Julio Lugo, Brock Lesnar, Yuniesky Betancourt, Dayton Moore, and you

Julio Lugo, Brock Lesnar, Yuniesky Betancourt, Dayton Moore, and you

Well, the last thing you probably need is another post about Yuniesky Betancourt. But here goes anyway.

You may have seen by now the report by Ken Rosenthal that the Red Sox are willing to eat virtually all of shortstop Julio Lugo's contract in a trade.

Lugo is making $9 million this season, and due $9 million next season, when he'll be 34. There is a reason that the Red Sox are this desperate, of course, and it has as much to do with Lugo's declining production as the nice surprise that Boston's had with Nick Green.

The Royals, you know, just gave up two minor league pitchers for Betancourt, 27, and are responsible for about $5 million over the next 2 1/2 seasons, plus either the $2 million buyout or $6 million club option for 2012.

Assuming Rosenthal's information is correct -- and is almost always is -- you might assume Betancourt is the better player.

You'd be wrong:

Lugo: .284/.352/.367, 0.59 WPA, -8.2 UZR.

Betancourt: .250/.278/.330, -0.64 WPA, -8.2 UZR.

Now, the difference here is that Betancourt is 27 (he turns 28 in January) and Lugo is 33 (he turns 34 in November).

But the fact remains that the Royals gave up more to get a shortstop who is producing less. Lugo is older, obviously, and maybe he's about to break down.

But would it be worth the chance to see if he could continue to be an average offensive shortstop with admittedly declining defensive value through the end of next season?

Again, if Rosenthal's information is correct, it would've cost the Royals virtually nothing. And if they really believe in minor leaguer Jeff Bianchi -- Dayton Moore yesterday compared Bianchi's development this year to what Kila Ka'aihue did last year -- they'd have a cheap and probably better replacement option ready by 2011.

The Royals' scouts -- and they're not the only ones who believe this -- think Betancourt still has the talent to be a good big league shortstop, the old change-of-scenery logic, and still see a potential Gold Glove shortstop.

Dayton is hearing the criticism. He went on 810 the other day to defend the Betancourt deal, and then during the workout yesterday went out of his way to point out that the Willie Bloomquist and Gil Meche deals -- also mostly criticized -- have worked out.

At this point, there just is no middle ground. Betancourt will either be motivated and happy and productive in his new environment, at which point Dayton and his people would be justified re-enacting Brock Lesnar's celebration from UFC 100.

But the Royals' front office better be right about this, because even though he didn't give up much, if Dayton is eventually fired without making a run at the postseason with the Royals, this Betancourt trade may very well be the moment we look back on where it all started to go wrong.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on July 17, 2009 - 8:00am.
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Submitted by ribman on July 19, 2009 - 2:05pm.

Betancourt

no matter who we bring in this season is dust, it's about looking ahead and spending limited resources smartly. We passed on several SS's in last 2 drafts, that are close to major league ready, why not address our SS crisis there and save our money for quality established players

Submitted by eakers on July 19, 2009 - 9:28am.

Lugo has only 123 PAs so far this year, and you are ready to say that he is way better than Betancourt? 2 or 3 years ago, I would have taken Lugo, but he showing signs of being too old to be productive anymore.

Submitted by cattlecall on July 18, 2009 - 10:02pm.

Hillman must go... No defending it now like in the article, Dayton.

Had to listen in the car tonight... This Steve Stewart guy has the most UNLISTENABLE diction, cadence and voice I have ever heard... Please take him away with Trey...

Submitted by Robert Denby on July 18, 2009 - 11:37am.

Not to be Captain Bringdown for Dayton, but since May, Bloomquist is hitting .270/.305/.376, and it's not trending positively.

Submitted by dedo on July 17, 2009 - 11:14pm.

I have defended the Betancourt acquistion on this and other blogs as a necessary evil. My main points were:
1) The Royals have no ML SS and Betancourt approaches that.
2) $7 mil over 2 years is probably about $3 mil more than you would hope to spend on a stop-gap but that is at YBs current low levels of production. If he gives anything else, we can eat into the $3 mil.
3) Saito and Cortes have almost no value to the Royals except as trade bait for journeymen. If the Royals high picks are not slated for quick MLB service, we cannot wait around on them to develop and hope we get lucky.

Having said all of that, when Lugo was released, I thought, "SOB, this should have been our stop-gap."

Submitted by cattlecall on July 17, 2009 - 9:20pm.

Would have been a NICE TIME for a 4 out save, but NO....

Way to lose a game in front of a FULLLLLLL HOUSE (Glass???????????????????????) AND when we score more runs than we do in a normal week.

PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPThetic.

Submitted by cattlecall on July 17, 2009 - 9:08pm.

Would have been a NICE TIME for a 4 out save, but NO....

Way to lose a game in front of a FULLLLLLL HOUSE (Glass???????????????????????) AND when we score more runs than we do in a normal week.

PPPPPPPPPPPPPPPThetic.

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 6:12pm.

Deleted by commentor

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 17, 2009 - 4:47pm.

So let me get this straight, we had a hurt TPJ AND Luis Hernandez AND Tug Hulett on our major league roster all at the same time, and the Red Sox are essentially throwing away Julio Lugo?

I say we snap him up, maybe that will light a fire under Betancourt's behind!

Submitted by John Dockter on July 17, 2009 - 10:56am.

1. I'd take Yuniesky Betancourt over Julio Lugo ANY day of the week regardless of this year's numbers; Lugo's best days are behind him.

2. One word can describe that picture: 'ROIDS!

Submitted by Jaminrawk on July 17, 2009 - 8:54am.

If the Royals wanted a 1st baseman that hit homeruns and was limited in batting average and defense, then why didn;t they just keep Nunez and call up Kila? Kila wasn't awful when he was called up last year and I would bet he will develop into a better player than Jacobs. Decisions like that are what makes me critical of Moore.

Submitted by scottma on July 17, 2009 - 8:47am.

Just saying.

Submitted by Jaminrawk on July 17, 2009 - 8:55am.

Can we just quit adding players from Seattle? They stink. Meche was a good move, the rest of them have been average or worse.

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 9:35am.

or Dayton's favorite, the ex-Brave ex-Mariner: that's why he acquired Horacio Ramirez twice.

He truly casts his net widely.

Scouting reports from Seattle and Atlanta in 2005 and 2006 must be much more reliable than those wacky defensive stats.

He's doing a heckuva job.

Prepare the parade route!

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 17, 2009 - 9:24am.

This is one that I don't get. We just keep adding players from one of the OTHER worst teams of the last decade. Do we really have that much faith in our coaching staff to turn a bunch of guys who are bad in Seattle to a bunch of guys who are good in KC?

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 8:33am.

I'm sorry he didn't have time to explain, in addition to Meche and Bloomquist (because Lord knows he'll continue on this "hot" streak throughout the contract), how he was also right about Mike Jacobs, Jose Guillen, Kyle Farnsworth, HoRam II, Ron Mahay, and Ross Gload.

So, yeah, the would TOTALLY be vindicated if Betancourt works out, since Meche, Bloomquist, and Betancourt are the only acquisitions that "count." Because it's not like those others are hamstring the club financially.

If Bianchi is making a leap like Kila, that makes even more sense out of the Betancourt trade: a pre-Moore acquisition makes a "leap," they clearly don't believe in him, so they acquire a terrible player to block him. Cf. Mike Jacobs. [32 HOME RUNS!!!!!111ONE]

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 17, 2009 - 9:12am.

You're going to include Ron Mahay in the "bad deals" category?
He was THE BEST shut down left handed set up man in the league last year until he hurt his foot at the end of the year, and after a very shaky start this year, he is still a 38 year old veteran major leaguer who has an ERA+ of 100 (meaning he is league average) and is making only a little bit above major league average salary.

And for the money (below major league average), Ross Gload was not a bad roster piece to have, we just used him incorrectly.

Mike Jacobs has been TERRIBLE, I agree, but if you are looking for some power on the cheap (yes, for an arbitration eligible player with over 30 home runs Mike Jacobs was inexpensive) that was the way to go. The other powerful alternative was Adam Dunn (who probably would have been worth paying double considering how good he has been and how bad Jacobs has been, and could he have been any worse in right field than Guillen?).

Sometimes you just get unlucky.

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 6:09pm.

you do realize that, even if Mahay was a league average pitcher (according to ERA+), that means that since he's a reliever, he's pretty much a replacement level player, right? I.E. worth a league minimunm contract?

So Dayton only overpaid about $3.6M for him last year.

Good thing players always get better with age. Relievers peak at 40, right?

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 9:39am.

That never happens!

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 17, 2009 - 4:49pm.

Any deal for a veteran player who ends up getting hurt turns into a bad deal? Like we should be able to figure out which 35 year old bullpen guys are going to have ligament damage in their feet? Give me a break.

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 6:07pm.

The injury thing is jsut icing on the cake. Or, if you're a Dayton Moore apologist, it's another "not that we're using injuries as an exicuse!" excuse. His overall numbers on the years resembled his prior few years of performance -- what a shock!

At 2/$8M, Mahay needed to be about 1 WAR each season to make the deal pay off. He didn't come close last season, and this season he's looking like a totallyl sunk cost, not unlike most of Dayton Moore's brilliant signings of mediocre veterans.

Submitted by plivvy on July 17, 2009 - 8:54pm.

...are worth more than just their pitching. Think about all the young pitchers that can be helped my a veteran. Do you think the Dodgers or Padres made a bad deal when they picked up Greg Maddux? Yeah, Mad Dog was way past his prime and had a 4+ ERA, but the knowledge he passed along to those young pitchers was worth every penny. Not to say you should sign every veteran, but I think Mahay was beneficial to Nunez and Ramirez. Then we traded them away, so that point is moot now, but the principle remains the same.
Paul L.

Submitted by bobtelos on July 17, 2009 - 9:45am.

since they doesn't factor in defense, batted-ball luck, etc. Especially over one season, and especially for relievers, since the sample sizes are so small they factor out luck.

Even figuring in leverage, Mahay was at best a 0.5 win above replacement player last season. That means he was worth, at most, half of his salary. That was a perfectly predictable outcome. And that's using FIP -- he was worse with that according to more sophisticated stats like tRA. And the Royals are on the hook for just as much for his replacement level performance this year.

Ross Gload might be okay at the minimum, but to not only given him an arb settlement (instead of cutting him and acquiring a nother replacement level, i.e., freely available player at the minimum), but a second year... why isn't Dayton Moore roundly mocked for this by the press whenever he mentions "payroll limitations."

Mike Jacobs... comparable to Adam Dunn? He's about 2.5 wins worse than Dunn with the bat so far this season. Guess what? This is what all those silly "bloggers" (who supposedly are going to be proved dead wrong about Betancourt, too) projected. He's a player who's so bad on defense, that Billy Butler starts every game at 1B. Oh, and he can't hit. He has 32 homers with a bit of luck and a lot of National League pitching. Even then he had a sub-.300 OBP. And he was horrible the year before that... He could be substantially better with the bat and he would still be a terrible player.

"Unlucky" is when you do the right thing that most informed observers would agree with and it goes bad. Almost all the people Dayton Moore is saying "were wrong about Gil Meche" also said that Guillen was terrible on defense/can't hit/when it was signed, said the Jacobs trade was terrible at the time the trade was made, know that ERA is a bad way to evaluate relievers, etc.

It's okay if fans aren't on board with projection, regression to the mean, the difficulty difference between leagues, defense-independent pitching stats, and the cost of a marginal win.

For a General Manager, it's a sign of incompetence.

Submitted by ribman on July 18, 2009 - 8:15pm.

I've heard rumors we have the games best closer .... haven't seen him
apparently we can only use him in the 9th ing
if ahead by 1-3 runs.

I'm sure we'll get him some work in Sunday's 15-1 blowout so he stays sharp. He's probably tired from pitching so
much over the AS break and you can't complain about
Bale and Cruz those guys are on fire- keep running them out there in the 8th what could go wrong- ah nevermind KC it's all good we got to eat nachos, winning is for those big cities.

Submitted by FrankWhiteHOF on July 20, 2009 - 1:49pm.

You forgot Wright and Colon being on fire. Oh and Farnsworth has been on fire all year too.

Submitted by almost ancient ... on July 21, 2009 - 4:09am.

As a true fan of baseball, it does sadden me to see the talent we waste up here in the Pacific Northwest. We gave away Lil' O and The Big Unit...for who?
ETC...

...and you people in KC cry about the talent you get from us???

Sure, I know we haven't given you George Brent, Jr ... but we don't have him. Gotta talk to George about that deal.

We could use Gil Meche now ... but we don't have him. We REALLY NEED Willie right now, but The Powers That Be wouldn't sign him to a minimum MLB contract, which is all it really would have taken to keep him 'home'.

Jose? We wouldn't renew his contract. Sure, he's run into trouble since he's been in KC, but he's still an everyday player, and like every journeyman, will or won't play himself outta his funk. Maybe the explosion he had ... based upon himself, will do some good.

Yuni? We got a couple of average AA arms for him, and now suffer with somebody with a batting average under The Mendoza Line. The expression, sadly enough, came from another Mariner's shortstop!

I know you haven't had a good run this year ... and prob'ly the way you see it, for a coupla years. It's part of the game, described by the elusive term "Chemistry". When you have it, you win ... when you don't, well...

Jamie Moyer and Raul Ibanez went to Philly ... remember Raul? You got him from us, and then gave him back. Look what he's doing now! And Jamie? Well, he's still throwing .600 ball, and now has a World Series ring to sport with his 250+ wins. Damn shame he spent twelve years w/the Mariners, because his lack of run support cost him a lock on the Hall of Fame.

It's a game, boys and girls, played by overly-talented humans, subject to the whims of everyday life. My question is: Are you a fan of the game? ... or are you a 'homer'?

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