So I heard that my friend Jeff Passan said the Royals have the most talent in the very winnable AL Central, and because I just watched the Tigers outscore the Royals 22-10 in three games at the K*, I asked him the only question I could think of.
Were you high?
* That includes 21-4 in games started by human and fallable pitchers, or, in layman's terms: non-Greinke games.
Anyway, Jeff says he had all his wits about him, and sends back a long and thoughtful e-mail that, if it didn't change my mind, certainly made me think it might be a little closer.
What follows makes the impossible assumption that all players are healthy. This impacts the way you think about key Royals like Joakim Soria, Alex Gordon and, depending on your skepticism, Gil Meche.
This is, obviously, almost purely subjective, which is always part of the fun of sports. But I think there is a divide among some Royals fans between those who demand the Royals win NOW, and those who think the rebuilding process still needs time.
The more we can analyze how the Royals stack up right now, the more we can figure out which side to join.
The three teams we're looking at here are the Royals, Twins and Tigers.
My first thought is that the Tigers are the most talented team in the division. They have perhaps the best hitter (Miguel Cabrera), perhaps the best athlete (Curtis Granderson) and some big-time frontline pitching (Justin Verlander, Edwin Jackson).
They are the team that, if everything goes right, can win enough games to run away from the Royals -- even if everything goes right in Kansas City.
But, like I say, it turns out a little closer than I would've thought. Here's how Passan eyeballs it, in order:
No. 1 starter: Greinke, Verlander, Baker.
No. 2: Meche, Jackson, Liriano.
No. 3: Slowey, Porcello, Davies.
No. 4: Blackburn, Bannister, Galarraga.
No. 5: Perkins/Swarzak tied with Willis, Hochevar.
Jeff notes there's a big gap between Verlander and Baker, and that the Twins' No. 5 and Willis could be flip-flopped.
Comment: Remember, we're assuming full strength, which helps Meche's cause. His history says he'll turn it around, but Jackson's present is pretty impressive, the need for PFP aside.
I'm also a believer in Galarraga. Long-term, I'd take him over Banny. But I can see this way, too.
Middle relief: Royals, Tigers, Twins.
Late relief: Cruz/Mahay, Zumaya/Perry, Guerrier/Mijares.
Closer: Nathan and Soria tied, Rodney.
Comment: This is essentially a spelled out way of showing what most of us have thought since spring training, that the Royals have the best pitching in the division.
There are some significant questions at a couple spots in the rotation, and the Royals have no chance in this thing if Meche doesn't pitch like himself.
But they also have -- by far -- the best pitcher in the division, which is quite a statement when one of the other teams has Verlander. And their bullpen -- big picture, here -- is the best of the three.
Having the best pitching is a good start to having the best talent. Let's go to the lineups:
C: Mauer, Buck/Olivo, Laird.
1B: Cabrera, Morneau, Butler.
2B: Polanco, Callaspo, Casilla.
SS: Three-way tie: Bloomquist, Punto and Everett.
3B: Inge, with Gordon and Crede tied.
LF: Span, DeJesus, Anderson.
CF: Granderson, Crisp, Gomez.
RF: Cuddyer, Ordonez and J. Guillen tied.
DH: Kubel, Jacobs, C. Guillen.
UT: Teahen, with Harris and Santiago tied.
Jeff rightly notes that Mauer is WAY better than the other teams' catchers, that Cabrera and Morneau are WAY better than Butler, and that Teahen is WAY better than the other two utility guys.
But here's where we start to disagree a little bit. Whoever we want to count as the Royals' shortstop, to me, is behind Punto and Everett based on defense. None of them are particularly good hitters.
I'd also say there's a pretty decent gap between Granderson and the other center fielders, and that Ordonez -- I know he's struggling so far -- should get an edge over Jose Guillen.
The Royals have the best pitching, but probably the worst offense and worst defense of the three teams.
Here's another way to look at it. Who is the Royals' best hitter? My vote would be Billy Butler, but I wouldn't argue too hard if you said Jose Guillen.
Either way, the Royals best hitter is no better than the fifth best hitter on this list -- and perhaps lower -- which doesn't take into account good hitters in Cleveland and Chicago like Victor Martinez, Grady Sizemore and Jim Thome.
Jeff makes the point that the Royals need to add a bat to really put themselves in position to win the division. He's right. But the problem is they don't have a lot of pieces to trade.
The farm system is much improved, but still not at a point where they can absorb a trade of some of their top guys. This is beginning to be a Ball Star cliche, but: there's a reason the Royals fired their scouting director last year.
I still look at the division and see the Tigers, with their big sticks, good starting pitching, and improved defense, as the team with the biggest potential. And I still see the Twins, with their history and style and philosophy, as the surest thing.
But Jeff makes some good points, and the way he spells it out makes me think it's closer than I thought in the abstract, but I'm curious what you guys think.
Royals: most talented?
How do you think they stack up?
Kudos from this Tigers fan for setting up an interesting discussion. Good points all around.
You can argue that the Royals have the best pitching in theory, and you have some solid points. Since Santana and Sabathia left the division, the door's open. Any rotation anchored by Grienke has a great start. But the Tigers have the lowest ERA in the majors at this point, and 7 shutouts on the year. So, measured by runs allowed, the Tigers have the best pitching in the majors this year -- so far.
And if you're basing this argument on all hands being healthy, you can't just argue for healthy Royals. You'd have to count Bonderman and Willis at their best, as well. Which puts a whole different spin on the way the rotations line up.