Greinke signs, and if these aren't quite the "new" Royals yet, they certainly aren't the "old" ones

The baseball executive sent an e-mail that included these five words: "now THATS how you build."

The agent called and said this: "he's leaving money on the table, but it's probably good for both sides."

And then the scout answers his phone and says this: "I know everyone there is probably really excited, but that's a lot of money for Kansas City that they're paying basically off one good year, right?"

OK, so the support isn't unanimous, but it's pretty damn close.

As close as you'll find for moves comparable to the Royals signing emerging ace Zack Greinke for four years and $38 million -- the $13.5 million he's set to make in 2011 and 2012 buy out his first two years of free agency and will likely be a club record.

There is risk on each side, for the Royals and for Greinke, which probably means it's a fair deal.

If Greinke pitches the next four years like he did in 2008, the Royals are making out nicely on this. If he continues to get even better, it's an absolute steal for the team.

But if Zack blows out his shoulder, the Royals are paying him an awful lot to rehab and scout amateur showcase events.

None of that is the point here.

The first part is that this is a brand-new organization.

The second part is that that's a good thing, because there are no more valid excuses in this new baseball world.

It's been 2 1/2 years since what looks more and more like an epiphany for David Glass, when he hired the game's hottest GM prospect, promised him financial backing, and made the Royals big league again.

In that time, they signed Gil Meche for $55 million and Jose Guillen for $36 million.

They put together the biggest offer to Hiroki Kuroda, had the biggest offer to Torii Hunter before the Angels blew everyone away, and offered close to $70 million over five years to Andruw Jones*.

* Oops.

They went from drafting only guys who'd sign for $1,000 after the fourth or fifth round to drafting Scott Boras clients and spending $1.25 million on a fourth-round pick and spending more on last year's draft than any other team.

Their payroll went from $47 million in 2006 (26th in baseball) to a projected club record of $70-75 million in 2009, a figure that should be close to the league median.

The Royals probably won't win the AL Central this year --- heck, they might not even win half their games --- but every Wal-Mart punchline, every the-Royals-suck-because-they-won't-spend line, every the-Royals-are-cheap-and-what's-wrong-with-small-market-teams argument, will be way outdated.

My inbox and voicemail and message boards tell me that Royals fans are underwhelmed with most every offseason move with the exception of the Coco Crisp trade.

Signing Greinke for two years into what would've been his free agency becomes the Royals' biggest move this winter, by far, and should generate this kind of reaction from fans.

And now for the second part of the point, which is to say: the scholarship program is over.

The Royals and their fans have no more excuses. No more complaints about baseball's financial structure. No more whines about "the system" holding the team down, and we can't win, and blah blah blah.

If the Moneyball A's didn't prove you can be simultaneously successful and not play in New York, then the Twins of 2002-06 did, and if not them, then the Indians of the last decade or so did, and if not them, then the Marlins of 2003, and if not them then the Rockies of 2007, and if not them, then the Rays of 2008, and if not them, well, you get the point*.

* You might notice that two of the teams in that sentence are in the Royals' division with similar resources.

The Royals control their three best pitchers for three, four, and six more seasons.

They control David DeJesus through 2011, Coco Crisp through 2010, Kyle Davies through 2011, Alex Gordon through 2012 --- the Royals just aren't in danger of losing any key players anytime soon.

They have high-priced draft picks on the way, due in Kansas City by 2010 or 2011.

If this thing doesn't turn around in the next two or three seasons, it'll be because the Royals misjudged on big investments like Jose Guillen, or mis-scouted on too many draft picks, or put what looks to be a well-below-average defensive infield on a team purported to be about pitching and defense.

The small-money thing is dangerously close to being played out. This makes three consecutive offseasons the Royals have signed deals giving out club-record salary.

They have a new stadium set to open that will only increase their resources, along with the revenue sharing check* they get from big spenders like the Yankees (who, you probably realize, have won the same number of championships as the Royals in the last eight years).

* Reports vary, but we're talking tens of millions of dollars.

The Royals aren't the Yankees, aren't the Red Sox, aren't the Mets or even the Tigers, and they never will be.

But they are officially and long out of the laughingstock category, a nice change around here, and one we should keep in mind this season when judging the franchise's development.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on January 27, 2009 - 8:34am.
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Submitted by Sentinel74 on January 28, 2009 - 9:34am.

I have one friend who is a Twins fan, and another who is a White Sox fan. I keep telling them that the ingredients are right, it just needs to stay in the oven a little longer. If the team hits .500 in 2009, I will be fairly pleased.

Submitted by FrankWhiteHOF on January 28, 2009 - 9:01am.

I think the only thing MLB wants is an AL Championship Series between the Yankees and Red Sox. And an NL Series between the Mets and whoever. Letting the Yankees spend like they did this offseason while virtually everyone else is left looking in from the outside just goes to show that they DO NOT want the Brewers, Rays, or any other small market/perenial losing team to make the playoffs, much less be in the World Series.

The only way that many teams are ever going to have a chance is for there to be a salary cap like football and basketball already have.

Submitted by jtuck123 on January 28, 2009 - 8:38am.

There is a really good post on Upon Further Review about Zack and how this signing put Damon, Dye and Beltran in the past...Also has some good statistical data on him. I'd check it out...
JT

Submitted by steak on January 27, 2009 - 7:21pm.

Sam,

Can you please count for me the number of championships between the A's, Marlins, Rays, Rockies, Twins, and Indians?

By my count, its precisely one. Which, yes, is one more than the Yankees in the past eight years, but this isn't an argument against one team. It's against the oligopoly of large teams driving the post season results. The Yankees, upon missing the playoffs this year, have made the post season 13 out of the past 14 seasons.

The A's, with their famous moneyball teams, went to the WS exactly zero times.

The Twins? They had one fleeting ALCS appearance.

And regardless of all the success these teams had, I would like to point out that with the exception of the Twins, this small market moneyball type management has not been sustainable. Even Peter Gammons, who I despise dearly for his lust of the east coast, was quoted (nearly yelling) that baseball continues to breed disparity between its large and small markets after CC left the Brewers for the Yanks for one trillion dollars. We small-market teams can make signings like Greinke, or bring in big names midseason like CC, but without the luck of the Marlins (wild card team the year they won) or the Rockies (I need not recount their 47 game win streak to finish the season), baseball's playing field is not as right as it should be.

With all the great drafting and player development between the A's, Marlins, Rockies, Indians, Twinkies, and Rays, there is still just one championship ring among them in the past 10 years.

And isn't the championship what every team should be playing for?

Submitted by Otis26 on January 27, 2009 - 12:36pm.

Count me amongst the Royals fans who think it's too early to say whether Guillen is a bust or not. He led the team in HRs and RBI last season which is exactly why we brought him in. With some additional professional hitters in the lineup I'm predicting he will have a come-back year here and we're going to be glad he's with the Royals.

Fans at the K expected him to hit a home run every at-bat. Greinke has had one good season and we sign him for four and everyone is dancing. Guillen is signed for three, has a decent season, and everyone says he's a bust. I'm not tracking.

Submitted by jtuck123 on January 28, 2009 - 8:54am.

It's about time that I see someone who doesn't think that Joes Guillen was the worst thing to happen to Kansas City. For Pete's sake, the dude hit 20 homers and had 99 RBI last year! For once, the Royals get a power hitter and all we ever talk about is how bad of a person he is! Come on, Kansas City, find some positives about the Royals. I think that Dayton definitely had Guillen in mind when he went out and traded for Mike Jacobs. I think he had Guillen in mind when he hired Kevin Seitzer to teach some of these players to hit. You know, there might even be some fear in the opposing pitcher when he goes through the heart of the order this year...Kinda makes you feel good, right?
JT

Submitted by KowboyKoop on January 27, 2009 - 11:31am.

How dare you insult Britney Spears in such a way. I suggest you take some time to reflect upon your actions and words here. Until then...good day sir.

I SAID GOOD DAY, SIR!

Submitted by brenth on January 27, 2009 - 10:05am.

After the 2004 season, the Twins knew they had something special in Johan Santana. He had won the Cy Young, went 20-6 and was considered the best young pitcher in the AL. They paid him 40 million for 4 years in the off season and locked him up for the first 2 years of his possible free agency.

Now, I am not trying to put the whammy on Greinke by comparing him to Johan, which would be unfair, but the Royals are doing the same thing here, aren't they?

And that is a good thing. Even if he pitches as well as Johan and prices himself out of the Royals' world, having him for the next 4 years gives them a window and then, as the window closes, you trade him, just as the A's did with Mulder and the Twins did with Santana

Submitted by CMLachky on January 27, 2009 - 9:56am.

ME: This is great! You realize that we didn't even ATTEMPT to keep Dye, Damon, or Beltran.

HIM: ...

ME: [Not mentioning the big contracts given out to Sweeney and Berroa]

HIM: ...

ME: [Not mentioning the big contracts given out to Guillen and Farnsworth]

HIM: ...you want Jermaine Dye back??

Submitted by jayhawkowensjunior on January 27, 2009 - 9:21am.

...not to see Greinke traded because we didn't want to pay him? No more flashbacks to a Damon/Beltran/Dye outfield disappearing before our eyes. I'm not stoked on a baseball level so much as on a psychological, "Well, maybe this team is actually worth the psychic energy I put into it after all." I'm also stoked on a baseball level.

Submitted by JMGesling on January 27, 2009 - 9:09am.

I was so excited when I found out this morning Zack has been signed up. Yes, his first real good year was last year, but look at this kid. All that he's been through since he was first called up, the maturity and talent. I believe that this deal will benefit the Royals more, however you can't say 38 million doesn't benefit Greinke.

It's funny though that since this signing, everyone is back on the DM bandwagon. Though one signing does help, we need to see how this team performs this season and next before we can really know how good GMDM really is. Always hope for the best!

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