We interrupt the Royals' climb out of last place to ask, Hey, if Dayton says big changes, why not go HUGE?

I'll tell ya something: I LOVE all of the Royals fans with revisionist histories about the Royals. Of course, as we all know, we lost all of those games because we had a complete crap bullpen to go with our amazing starting rotation!

Every time they want to go on about Burgos (only one bad season) and Mac and Affeldt and Bottalico and Hernandez and Nelson and the rest, I'm just dying to go on about Redman and Lopez and Lima and Affeldt and Mac and Hernandez and Elarton and George and Gobble and May and Perez and Suzuki.

And having Soria as a closer wouldn't be any where near as wasteful as it currently is if we dared use him for a seven out outing or anything like was used with the closers of lore. The Eckersleyian closer is a waste.

Billy Beane never traded Jason Isringhausen. He became a free agent after the 2001 season and signed with the Cards.

Billy Beane did trade FOR Jason Isringhausen in 1999.

It's amazing how quickly you forget Scott Service, Matt Whisenant, Ricky Bottalico, Jerry Spradlin, Jose Santiego, Roberto Hernandez, Mike MacDougal, Jerremy Affeldt, Ambiorix Burgos, Andrew Sisco, Joe Nelson, and anyone else who was tried as a closer between Montie and Soria.

It has been nice this year to get to the 9th with a lead and be able to chalk it up in the win column. We have one of the best closers in the game, leave him be.

Soria may not yet be in the same league as Mariano Rivera, but Rivera had Orlando Hernandez and Mike Stanton as set-up men. When you get to the end of the game and have to deal with an "in-the-wrists" pitcher like Rivera, after set-up men who are not that far off being closers themselves, you'll find out that players often swing at anything. Rivera's numbers are as much a product of the situation as of his ability.

I wouldn't trade either of them in the off season. Soria would fetch a nice price in the summer when contenders blow out relievers and overpay for talent. Even at that, I might balk.

Better trade prospects are Gaithwright, Teahen and Butler. Moutsakas will come up as a 3b, and Gordon, or Moutsakas himself, may end up as a DH/LF. If you look at our real needs, catcher jumps out at you. Who is likely to be available?

"major changes" are still coming this offseason, given how well the team has performed this month. I suppose that depends on what one considers "major." (I don't think dropping Gload, TPJ, or German could possibly be considered a "major" change.)

I think the essence of what Sam's Mystery Scout said is absolutely correct--Greinke and Soria are the only two trade pieces that will get the Royals enough in return to really improve the team (moving Meche is an idea, but I think there are too many equivalent or better FA starters available for starter-needy-teams this year).

If I were Dayton Moore, here is my order of priority:

1. Attempt to sign Greinke to a long-term, somewhat-team-friendly extension;

2. If that does not appear likely to get done before the 2009 season, quietly ask a few of the teams who are known to covet him (Rangers, etc.) what exactly they would give up for him;

3. Shop Greinke hard only if he's not interested in, or won't be reasonable about, an extension, and move him only if you can get some combination of a young SS, young corner OF with power, top-hitting catching prospect and/or a decent pitching prospect in return;

4. Hang on to Soria no matter what. Either as a closer or as a starter, his new deal is EXTREMELY team-friendly. If you trade him, then (a) you have to take a risk on the younger players you get in exchange, AND (b) you have to replace a stud closer or potentially great starter with a (likely) expensive FA acquisition;

5. If Greinke is moved, then tell the Mexicutioner to get some alternate nicknames ready because we're going to try to transition him to a starter. If the Move Into the Rotation Experiment is going to be attempted, it needs to be going into THIS year. After 2009, the Royals had better be in a position where they have the rotation basically set (at least top 4 starters), so we'll need to know whether Soria is a starter or whether he's a permanent closer so there are no questions heading into 2010 and beyond (what I'd realistically refer to as "The Contention Years").

but their Luck would have to change.

1. Who says their not willing to trade them?

2. Aviles' season shows us that Dayton should be interested in what he has in the minors. What i mean is the prospects he has that are mashing the ball should find it easier to get ML playing time than say, squeezing blood out of a turnip.

I have been preaching a trade of Grienke for awhile now. But ONLY if it is to Texas and we get back C-Teagarden or M. Ramirez, SS Andrus, and another pitching prospect. That or a trade to the Brewers for Escobar and Gamel.

I disagree with trading Soria. We have him wrapped up to a long term team friendly deal. If Grienke will sign a similar deal, then I think we should keep him too.

We should have no part in big signings through free agency. I will use the Twins as my example. How many big time FAs have they signed over the years? They do it by homegrown talent. If Moore is doing the job he should be doing in the draft, then we just have to be patient and wait for dividends from his drafting. Burlington winning the championship this year is an indication that Moore's first draft and international signings were successful.

Please Sam, tell me how you think signing Furcal (he has said he would like to stay in LA) is going to make us a better team in the long run. I just don't see a three year contract worth $40-$45 million on Furcal as a good step for this team when we have Aviles and Callaspo. Let those two play next year, then if they stink, we should think about signing a FA.

...then trade Gil Meche. He's the oldest guy in the rotation, and thus the least likely to still be effective when the Royals finally have some youngeters ready to bring up, but he's still only 29. He's coming off two straight years that should have settled his durability/effectiveness questions for all time, and he's signed for a reasonable contract for a #2 or #3 starter. That's an attractive player to a lot of teams.

Granted, the Royals wouldn't get near the return they'd get for Greinke and/or Soria, but they'd get something pretty decent. Last year the White Sox traded Jon Garland, a pitcher very similar to Meche in age, performance and salary and got an experienced everyday shortstop in return. The Rockies packaged Jason Jennings in a deal that brought them three useful players. Freddy Garcia netted Gavin Floyd for the White Sox. Hell, the Yankees turned Jaret Wright into a decent young reliever and cash, and Wright was terrible. The Padres packaged Adam Eaton and a 33-year old reliever (hmmm...Ron Mahay) in a deal that brought them Chris Young and Adrian Gonzalez.

There are good deals out there to be made, and I'd much rather see the Royals pass along Meche to a contender for some younger parts than hand over Greinke or Soria just as they're developing into something special.

I'd be all for it actually. I love Soria and I really like Greinke, but this team is still absolutely awful with them on the roster. They need more than a guy who pitches once or twice a week and a guy that only pitches one inning when the situation is right. Plus, closer is the most overrated position in baseball. Every year a new dominant closer debuts. It's time that Dayton steps up and makes that blockbuster trade that gets this team on the right track. I'd take that Detroit trade in a heartbeat. The Royals just have to get away from dealing with the A's so much. I think they should trade Greinke to a minor league rich team, get two good prospects and one major leaguer, then use Banny, Meche, Hochevar and maybe sign a decent starter in the off season. Hopefully Melville will be up in a few seasons and by then Hochevar will be a little more solid.

As always very insightful commentary by everyone. Refreshing.

The only thing I care to throw in is that the reason for our success in September has been pitching. The reason for our failure in the fluke year of 2003 was - pitching.

Our minor league system isn't exactly flush with top-level pitching prospects right now...so moving Greinke or Meche would put us back 2 years at least.

With that said, I would be inclined to agree with the idea that we could carve a closer out of what we have on the staff and get by without Soria.

You get rid of both Greinke (our Ace next year) and Soria and what you have is the 2003 team all over again.

I like it, and yet I don't. I think converting Soria to a starter would be the best thing to do. Nunez, Ramirez, and Mahay can handle closing. Closers are a dime a dozen. We could have a dominant 1-2-3 punch with Greinke, Meche, Soria. This year, we were 5 games over .500 in games that Greinke and Meche started (Greinke 17-15, Meche 18-15, note these are not their W-L records). Soria, likely would have a similar record. Davies was .500 in his starts (10-10 Royals record when he starts). Banny was 13-19 and Hochevar was bad too at 7-15. I think they both will be better, but they both probably need to do it in Omaha.

I'd say do it for Greinke if we can pull off the Bartolo Colon Indians trade (you know the one that gave them Sizemore, Cliff Lee, and Brandon Philips), but that would be pretty hard and risky. I'd say hold on to what we've got, improve by FAs next year (1 SP, 1 OF, maybe C). And hopefully improve by calling up some of the young studs coming through our system. Moustakas is probably 2 years away, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him up here next September, hopefully there will be a few others ready too. The problem with trying to improve at C is that there just aren't many very good catchers with a bat out there. Buck and Brayan Pena are probably our best options.

We could blow it up, but I think the fans would be pretty cheesed off.

Please tell me you're not comparing Soria to Rivera. Put down the Boulevard Dry Stout and back away.

Rivera is the best closer of all time. That said, the Yankees still would have won a fair share of World Series with a more pedestrian closer. He was lights out for them, but the closer's role is overrated. There are dozens of big league pitchers who can consistently get three outs. Look at Todd Jones, for Pete's sake. That guy is probably below average in terms of stuff, but he had all-star numbers for many years.

Now for conjecture: Soria will not be nearly as highly regarded as he is now in three or four years. Closers are volatile. I see nothing in him that makes me think he'll be dominant for years. He's good now but green.

Not that Billy Beane is the be-all-end-all of baseball management, but if you read "Moneyball," you see he's made a killing off trading over-priced closers, ie: Jason Isringhausen and more.

To be sure, Soria is talented, but he's still somewhat unproven. Get hurt, blow a few saves and he's worthless. The closer is the most overrated position on the field, and it's very easy to over-inflate their stats. The dude is a tech stock that's at its peak and probably will only lose value from here on out. If you can get a prospect with power plus two other promising parts, pull the trigger now.

I'd be okay with it if we traded Grienke or Soria for 3 top tier A or AA prospects, but if we're trading a star for 3 MLB-ready players, we might only end up getting 1 starter out of the deal. The weakest links on our team next year might be something like Callaspo, Ka'aihue, Teahen, and Davies. They're not great, but it's not like the Royals have gaping holes that if you fill in, the Royals suddenly jump into contention. If the Royals can't contend next year, I might trade Grienke for David Price straight up this off-season though. I don't think I'd trade Soria at all because he's locked up pretty cheaply for several years. Just like the prospects we'd trade him for, Soria will still be here when Moustakas makes it up to the big leagues, so there's no impetus to move him.

I prefer to KEEP the good (bordering on great) players, like Soria and Grienke. Remember, if the other team thought that the players they offered in trade were going to be superstars, they would keep them.

The only way I trade Grienke is if he won't sign a long-term deal. Then I go for the biggest bounty I can get.

This offseason, I look to chase (not necessarily get) a FA frontline starter, and a FA corner bat (two if I trade Guillen). If I can get a 2B NOT named Furcal, I strongly consider it. A catcher is a position of need, but I just don't see it happening.

I do not envy Dayton's position here...what a dilemma.

I consider myself old school...I want to keep who we have. Grow from within. I personally would like to see Greinke and Soria turn into lifers with the Royals...etching their careers into the History of KC baseball...a la George Brett and Frank White.

It's a different sport now than it was then...so that makes for some fodder for thought. Do you keep what has to be considered to be a Potential young Cy Young candidate and Rivera-like stability at the back of the bullpen? Or trade these rising stars for the POSSIBILITY of getting better.

Of course we all rememeber the Dye, Damon, Cone trades of the past. Can we risk that again (even though we all agree the GM leadership is better than it was back then)?

...oh God...That's too long to wait...I'm assuming by your last comment that you aren't shutting it down till spring training, right?
JT