Dayton Moore's honeymoon with Royals fans was nice while it lasted.
They danced, they ate, they told old stories and they talked about new ideas. Royals fans, sick from years or abuse and neglect, took to Dayton almost immediately.
He treated them with respect, dangled a resume of 11 straight playoff appearances in his previous relationship and talked about growing up as a Royals fan while others talked of his turning down offers to date more, um, genetically blessed franchises.
In turn, Royals fans lavished him with love and praise, subconsciously comparing him to previous and disappointing relationships. When they heard others compliment their new love, point out that this one seemed real, seemed legitimate, it only made it sweeter.
But now, in the 33rd month of the relationship, it is clear that the honeymoon is over.
I know that Dayton feels good about every move he's made. I know that he replays scenarios in his head all the time, thinking of ways he could have done this or that and come out with a better product. I know he has occasional regrets, usually minor and sometimes not, but almost always feels good about his "process."
On the other hand, it's easy to see where the fans are coming from here. You guys have been more than patient. Two and a half years -- including three offseasons -- is an incredibly long time to give the GM* of your team before the criticism.
* Then again, this is the town where Carl Peterson lasted 20 years, so who the hell knows? We kid because we care.
The Royals have gone from 60 to 69 to 75 wins under Dayton's watch. More importantly, they've gone from league-wide joke, worse-than-an-expansion franchise, to something respectable and widely recognized as one of the small-money organizations doing the right things.
David Glass has opened his wallet since Dayton's arrival. The first two offseasons, the largest free agent contracts in the AL Central came from the Royals*. In the third offseason, the Royals flirted a bit with Rafael Furcal, fell short, but still will increase their payroll something like 20 percent.
* Whenever I use that line, it's always worth noting that this is technically true but does not count the eight-year, $152.3 million extension Miguel Cabrera signed with the Tigers.
The Royals have beefed up scouting, added player development staff and teams, and spent more than any other team in last year's draft.
Five years ago, the Royals only took players after the foruth or fifth round who would sign for $1,000.
Last year, they paid $1.25 million for their fourth round pick.
Zack Greinke has gone from lost baseball soul to one of the best young starting pitchers in baseball. Joakim Soria has gone from Class A ball with the Padres to shut-down fan favorite All-Star closer with the Royals. Gil Meche has backed up a $55 million contract. Mike Aviles was a revelation last year.
Now, it's impossible to say for sure what parts of the above six paragraphs are a direct result of Dayton and the guys he's brought in, and what parts are circumstance.
Was Glass ready to spend more, regardless of who was hired as GM? Probably.
Would Soria be closing in Kansas City if not for the scouts Dayton brought in? Probably not.
Would Greinke be in the position he's in now without the support system that's been created the last three years or so? Nobody can be sure either way.
But none of that really matters.
The portion of the Dayton-Royals marriage where it's good enough that the Royals are no longer a league-wide punchline is over.
You could argue there never should have been a time like that, and you could argue that the GM should be trusted as long as the team keeps adding six to nine wins every year.
Both sides are right, depending on your perspective.
I grew up in this area, close enough to climb into the station wagon every few weeks during the summer and ride to Kansas City when the Royals were at home. Mom and sister would go shopping or do whatever it is women do, and me and my dad would go to the ballpark.
I'm old enough that one my oldest sports memories is Darryl Motley catching that last out and Bret Saberhagen jumping into George Brett's arms as the Royals won the 1985 championship.
I remember the Royals being good, but those memories are grainy video, buried under the high-definition images of the last decade or so, guys falling off bases, climbing walls to watch balls bounce in front of them, getting hit in the back with relay throws, losing 19 games in a row, trying out professional softball pitchers, and Buddy Bell saying, "It can always get worse."
When I started covering baseball here, the more I heard and saw how bad things were -- from people both inside and outside the organization -- the more I was willing to give the benefit of the doubt to a movement that was pretty clearly moving the right way.
But 33 months is long enough.
If nothing else, Dayton will always be the guy who took the Royals from Lou Brown's Indians to a legitimate big league franchise.
That's great and all, but Dayton and his people have always talked about more than that. They talk about division championships and playoff games and the World Series.
What they're doing internationally and in the draft and in the minor league system will ultimately have a lot more to do with whether Dayton and his people leave here as winners or because they were fired.
What they're doing now, with Willie Bloomquist* and Doug Waechter and even Jose Guillen can be looked at as merely the bridge to a time when the middle of the Royals are self-sustaining and the middle of their lineup is Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas.
* Thought about making this its own post, but here goes: I still don't understand the uproar over this. The Royals aren't building a franchise around Willie Bloomquist. They're bringing him in at a relatively cheap price to be, at the very least, a backup shortstop who can play other positions, too.
Maybe he pushes Alberto Callaspo, maybe not. But if you run the roster numbers, it's pretty clear this is the likely end of Tony Pena Jr.'s time in Kansas City. After all the complaining about Pena last year, I guess I'm surprised that this is greeted with such outrage.
Look, most teams don't need to give out two-year contracts to Willie Bloomquist. Most teams can find a guy who can't hit but can play multiple positions in their minor league system.
If the Royals had someone like that, then Deric Ladnier wouldn't have been fired and Pena wouldn't have been on the big league roster all of last year. The Royals minor league system is much better at the lower levels now, but at the top, it's still pretty dry.
I realize I'm on the opposite side of this than Joe and Rany, and that's usually not a good side, but I really don't see a relatively low-cost move to make sure Pena and his 7 OPS+ (!!!) are no longer getting 225 at bats (!!!) as the move that will stop the Royals from improving.
But until Hosmer and Moustakas and the other draft picks from the last few years either succeed or fail, the only thing we can judge is what's happening at the big league level.
That's why this upcoming season is so important, and why 2010 will be even more important.
The Royals will either get to around .500 this season and then, with a few tweaks, compete for the division next year, or they will fall off.
It's still too early to judge Dayton's regime as anything other than the group that (at least temporarily) ended the Royals' misery.
But it's getting closer to that time where we can make informed and real judgments.
Nobody in Kansas City will be happy if 75 wins is the best that comes of this.
The honeymoon is over.
The real marriage is beginning -- for better, for worse, in Joakim times and in Gload.
I'm not a big fan of the BABIP rate. Here's an interesting article:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-quick-look-at-four-hitting-rates/
Anyhow, Even in taking into account the stats you mention, Bloomquist is more comparable to Eckstein than to Burke. Heck, Esteban German is a stud next to Burke... What I believe may have caused them to get their cheap deals is that with the Royals out of the running for a utility, the drop in demand drove the salary down. That is not to say that GMDM may have overpaid, but Bloomquist's role is not that of a Barry Larkin or A-Rod, so his numbers are adequate for his role as is the fact that he can play six or seven positions. His OBP is more likely to be in the neighborhood of .310 and his lack of extra-base hitting may not necessarily be a function of his abilities but of when and where he hits/plays. UtilitY-if's are also pinch-hitters and are called upon to move runners over and keep an inning alive, not necessarily to hit aggressively. I believe that Eckstein would have created competition at SS or 2b (which would leave the utility slot with a hole) and Eckstein is not a good enough upgrade at ss/2b to warrant upending the applecart. Both Callaspo's and Aviles numbers are good enough to keep them as starters, so the question becomes: Of the utilities who are not likely starters, who was the best optiion? Bloomquist appears well suited for the job.
Now, the spending on the pitching, that's another matter.