Hey, look! The Royals caught those rich guys from Detroit! What better time than to hear from a Tigers fan?

You know, I'd been thinking of doing a post on what fourth place would mean. Maybe it doesn't seem like much to many who've watched the Royals all year and known their team was out of it.

Maybe it would mean more if the Royals were in fourth place all year long, and thus "earned it" over the long grind instead of sneaking up on a Tigers team that may or may not have given up.

But I say hooey to that. The Royals are in fourth place right now, and even though it's a virtual tie (stupid percentage points) and thus could still be called last place, it's something better than they've been for so long.

Nobody needs to tell you about the sorry history the Royals carry around with them, and the culture of losing that Dayton Moore and his guys are trying to change.

And if it's gone largely unnoticed that the Royals are now two games better than the Braves (!), it sure won't -- and shouldn't -- go unnoticed that the Royals have a real chance to finish out of last place for the first time since before Eduardo Villacis started at Yankee Stadium and Tony Pena Sr. started showering with his clothes on.

So with sole possession of last place in the AL Central on the line today, Ian Casselberry of Bless You Boys and I thought it'd be a good time to exchange e-mail Q&As.

Much like the Royals, this blog may be finishing the season strong, with some notes from an interesting conversation with a scout and, I hope, another good surprise later in the week or soon.

Oh, and we should have the winner of the The First Annual Very Official Ball Star Over-Under Challenge figured out next week, too.

Anyway, here's Ian's answers, and my questions are in bold. You can see my answers to his here.

The Tigers need to average about 35 runs per game over their last six to eclipse that 1,000-runs mark that some predicted. Will they do it? And if the Royals finish ahead of the Tigers, how many people get fired or traded or released?

Sam, I think they're going to come up just short on that 1,000-run thing. The Tigers' best chance would be if MLB somehow put them in the National League West for those last six games. Oh, they love that NL West! But with the way this lineup has played, they might actually put up 35 runs one night, only to be held to one or two runs (despite 15 singles) in the other five games.

Finishing behind the Royals probably won't change who gets fired, traded, or released because an under-.500 record is disappointing, regardless of the standings. But maybe the sheer indignity of last place will stoke some of those "Hey, we can finish in last without you!" feelings, and put a bigger name (Magglio Ordonez?) on that trade block.

If you were forced to choose just one, what's been the biggest factor in the Tigers' disappointing season?

It's absolutely been the pitching. No one seems capable of throwing strikes. Starters are out of the game by the fifth inning, forcing inferior relievers to pitch when they shouldn't. And even when that bullpen gets a lead, they constantly put runners on and turn little matchstick flames into five-alarm infernos.

I know a lot of experts thought that would be Detroit's Achilles' heel coming into the season, but it's been even worse than expected. Dontrelle Willis was definitely a question mark, and Nate Robertson caused some anxiety, too. But a 10-17 (soon to be 10-18?)record from Justin Verlander? He was supposed to be the rock, with a little help from Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers. If not for Armando Galarraga coming out of nowhere, the starting rotation would be a complete train wreck.

I just talked to a scout this afternoon who said he has no doubt the Tigers can come back and be next year what many thought they'd be this year. Is that more optimistic than most Tigers fans?

No, I believe most fans share that optimism, though there are definitely the extreme naysayers who think the current team is a lost cause. Maybe I'm misreading the fanbase, but I think the prevailing sentiment is that everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and it couldn't possibly be this bad again next year. We've seen how dangerous it is to depend on a big "if." (If the pitching is good, if everyone stays healthy, if certain players post their typical numbers...) Besides, wasn't that the Indians' off-season philosophy? Where did that get them?

Will the Tigers get into the CC Sabathia sweepstakes? Or is the Illitch fortune temporarily out of reach before the team proves it's worth the money?

I'd be surprised if they tried to sign Sabathia. Not that he wouldn't help (and Ilitch has shown he'll pay up if he fancies a particular player), but I think the approach will be to take that kind of money to fill several holes. Sign a less heralded starter, such as Derek Lowe. Get a shortstop. Bring in a couple of relievers.

Um, Justin Verlander's future. Discuss.

Partly cloudy, with a chance of sunshine?

For most of the season, Verlander wasn't getting enough run support and I think that got into his head. He felt like he had to shut the other team out and couldn't make any mistakes. So he tried to be too fine with his pitches and racked up high pitch counts. So maybe it's that simple. Or maybe it's far more complicated.

Some believe that Verlander's been fighting a shoulder problem because his velocity was down. Others think he doesn't attack hitters with a proper game plan, believing instead that his stuff is good enough to get them out. A scout was quoted as saying that Verlander isn't throwing his curveball and four-seam fastball anymore. Is that coaching? The Tigers' pitching coach, Chuck Hernandez, said in today's Detroit News that he's known for two years that Verlander "wasn't all there." Well, what is he doing about that? And did he tinker too much with Verlander's mechanics to begin with? A different pitching coach might be trying to fix Verlander next year.

Who's the closer next year? It could be Joakim Soria if the Tigers would trade Curtis Granderson, Rick Porcello, and Miguel Cabrera (assuming they'd pick up most of the salary)?

Hey, if the Royals threw in a shortstop (that Aviles kid could have a future), that might be a deal.

Joel Zumaya could be the closer, but who knows if his arm won't explode? The Tigers can't possibly depend on his health. Fernando Rodney has the stuff, but is too inconsistent in the ninth inning. Detroit drafted a bunch of college relievers, and I think they're hoping for a quick return on that investment. They also have two quality prospects in Cody Satterwhite and Casey Fien. But can they really trust a rookie to be the closer? So that might mean an outside hire. I don't think they'll pursue Frankie Rodriguez, for the same reasons they won't go for Sabathia. However, I could see them signing a lower-priced guy, like Arizona's Juan Cruz.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on September 24, 2008 - 5:10am.
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Submitted by kcroyalsguy on September 24, 2008 - 6:46pm.

If Porcello, Granderson and Miguel Cabrera were offered for either Soria or Greinke I think there would be no choice but to accept it.

Granderson leads the league in triples, second in runs scored after starting the year on the DL with a broken hand. Add to that the fact that by all accounts he is a great guy both on and off the field, he would be a great answer to our outfield productivity.

Miguel Cabrera is a stud who rakes at the K, he is only 25 and has 4 seasons of 30 plus homers and a career OPS of 922. According to baseballreference.. Cabrera's most similar player by age? Henry Aaron, and he is the only one listed..

As for Porcello, high upside guy, projected to be top of the rotation..

If this offer was on the table the Royals would have to do it, but there is absolutely no way the Tigers would.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on September 25, 2008 - 6:59am.

...I was kidding. Tigers would be crazy to make that deal.

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 7:49pm.

If this was on the table and we did this, would we be able to afford to retain these guys? Sorry, I didn't take the time to figure out what their contract status is. But, if one or more of them are really just rentals then it obviously makes such a trade less than it appears.

Submitted by bobtelos on September 24, 2008 - 8:23pm.

to a club-friendly contract through about 2012, I think.

I'd do Granderson for Soria straight up, without blinking, if I'm the Royals. Especially if they really aren't go to try him in the rotation.

Greinke, straight up, too, but only if he wont' re-sign this offseason.

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 10:34pm.

Yes, I totally agree, IF they are simply planning to keep Soria as a closer then I too would definitely trade him for Granderson. Today's closer position is highly overrated since they are so improperly used as Rany has discussed.

Soria would have much greater value in the rotation and then is a keeper. As a closer I believe he is wasted and much easier replaced - and therefore we should take advantage of his assumed value as a closer and take a trade.

If they don't try Soria in the rotation then they are totally clueless and our loyalty and faith will be and should be seriously questioned.

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 6:41pm.

Over at the Detroit remarks Sam said this, "I'm probably being unfair to Hillman here, because he was in good company in not thinking Aviles could play an adequate shortstop (defensive metrics actually say he's been one of the best in MLB) and hit .319 with a 111 OPS+." in regards to his treatment of Aviles when he was called up.

NO, you're not being unfair to Hillman. Hillman was a complete idiot when he said those things and treated Aviles that way. Did any of us expect him to perform the way he has? No. And if people say they did, they're lying. However, Hillman should have been smart enough to know that ONE GAME does not a tryout make AND that Aviles OR ANYONE would be better than Pena. Hillman was a complete dope and deserves to be called out on that.

Now to the BTW, did my eyes just deceive me or did I just see in the same inning nonetheless 2 things I thought impossible? I just saw Guillen BEAT OUT a double play attempt to save the third out. And a few batters later TPJ WALKED(!) with bases loaded to score a run! WOW, kudos to both of them, to be fair. I just wish they could do those and some other things a lot more often.

Submitted by PRL on September 24, 2008 - 4:30pm.

And I would highly recommend expanding it to encompass the entire division by asking fellow Twins, ChiSox, and Indians bloggers to join in, too.

Submitted by Nate Greene on September 24, 2008 - 3:56pm.

I've posted some rants here about the Royals and their lack of heart, but I must admit a 75 win season would be a big step forward. The way they have played these last two weeks in essentially meaningless games has definitely shown me something. To get to 75 wins would take winning 3 out of the last 4, which means at least two out of three from Minnesota who are fighting for their playoff lives. This is no small order.

But finishing the season on a 11-3 run to get to 75 wins (in which case any six games all season long go the other way and they're looking at .500) would be a great boost to the start of next season, and give all of us an extra jolt of hope. Remember that 12 game streak? They go 6-6 instead and it's a .500 season, if they get to 75 wins.

I have felt that the biggest problem facing this team for years was lack of heart; when faced with adversity, they have not met the challenge. If they could beat a team fighting for the playoffs, on their turf, in the last week of the season, I could be convinced that determination is no longer an uncrossable barrier for this team.

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 6:09pm.

Didn't they do that last year?

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 7:45pm.

time goes fast when you get old.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on September 24, 2008 - 9:10am.

Now we're talkin!

Makes you wonder what it would take to get a guy like Granderson out of Detroit, though.

Also makes you wonder what kind of "improvement" the Royals could make with a chip like Soria to play cards with?

Submitted by kabrink on September 24, 2008 - 6:13pm.

I don't think I like the Soria and Greinke trade speculations. I mean, I am a bit intrigued at what could be had and all and the values are of course debateable. But, I think that if we move Soria to the rotation he'll be on par with Meche and Greinke. Wow, what a rotation! DM wanted to build pitching first and then fill out. That means we're getting closer. Can we pick up some good values using some of our pitching prospects instead of the proven guys? That's what I would investigate.

Of course, it's always good to listen to offers.

Submitted by KALee on September 24, 2008 - 9:02am.

I well remember when the Royals traded David Cone for Ed Hearn. Cone became a star and Hearn went on the disabled list. The Royal fan base had a fit. The Royals then followed up this fiasco by trading Bret Saberhagen for Gregg Jefferson, Kevin McReynolds, and Kevin Miller. The fan base never recovered.

I am all for the Royals trading the "g-men" Gathright, German, Gload, Gordon, and Guillen, for prospects. However, it would be difficult. Gload and Guillen have multi-million dollar contracts through 2009 and there will be few, if any takers. Gordon is much too comfortable in a Royals uniform and needs a change of scenerey to bring out his potential.

Submitted by dive55 on September 24, 2008 - 8:30am.

I started to feel a little better about the Royals as they’ve made this late “surge” and are climbing into the 70’s in the Win column. I started to do some comparisons to the standings in prior years and noted that besides the improvement in Wins the Royals are still behind last year’s Run Differential (currently -99 compared to -72 last year).

Now I realize that W’s and L’s are the important stat not Run Differential, but it got me thinking, the Royals have been atrocious in this category. There’s the stretch from 2004-2006 where they averaged -210. Even the above .500 season of 2003 had them at -31. I only went back quickly to 2002 via looking on espn.com. Does anyone know if there is a way to look up the most consecutive years with a negative Run Differential, and are the Royals approaching that at all if not owning it? Just looking at overall records, I would think that the last time they were positive would have been 93 or 94.

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 24, 2008 - 6:31am.

Where?
JT

Submitted by Ian C on September 24, 2008 - 7:14am.

Starting off a little bit slow this morning. Apologies.

Ian

www.blessyouboys.com

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on September 24, 2008 - 8:19am.

....and one more piece of proof that this blog needs a copy editor.

Or an author who's not scatter-brained. Either way.

Submitted by Ian C on September 24, 2008 - 9:13am.

You can find Sam's answers here.

Thank you, Mr. Mellinger, and thanks to the Ball Star readership!

Ian

www.blessyouboys.com

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on September 24, 2008 - 9:14am.

....if I can edit properly. Again, my bad for the poor form there.

Submitted by jtuck123 on September 25, 2008 - 6:44am.

...not getting upset here, just looking out for ya'll...
JT

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