Ball Star Roundtable, Part 3

This is the final installment of the Roundtable, which I hope becomes an annual or maybe even semi-regular feature here at Ball Star.

For a refresher on who we're talking to, click here.

In Part 1, we got personal. In Part 2 we got opinions.

Here in Part 3, we get predictions.

And while you're here, how bowt entering the First Very Official Ball Star Over-Under Challenge?.

Triple crown stats for Billy Butler, Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen, and one other hitter of your choosing:

Molde:
Billy Butler: .302 BA/17 HR/83 RBI
Alex Gordon: .283 BA/23 HR/76 RBI
Mark Teahen: .294 BA/11 HR/68 RBI
Ryan Shealy: .268 BA/18 HR/71 RBI

McDonald:
Butler: 18 HRs, 78 RBI, .277 BA. (with weird playing time patterns early and then a second-half tear)
Gordon: 23 HRs, 91 RBI, .282 BA.
Teahen: 13 HRs, 62 RBI, .295 BA.
DeJesus: 13 HRs, 65 RBI, .288 BA.

Wow, these all look weird and inaccurate. I'm confident we'll see a mini power surge from DeJesus, but the rest… I don't know.

Warren:
Billy Butler: 21 / 94 / .294
Alex Gordon: 19 / 81 /.275
Mark Teahen: 18 / 75 / .277
David DeJesus: 7/ 62 /.280

Brown:
Butler: .300, 22 HR, 85 RBI
Gordon: .265, 18 HR, 70 RBI
Teahen: .285, 13 HR, 75 RBI
Guillen: .295, 25 HR, 100 RBI

I think Butler is going to have a solid year, Gordon will improve but not enough to make us stop worrying about him and Teahen will flash some power again.

Guillen will perform to his expectations.

Tao: These questions always taunt my better sensibilities – I'd say Gordon will bat .310 with 30 HRs and 110 RBIs if not for fear of being laughed away.

Butler: .300, 20 HR, 86 RBI
Gordon: .309, 29 HR, 109 RBI
Teahen: .275, 19 HR, 79 RBI
Callapso: .310, 7 HR, 56 RBI

Sanford:
Butler: .312/18/95
Gordon:.275/24/95
Teahen: .288/12/81
Greinke: .250/2/3

Triple crown stats for Brian Bannister, Zack Greinke, Gil Meche and whoever you think the fifth starter will be:

Molde:
Brian Bannister: 4.08 ERA/13 wins/83 SO
Zack Greinke: 3.23 ERA/15 wins/165 SO
Gil Meche: 3.46 ERA/17 wins/161 SO
Luke Hochevar: 4.87 ERA/8 wins/57 SO (will get called up in May or June)

McDonald:
Bannister: 13 wins, 4.42 ERA, 80 Ks
Greinke: 16 wins, 4.17 ERA, 150 Ks
Meche: 14 wins, 4.40 ERA, 156 Ks (his exact total the last two years)

So I guess this is where it becomes clear I'm still pessimistic. Yesterday I read yet another breakdown on Bannister. I think this is a case of the revisionism going too far, and overstating the case. What I mean is, initially everyone pointed out that his low K-rate/mediocre stuff meant he couldn't repeat his successful '07. Then, everyone pointed out how thoughtful he is, and how he was an outlier and all the rest. Maybe both sides went too far, but where does that leave us? Back where we started. Here's another, possibly more important thing: in 2006, Bannister worked 80 innings, in 2007, he threw 185. That's a massive workload increase, and there's a lot of evidence that the year after an increase like that is usually a bit rough.

Warren:
Brian Bannister: 14 / 99 / 4.46
Zack Greinke: 14 / 122 / 3.99
Gil Meche: 15 / 160 / 4.48
Luke Hochevar: 11 / 185 / 4.98

Brown:Gil Meche will tell you Wins don't mean a thing for a starting pitcher, but here goes...

Bannister: 11 Wins, 4.33 ERA, 97 strikeouts
Greinke: 16 Wins, 3.87 ERA, 156 strikeouts
Meche: 13 Wins, 4.04 ERA, 155 strikeouts

The fifth starter will be a combination of cast-offs, has-beens and never-weres. Combined, they'll have 7 Wins, a 6.31 ERA and 85 strikeouts. I don't even want to think about who will pitch in that role during the season because it depresses me and gives me a headache. Jeez, those numbers stink, but they're better than Jose Lima!

And yes, I'm buying Greinke stock (again.)

Tao:
Bannister: 11 W, 4.25 ERA, 90 K
Greinke: 13 W, 3.90 ERA, 165 K
Meche: 15 W, 3.75 ERA, 166 K
Tomko: 8 W, 4.78 ERA, 110 K

Sanford:
Bannister: 13-9/4.27/112 K
Meche: 16-10/3.85/156
Greinke: 18-7/3.24/201
Hochevar: 8-9/4.51/131

I went a little crazy with the Greinke prediction, but I’m an optimist. You could probably just as easily project him to go 7-18.

Predict the Royals’ 2008 record:

Molde: Like I mentioned above, this season's success or failure depends on many things falling into place. If the team can avoid the dreaded “injury bug,” I really feel that it has the potential to open some eyes, and make a move up the A.L. Central standings. I would be tremendously disappointed if the Royals once again finish fifth in the division. I think Trey Hillman has a track record of being a great motivator, and he's proven his ability to adapt to what he has to work with, adjust, and overcome, in order to succeed. I think the Royals will be in a three-way battle with the Twins and White Sox for third place in the division, and the offense will be more toward the middle of the pack in the A.L., rather than at the bottom of the heap like it's been in recent years. The Royals will head into September with a record close to .500, but 13 of 25 games in that final month are against Detroit (3), Cleveland (6), or Seattle (4), and they'll fall just short of the .500 mark. In the end, I believe that Kansas City will have made another modest step toward respectability, while shedding the “awful” tag that has preceded the name Royals for so long by finishing 2008 with a record of 78-84.

McDonald: 79-83.

Warren: I make a prediction every year at Royal Reflections and every year I feel uncomfortable doing so. So many variables go into a season. All I can do is offer a guess, and my guess for this season is 77-85.

Brown: I think we'll see a slight improvement. The offense will be a little better, while the pitching will be a little worse. I wish I could say I think the team is going to make huge strides, but this season feels more modest in expectations.
74-88.

Tao:79-83.

Sanford: I predicted 82-80 in 2007, and I’m sticking with it this year as well.

Predict the next year the Royals make the playoffs and whether Dayton Moore and Trey Hillman will be in their current positions when it happens:

Molde: It took Trey Hillman two years to get the Hoikkaido Nippon Ham Fighters into the playoffs, and four years to win the Japan Series. Yes, that's in Japan, and not in Major League Baseball, but that was without a GM like Dayton Moore. I think the two of them make a good team. I really think that, IF Alex Gordon and Billy Butler produce like experts feel they're capable of, and IF Jose Guillen continues to hit 20+ home runs and drive in around 100 RBI, and IF Moore can find two starters to strengthen the back end of the rotation behind Gil Meche, Brian Bannister, and Zack Greinke, the Royals could compete for the Wild Card in 2009. I realize that those are quite a few “ifs,” and it likely will take some trades, and another solid free agent veteran or two to fill some holes. It's more likely that 2010 will be the breakout year, but anything is possible -- even 2008, for all the Royals dreamers out there.

McDonald: This is when it gets tough. 2010 seems to be the easy answer. Here's my real feeling through, if the Royals aren't genuinely close by 2009, then this current group never will be. I'll dream a little and say that this indeed happens, and the Royals win 89 games in 2009, and defeat the Indians in a one-game playoff in Cleveland.

Warren: There are too many variables to make such a prediction--injuries, free agent signings, player development, purse strings, strength of teams in the division, etc. I couldn't possibly make such a prediction and feel confident about it.

Brown:I think 2010 is a realistic guess. By then, Gordon and Butler will be in their fourth seasons and that gives the system enough time to develop a couple of starters and GMDM some time to swing some deals to patch the holes in the roster.

And GMDM and Hillman will most certainly be around. I think we're entering a period of stability this organization hasn't seen since Mr. K died in 1993.

This is a good time to be a Royals fan.

Anthony Tao: 2009. Hillman most certainly will be in his current position, and I've sort of staked my blog to Moore's tenure, so he better be around.

Sanford: It’s tough to see them competing this year, unless Butler, Gordon, Teahen and DeJesus all have big years while the starting pitching continues to improve. If everything goes as planned, and the team actually does finish a few games over .500 this year, the Royals could feasibly enter 2009 with a legitimate hope of making the playoffs. I think Hillman and Moore will still be in their present capacities.