Time for your MGD update, and it's a beaut, and if you don't remember what we're talking about, click here.
The short version: we're tracking the Royals' successes and failures through their top three starting pitchers -- Gil Meche, Zack Greinke and Kyle Davies -- in comparison to the top three pitchers of recent playoff teams. We're using adjusted ERA, or ERA+. Now that we're all caught up...
Meche breezed through 6 innings, gave up nothing, and threw only 92 pitches. On another day, I'm guessing Trey Hillman would've sent Gil back out for the seventh, but the Royals scored 12 runs -- a nice change for Gil, who has received some of the worst run-support numbers in the American League the last two years -- so there was no need to stretch him.
Another encouraging part of that outing is that, for reasons that are obvious and otherwise, Gil has a terrible history at Texas. He's open about it, admitting he counts the days of his next start when he sees a road trip to Texas on the schedule.
But none of that mattered on Friday. Gil was terrific, and his numbers now:
1-0, 2.25 ERA, 20 IP, 19 H, 18 K, 4 BB, 1.150 WHIP, 211 ERA+. Royals are 2-1 when he starts.
Greinke had what was probably the best start of his career, throwing a complete game shutout, with 10 strikeouts and no walks. I could write more, but there's this outstanding quote from catcher Miguel Olivo:
"I catch him all of the time. But today, I saw he had the best stuff that he can have. The fastball, the slider, the curve and the change-up -- everything was nasty. To throw a shutout against that team here, that's like a no-hitter somewhere else."
And that about sums it up. Zack's numbers now:
3-0, 0.00 ERA, 20 IP, 16 H, 26 K, 5 BB, 1.050 WHIP, and, well, apparently you have to actually give up a run to have an ERA+ that registers.
So Zack's is just blank.
Still.
After three starts.
Because he hasn't given up a run.
Still.
Anyway, Royals are, obviously, 3-0 in his starts.
Davies' start -- because of what Gil and Zack did before him, and because of what Kyle Farnsworth did after him -- gets lost a little bit. But in some ways, it's just as encouraging.
Kyle was borderline terrible in the first inning, throwing 37 pitches, which he needed because he walked four. He gave up another run in the second on a homer by Ian Kinsler, so three runs before he's out of the second inning, but he settles down enough to get through the sixth with no more runs.
This is the kind of start that you like to see, a young pitcher developed enough both physically and mentally to get through a brutally tough lineup on a day he doesn't have his best stuff and gets rocked early on but leaves having given up just three runs in six innings.
I hope I'm not taking this out of context, because the conversation was about Greinke, but Royals pitching coach Bob McClure was saying the other day that one of the measurements for pitchers is if they can get through lineups "pitching with something in the tank."
He didn't use these exact words, but basically you want your guy to be able to get big leaguers out at a reasonable rate while pitching at 75 or 80 percent. That way, when they get in trouble, need to get out of a jam, they have something extra they can bring to be even more effective.
McClure was talking about Zack's 5-inning start against the Indians, where he constantly pitched out of trouble, and left with nine strikeouts. But I think it could apply to Davies yesterday, too, and if you're looking for reasons to believe that Davies has a lot of this thing figured out, that's as good as any.
OK, his numbers:
1-0, 2.89 ERA, 18 2/3 IP, 13 H, 21 K, 8 BB, 1.125 WHIP, 164 ERA+. Royals are 2-1 when he starts.
So here's your aggregate MGD performance so far:
5-0, 1.69 ERA, 58 2/3 IP, 48 H, 65 K (!), 17 BB, 1.108 WHIP, and an ERA+ that, thanks to Zack, is still undeterminable. If you remember, in the first MGD post we ran a very rough formula to find that recent playoff teams had their best three starting pitchers average an ERA+ of about 125. So far, the Royals are 7-2 when MGD starts.
This week I think we'll start doing a similar breakdown for the Nos. 4 and 5 starters, but whatever, it's safe to say that if the Royals' rotation can keep anywhere close to this, the team will be just fine.
Between all the hubbub about Sidney Ponson and Luke Hochevar ... or the injuries to Jose Guillen and Alex Gordon ... or the struggles of Kyle Farnsworth ... or the extended vacation for Joakim Soria ... it's easy to lose sight of the fact that the Royals' rotation, right now, is absolutely nails.
The starters have a 2.76 ERA, which is the best mark in baseball, and they're also tops with 75 strikeouts, a number that's even more impressive because it comes along with just 25 walks and 68 hits.
The defense on the right side of the infield is a mess right now, and Hillman needs to find the right bullpen juggle sooner than later, but what the Royals' rotation is doing -- MGD in particular -- means the team does not face any obstacle that by itself should keep them from contending in the AL Central.
In some ways, it's really starting to happen.
Here's a commentary on the game last night from Craig Calcaterra of The Hardball Times "Sidney Ponson does pretty much what you'd expect him to, and that's get blown up (3.1 IP, 8 H, 6 ER, 4 BB). And you can tell his attitude is just as good as ever. I watched this game, and as soon as he gave up the homer to Sizemore, he gets annoyed and starts working quickly and angrily which causes him to throw the ball around even more randomly than he had been. So he walks Mark DeRosa on four pitches, and Bob McClure comes out to talk to him. I can't read lips, but during the mound visit, Ponson has the same attitude as Bender from the Breakfast Club when Vernon was piling the additional Saturdays on him. McClure sits down, Ponson gives up a single to Victor Martinez and then is yanked from the game. The Royals would rally off of Joe Smith and then throw a big scare into Kerry Wood to turn it into a one-run game, but Sir Sidney sealed the Royals' fate last night."