Greinke-ganda: Why a vote against Zack is a vote against logic

CC Sabathia starts for the Yankees tonight, Zack Greinke for the Royals tomorrow, and Felix Hernandez for the Mariners on Sunday.

At this point, Sabathia and Hernandez could each throw perfect games, and anything short of Zack missing the team bus won't keep him from winning the Cy Young Award and, probably, winning it by a bunch.

Originally, this was going to be a post about the 10 things that needed to happen for Zack to not win the Cy, but I got stuck after this:

10. Zack personally punches each voter in the face.

So we're back to Greinke-ganda, and because I never did figure out how to run a poll on this blog, consider this your official guide to why a vote against Zack is a vote against logic.

Greinke's ERA is the lowest in the American League since Pedro Martinez at the height of his powers in 2000.

Greinke currently has 237 strikeouts in 223 1/3 innings with an ERA that's less than half the league average. There are only seven pitchers since 1901 who've matched that: Roger Clemens, Pedro Martinez, Dwight Gooden, Ron Guidry, Bob Gibson, Pete Alexander and Walter Johnson.

In his losses and no-decisions, Greinke's ERA (3.23) is nearly identical to Sabathia's overall ERA (3.21).

Greinke trails Sabathia by three wins, but take away each pitcher's games against last-place teams, and they're tied with 12 wins each.

Against winning teams, Greinke is 7-4 with a 1.24 ERA.

Eric Wedge called Greinke's franchise-record 15-strikeout domination of the Indians the best-pitched game he'd ever seen in the big leagues. Wedge has since been fired, of course, but he also managed the American League's last two Cy Young winners.

The awkwardness comes in that Greinke has had five starts this year better than the one Wedge thought was the best he'd ever seen, at least according to Bill James' Game Score. They are:

* April 18 at Texas: 9 IP, 7 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K. Zack's had better games statistically, but gets extra points here for doing it at Texas, against that lineup, and on a night where Millwood was almost as good.

* Aug. 30 at Seattle: 9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. Last pitcher to throw a complete game one-hitter at Seattle was Nolan Ryan.

* April 24 vs Detroit: 9 IP, 3 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 10 K. Kauffman Stadium was just electric this night, a sold out crowd really allowing themselves to believe in Greinke's greatness for the first time, and even hoping the Royals could compete.

* May 4 vs Chicago: 9 IP, 6 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 10 K. "That's the best performance I've seen in a long time by any major-league pitcher," White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen said. "It reminded me of when we came here one day and we faced Bret Saberhagen and he no-hit us. (Greinke's) got better stuff than Bret did at that particular time."

* May 26 vs Detroit: 9 IP, 6 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 8 K. Greinke wanted to end the game with a strikeout on a 62 mph curveball -- "so I could talk trash to Soria," he said -- but it fluttered outside for a ball. Instead, he ended it on his next pitch, a nasty slider. "Kid's got a lot of equipment," Tigers manager Jim Leyland said.

Greinke actually has a better ERA after the All-Star break (1.97) than before (2.12). Both numbers are best in the league.

He is contractually prohibited from pitching against the Royals.

If Greinke pitches 8 2/3 innings, gives up 13 earned runs and records -26 strikeouts, he'll match Felix Hernandez's season stats.

Greinke has given up two or fewer earned runs in nine starts without getting a win. Hernandez has seven such starts, and Sabathia has four (including one he left after 1 1/3 innings).

If you go start by start and give Greinke Hernandez's run and bullpen support, and vice versa, Greinke would be 18-5 and Hernandez 12-11.

According to advanced metrics, the Royals have the worst defense in the American League, and according to ERA, they also have the worst bullpen. Without poisoning his food, it's hard to think of how Greinke's teammates could've helped him less.