Royals and Aaron Crow

Royals and Aaron Crow

Sure looks like the Royals are close to signing third-round draft pick Wil Myers* and fourth-round pick Chris Dwyer** in advance of Monday's midnight deadline.

* Expect a bonus in the neighborhood of $1.8 million to $2 million for the uber-athletic catcher with a potentially good bat regardless of whether he sticks at the position.

** Baseball America is reporting that the Royals and Dwyer agreed to terms on a $1.45 million bonus, which would be a record for the fourth round. The Royals are denying that anything is done.

Assuming that happens, the Royals will turn their attention to the negotiations with first-round and No. 12 overall pick Aaron Crow. And before we get started here, a quick reminder: Crow is NOT being advised by Scott Boras.

It's actually kind of impressive. A friend pointed out yesterday how many people are under the impression that Crow -- who turned down $3.5 million last year from the NatInals -- is being advised by Boras.

And it's true. Message boards are full of the thought. So is my inbox. It's like Boras has created this universe where hardline negotiations are now just "Boras-es."

It's like Band-Aid taking over for the term adhesive bandage. Bravo, Boras. Bravo.

Anyway, for the record, Crow is being advised by Hendricks Sports Management, led by brothers Randy and Alan Hendricks, whose most famous client is/was Roger Clemens (pictured above giving an award of some sort to Crow).

Actually, now that I think about it, here's what a National League scouting director told me the day after the draft: "they're not Boras, but they're trying to be. They'll try to do all the same things. Like Boras Lite."

Whatever, Randy Hendricks was in Kansas City last week for talks that he described as "very productive and professional."

The two sides don't appear to be all that close. Baseball's informal-but-monitored slot recommendation for the 12th pick is about $1.7 million. Crow figures to get significantly more than that, but now's where you enter the hazy part.

If for no other reason than ego and pride, you have to think Crow and his advisers would like to at least get the $3.5 million they turned down last year*.

* Crow has caught more than the deserved amount of flak for this from the knee-jerk reaction crowd. Yes, he turned down $3.5 million, and that's always going to be absurd on some level.

But there's another side to this that people often miss, the side about the NatInals' handling of negotiations and overall dysfunctional franchise. There are baseball people with nothing at stake here who are sympathetic to Crow and his reasons for not signing with the NatInals.

It's a stare-down at the moment.

Crow's side is waiting for the Royals to admit they can afford a little extra money to sign a guy who would immediately become the organization's best pitching prospect, and, depending on how you judge such things, best overall prospect. An AL scouting director told me before the draft that Crow is good enough that, had he signed with the NatInals last year, there's a good chance he'd be in the big leagues right now.

Meanwhile, the Royals are waiting for Crow's side to say, hey, $3 million (or $2.5 million, or $3.25 million, or...whatever) is a lifetime worth of wealth and this is an organization we're comfortable with, and who are we kidding? There's no way we want to sit out another year, delay our big league debut and potential free agency two years and risk becoming the next Matt Harrington.

It still looks and feels like something will get done because it means too much to both sides not to. But with Crow being exempt from the Monday deadline, it is getting a little more cloudy.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on August 14, 2009 - 7:47am.
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Submitted by zmega on August 16, 2009 - 3:41pm.

So Crow is justified in not taking the Nats above-market offer, since they're dysfunctional, but he should be honored to join the Royals, with their Yankee-like history? Face reality - Crow is a greedy jerk.

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Submitted by IWasTherein85 on August 15, 2009 - 8:12am.

A negotiating point here may be the issue of whether Crow's value has declined due to the year's delay of the start of his professional career. I have seen (among others) Luke Hochevar used as an example of someone who may have lost an edge due to this. Of course, Crow's advisors will have to fight this as long as possible for obvious reasons.

Submitted by Marmot on August 15, 2009 - 6:00am.

There's only about 3 weeks left in most minor league team's seasons. I would really have to say that Crow has now missed two seasons of competative baseball (no offense to the Fort Worth Beef Barrons or whatever they call themselves).

Submitted by sw3519 on August 14, 2009 - 2:59pm.

In addition to looking greedy and idiotic for sitting out two years, he would get a lot of flak as a hometown kid for turning down his supposed favorite team. Three million is a fair offer; Hochevar got 3.5 million as the first overall pick and I can't see any reason that Crow should get more. I don't blame him for not signing with the Nationals though, that organization is clearly extremely messed up. The Royals are deeply flawed in many ways but they have good starting pitchers, so you'd have to think that developmentally Crow would be better off on the Royals than the Nationals.

Submitted by bobtelos on August 14, 2009 - 10:09am.

Dayton Moore has shown an aptitude with the draft. Look at Moustakas and Hosmer, who both got more than Crow, and are totally destroying Single-A.

Just another easy situation for the Bravest GM in the AL, who knows that one small misstep will lead to harsh and penetrating criticism from the vicious KC media. I mean, Willie Bloomquist is only a few more home runs away from being replacement level, for Schuerholz's sake!

Trust the Process.

Submitted by setupunchtag on August 14, 2009 - 1:13pm.

"Look at Moustakas and Hosmer, who both got more than Crow, and are totally destroying Single-A."

Are you trying to be sarcastic? Because if .255 BA, .297 OBP and .717 OPS for Moustakas, and .190 BA at Wilmington and .254 at Burlington for Hosmer is 'totally destroying', then you have a very singular opinion of what 'totally destroying' means. "Hosmer and Moustakas have totally participated in Single-A" would be a much more accuate statement.

"one small misstep"? Which ONE would that be? Trading JP Howell for Gathright? Ramirez for Crisp? Nunez for Jacobs? or Affeldt for Shealy? Or Jeff Keppinger for Russ Haltiwanger? Or was that one small misstep the signing of Guillen? or Tomko? or Yabuta? or Farnsworth? or Bale? or Horatio Ramirez? Or in the draft missing on Weiters? Or Posey? Or Smoak? Beckham? Or Lincecum? Or Longoria? Or Porcello? Matuz?

"Trust the Process". Which process? The one where the Royals acquire every low-OBP player in baseball, insert them into their line-up, and then wonder why they won't score 600 runs? Or the process where they fill the bottom of their minor leagues FIRST with high school players when there's no talent at the ML or upper minor leagues so there's a five year lag between the time players are picked and the time they produce? Or the process where you get HAD in every trade that didn't involve Ambrioux Burgos?

Please tell me you were kidding and I didn't get it. At least then, I'M the one who looks stupid.

Submitted by Karte on August 14, 2009 - 4:50pm.

Sometimes it's hard to pick up in print form, but that post was triple-coated with it.

Submitted by bobtelos on August 16, 2009 - 9:34pm.

thank you

Submitted by JMGesling on August 14, 2009 - 10:59am.

I think that they have great upside, and still have a lot to learn, but I wouldn't call Moose (.238 BA) and Hosmer (.200 BA) destroying A-Adv.

Regardless, I do agree that Crow will sign, with Hochevar as an example. Lets hope Crow ends up like Luke, who I believe will be a good 2 or 3 starter.

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 14, 2009 - 1:27pm.

When reading about numbers at different levels of the minors, I feel like I have always read that numbers for hitters are largely deflated at the A levels, and largely inflated at the AA levels. So hitting .250 with an OPS above 700 really is pretty decent for A ball... (especially for a 20 year old with fewer than 1000 minor league AB's)
Moustakas tied for the league lead (I think) with 22 home runs last season. That should tell you something about what kind of slugging numbers to expect at A ball.

Also... Hosmer and Moustakas are due to turn 21 and 20 after this season is over, so lets not count them out yet because they are at the same level as college-going draftees who are 3 to 4 years older... If they move up a level per year they'll both be in the majors at 23 years old... as long as they are ready that sounds good to me.

Submitted by TheHawkster on August 14, 2009 - 12:13pm.

Batting Average as the only measure? Come on Snakedizzle, you are better than that.

Submitted by cpass on August 14, 2009 - 1:04pm.

Hosmer .526 at Wilmington (High A), .734 at Burlington (A)
Moustakas .717 all at Wilmington

Yep, that's tearing it up. (And yes, I'm being sarcastic.)

How about this for a nice commentary on our twin phenoms? Guaranteed to further depress.

Submitted by stpat on August 14, 2009 - 11:11am.

I think he was being facetious. Clearly the jury is still out on Moustakas & Hosmer. So too is the 'process.'

Submitted by bobtelos on August 16, 2009 - 9:34pm.

I know it's tough in the intertubez, but some readers here are to detecting sarcasm what Dayton Moore is to detecting good position players.

Submitted by Karte on August 14, 2009 - 8:34am.

I think this deal has to get done, but I doubt it will be for as much as the Natinals (love that name) offered last year. Crow just doesn't have the leverage he had before. If he looks logically at next year, what are the chances he gets a higher draft/better offer? Not very good, I think.

I would also be surprised if Strasburg gets signed.

Sam, do you know what compensation pick (if any) the Royals get if Crow doesn't sign?

Submitted by cpass on August 14, 2009 - 8:41am.

The compensation pick is the same pick plus one in the round. Since Crow was drafted 12th overall, that means the Royals would get the 13th overall pick next year if they do not sign him.

Submitted by HireFrankWhite on August 16, 2009 - 2:13pm.

Why does he keep getting a pass. The guy hits .210 with no power and couldn't throw out my grandma stealing second on a pitch out. You could pay me 3 million per and I could match his numbers and I'm a left handed slightly overweight 36 year old guy that lives in my moms basement. Heck with the 3 mil I could move out.

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