Your offseason forecast: not so good, with a chance of frustration

"Plus, he can't hit unless he gets lucky and the ball connects with his upper-cut swing." - You must be talking about Mark Teahen, Mike Jacobs and Jose Guillen...Good thing we never have all three of them in the same lineup...
JT

You brought it up, not me.

Randy Johnson, 29
19-8, 3.24 ERA, 136 ERA+, 308 K/99 BB

Just as a reminder,
Luke Hochevar, 25
7-13, 6.55 ERA, 67 ERA+, 106 K/46 BB

And, finally, I'll defer to a Poz blog post a few weeks ago: "Since World War II ended there have been 16 pitchers who have made 25 starts in a season and put up an ERA higher than 6.50.

...So what’s the point? Luke Hochevar, of course. He became the 17th pitcher this season."

Yes, he had some extremely good (some might even say, historically good) starts - but his season, on a whole, was historically bad. Let's temper our expectations here. Honestly, I don't think a move to relief would be terrible for Hoch. It's been a truism of managing that you don't write off a starter until you try him as a reliever - not only because he can succeed out of the pen, but often because it provides a confidence boost and eventually a successful return to the rotation. See Greinke, Zack (also, someone I'm optimistic about: Robinson Tejeda).

That said, are we going to give up on Hochevar and Gordon? Of course not. We're already pot committed with those two. Even if they play mediocre/bad/historically bad baseball over the next few seasons, they'll both have MORE than their fair amount of major league time before the Royals finally write them off as busts. That's simply because we have no other option but to hope that they pan out.

The truth is, they need to trade Grienke and Soria. None of us want to see them do it because it's been so long since we've had a transcendent player wearing a KC uniform that we don't want to give Greinke (or to a lesser extent Soria) up, but if they're serious about rebuilding the franchise, that's the best path they can take.

We all thought going into last year that the team was building to contender status in 2010, but what this past season showed us is that not only is 2010 not realistic, but 2011 is probably out of the question too. The problems going into 2010 -- no money, too many bad contracts, no trade options, have been detailed by Sam, Poz, Dutton, etc., much better than I can. The bottom line is we're left hoping Hochevar, Gordon and someone surprising like Tejeda all have breakout years in 2010. The odds of that happening are extremely slim, and even if it did happen we'd still be miles behind the Yankees and Red Sox, and really we wouldn't even be clearcut favorites in the division. The minor league talent isn't going to arrive in effective fashion until 2011 or 2012, if it arrives at all (Hosmer and Moose were both disappointments this year).

So yeah, I don't want to lose Grienke and Soria either, but the current situation is such that even if all the breaks go our way, the best we'll be during their current contracts is moderately competitive. And then at the end of the agreements we either lose them to free agency or have to trade them at a discount ala Beltran.

But if we bite the bullet and trade them now, we can instantly restock the system with talent at the AAA and/or ML level. Seriously, what would Grienke be worth in today's market, considering his age, freindly contract and performance? I can't think of anybody in the last decade who would be a more valuable commodity. And while Soria wouldn't draw nearly as much, he's still a top closer, which is worth much more to a contender than to a 70 win team.

Anyway, the Process right now looks like it will at best make us "okay" in the next 3 or 4 years before we inevitably lose Grienke. And again, that's only if everything goes our way. I'd say it's more likely we're still floundering three years from now. But even if you believe we can become competitive, that's not really what we ought to be shooting for. Blow up the team, trade the few valuable pieces we have, and you have a chance to start over with an organization stocked with young, inexpensive talent, which is the only way a market like KC can really be competitive. It'd suck, and it would make the fan base irate, but really, they've taken this much abuse over the last 20 years anyway, so what's another couple of disastrous years going to do to them? they're in it for the long haul (even Rany, who'll be back and full of optimism next spring).

Of course, Moore would never do this because he'd be gone before the whole plan came to fruition. And even if he did do it, I'm sure he'd probably trade Greinke for 5 first basemen who can't field, run or take a pitch. But I'm just saying, all things being equal, dealing Grienke and Soria now -- painful as it would be -- is the smart thing to do.

Huskergut,
You've summed up what I've been saying since late August. The very thought of trading Greinke makes my skin crawl. He's the biggest thing to happen to the Royals since, well, I can't remember. Think about it. Appier, Cone, Sweeney, Damon, Dye, Beltran, none of them compare to the affection that the fans have for Greinke. If he became part of the turnaround and the team just simply became a perennial playoff team, I predict he would be loved equally as much as Brett or White.

However, the sad thing is that there is another option. Glass could realize that he already has the building blocks in Greinke, Soria & Butler (& perhaps 1 or 2 others that haven't emerged yet) to go out and spend some real money on real players while we still have them under contracts. Doing so could convince Greinke & Soria that the organization is serious & may garner a 'hometown' discount that might allow Glass to re-sign one or both of them. Also, over the 3-5 year 'spending spree' the team's minor league system would be replenishing to the point that when the FA contracts ran out, they, theoretically, would have the influx of new, cheap talent from the minors to replace the players we lose to free agency. If Moore does his job and continues to stock the minors with talent, the franchise could be recovered to the point that it could sustain success with a middle tier payroll like the Twins for instance. Problem solved.

Alas, this requires Glass to take a RISK and spend money out of his own pocket for several years to help repair the disaster he created over the last 15 years. Since that is unlikely to happen because he is a cheap bastard, the option of selling Greinke & Soria now while their value is high may, unfortunately for long suffering Royals fans, be the only way to turn the inevitable into something positive.

A prediction: Moore & Glass know that selling Greinke off, say, at next year's trade deadline would effectively destroy any credibility ownership has made with a long suffering fan base. They therefore, allow Greinke to remain with the club through 2011 hoping (as usual) that Greinke will do them another favor & take less than the market price for the pleasure of missing out on the playoffs & personal accolades. After no extension is agreed upon, Moore will shop Greinke at the trade deadline & trade him for the 2012 equivalent of Mark Teahen, John Buck & Mike Wood. Glass will then claim he did the best he could and cry poor-pitiful me & indirectly blame baseball economics & player greed for another lost player to free agency. And the cycle of ineptitude & cheap bargain basement baseball continues.

GOD, please deliver us from David Glass.

...is that the Royals can't view VORP the same way other teams can, because our upper minor leagues are so bereft of talent in most areas (exception: KK) that we just don't have those replacement-level guys available.