Some quick thoughts as the Royals officially close their 2009 draft by signing Aaron Crow, the No. 12-overall pick and 2008 Big 12 pitcher of the year from Missouri.
Check back later today for a little exercise that may or may not add anything to the AL MVP debate.
If it matters, I think the Royals "won" the negotiation, but not by a blowout.
The Royals give out just a $1.5 million signing bonus -- MLB's slot recommendation was about $1.7 million -- and are able to spread the rest of the money across three years. The Royals get a talented college pitcher who's close to being ready for the big leagues at below market value, which is always a good thing.
On the other hand, Crow and his negotiating team, Hendricks Sports Management, had little to no leverage here. The Royals had a good draft even without Crow (more on this later), and probably could've driven the price down even further with the safety net of having next year's No. 13 pick if Crow didn't sign.
Toward that end, Crow did not want to sit out another year and be one step closer to Matt Harrington.
Crow and his team get a package that will most likely end up being worth $3.5 to $4.25 million. On the low end, that's what they turned down last year from the Nationals*. On the high end, it's more of what they were asking for last year.
The reality, of course, is that either way Crow lost money by not signing last year. Not only does he lose a year of playing, a potential year of big league service time, but he would need to pitch two of the next three years in the big leagues to reach that $4.25 figure. Figuring in the big league minimum salary, he'd have surpassed that even with the $3.5 million bonus the Nationals offered last year.
* This has been written here before, several times, but to blindly crush Crow as greedy because he didn't sign with the Nationals last year isn't completely fair. Baseball people without a dog in that fight say there were reasons beyond money for Crow not to sign, and it's worth mentioning that the Nationals' GM at the time, Jim Bowden, is not only no longer there, but resigned amid a federal investigation into the team's Dominican scouting.
Just sayin'.
Crow grew up in Topeka, went to Mizzou, and is apparently a lifelong Royals fan.
I'm not sure how many lifelong Royals fans under the age of 25 who also happen to be among the game's very best pitching prospects exist, but it figures that the Royals just signed a big chunk of the demographic.
With David Glass' blessing and checkbook, a front office headed by Dayton Moore and a strong band of scouts appears to have put together their best draft.
We pause here to point out the obvious: this doesn't make up for a completely disappointing season, and, besides, nobody can really be sure what this draft class will ever accomplish.
But in Crow, high school catcher Wil Myers, and college lefty Chris Dwyer, the Royals drafted and signed (for a combined $6.45 million in guarantees) three players they evaluated as first-round picks. They did this even without their second-round pick, which they lost as compensation for signing type-A free agent Juan Cruz.
There is no way the Royals could've expected it to happen this way, but it's hard to see how their draft would've been much better with the second-round pick. It's possible they would've been able to overpay for another prospect with that pick, but the draft fell in a weird way where there weren't a lot of over-slot signings between the Royals' forfeited second-round pick and when they took Myers in the third round.
There's a decent chance that Crow enters as the organization's best overall prospect, at least in some evaluations. Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas slipped this year in the minds of some, leaving 6-foot-5 lefty Mike Montgomery -- 6-4, 2.21 ERA, .201 BAA at Class A this year -- as the system's best prospect.
Crow hasn't pitched in what you'd call a highly competitive environment since the spring of 2008, so big declarations are a bit premature, but some will no doubt view his quick-to-the-bigs stuff as the best in the system.
The Royals are improving pretty dramatically in the minor leagues, but one place that screams out as a weakness is that every year, it seems, their best prospect is the guy they took in the first round of the most recent draft.
That's all for now. Back soon with some Joe Mauer/MVP thoughts.
http://bases.nbcsports.com/2009/09/the-royals-sign-aaron-crow.html.php
"Upshot: he moved from a bad organization to a worse one, and cost himself half a million bucks and a year's development time. You're never sad when someone makes you a millionaire, but I have to think that the holdout wasn't worth it."
Trust the Process.