Some thoughts on Luke Hochevar while hoping the Royals and Chiefs don't start some Truman Sports Complex turf war over the K-Crew.
Hochevar turned 26 last week. He's older than Zack Greinke and Joakim Soria, older than Cole Hamels, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Josh Johnson and a whole other host of guys making impacts in the major leagues.
The Royals drafted him first overall, the pick of the 2006 draft litter, because they said he was the closest to making an impact in the big leagues. They thought Hoch had the shortest learning curve. Tim Lincecum, also drafted that year, has since won a Cy Young Award and started the All-Star game.
Hoch was at it again last night, four scoreless innings against the Red Sox where you think he has something, then a disastrous, eight-straight-reach-base fifth inning* where it all falls apart.
* Plivvy asks the money question in the comments: Of the innings in which Luke gives up run(s), what percentage of those innings involves him giving up 3+ runs?
Now, this comes with the usual caveat about my math, but the answer is an even 50 percent. The American League average this year is 21 percent.
Hoch has allowed zero runs -- I didn't count fractions of innings -- in 70 percent of his innings, which is almost identical to the league average (72 percent). But he's allowed three or more runs in 10 percent of his innings, nearly twice the league average of 6 percent.
So, yeah, there's a mathematical representation of what we all see.
This is the guy who -- even on a staff with Zack Greinke -- has three of the best starts of the season: an 80-pitch complete game against the Reds, 13 strikeouts and no walks in seven scoreless against the Rangers, and a three-hit shutout just last week against the White Sox.
This is also the guy who has given up more runs than innings in eight of his starts -- more than once every three tries. His ERA is now 5.98, which is not only terrible, but would rank dead last in baseball if he had enough innings to qualify.
The play in Oakland, when Rajai Davis took third base while Hoch walked back to the mound in a daze, is already being used by some as the anecdote for his career.
Among pitchers with more than 40 starts by their age 25 season (Hoch just made his 46th), he has the 16th-worst ERA since 1901. Nos. 1-15 are a who's-who of busts: Chris George, Todd Van Poppel, Chad Durbin, and Dewon Brazelton among them.
Recently, someone told Hoch he was tipping his pitches. He was disheartened at feeling like he'd wasted two years of getting hit hard, but encouraged that he'd found the secret combination to lasting success.
Many baseball people rolled their eyes at that. They've so far been proven right. Hoch has had three starts since then, and it's followed the same pattern as before: two disasters (five runs in five innings against the Indians, six runs in five innings against Boston) and one gem (the three-hit shutout).
This isn't written as the obituary to Hoch's potential to be a successful starting pitcher in the big leagues. His highs are too high to ignore, and the Royals are still in a position where they can be patient.
But the patience won't last forever.
One reason the organization gave for not promoting Hochevar faster was that he was working on a few things out of the stretch.
Judging by his numbers, the problem seems clear. Whatever he does in the windup he cannot do in the stretch. As long as he sails along without baserunners, he is OK. However, when he works out of the stretch he cannot pitch effectively and is susceptible to big innings.