You know, I'd been thinking of doing a post on what fourth place would mean. Maybe it doesn't seem like much to many who've watched the Royals all year and known their team was out of it.
Maybe it would mean more if the Royals were in fourth place all year long, and thus "earned it" over the long grind instead of sneaking up on a Tigers team that may or may not have given up.
But I say hooey to that. The Royals are in fourth place right now, and even though it's a virtual tie (stupid percentage points) and thus could still be called last place, it's something better than they've been for so long.
Nobody needs to tell you about the sorry history the Royals carry around with them, and the culture of losing that Dayton Moore and his guys are trying to change.
And if it's gone largely unnoticed that the Royals are now two games better than the Braves (!), it sure won't -- and shouldn't -- go unnoticed that the Royals have a real chance to finish out of last place for the first time since before Eduardo Villacis started at Yankee Stadium and Tony Pena Sr. started showering with his clothes on.
So with sole possession of last place in the AL Central on the line today, Ian Casselberry of Bless You Boys and I thought it'd be a good time to exchange e-mail Q&As.
Much like the Royals, this blog may be finishing the season strong, with some notes from an interesting conversation with a scout and, I hope, another good surprise later in the week or soon.
Oh, and we should have the winner of the The First Annual Very Official Ball Star Over-Under Challenge figured out next week, too.
Anyway, here's Ian's answers, and my questions are in bold. You can see my answers to his here.
The Tigers need to average about 35 runs per game over their last six to eclipse that 1,000-runs mark that some predicted. Will they do it? And if the Royals finish ahead of the Tigers, how many people get fired or traded or released?
Sam, I think they're going to come up just short on that 1,000-run thing. The Tigers' best chance would be if MLB somehow put them in the National League West for those last six games. Oh, they love that NL West! But with the way this lineup has played, they might actually put up 35 runs one night, only to be held to one or two runs (despite 15 singles) in the other five games.
Finishing behind the Royals probably won't change who gets fired, traded, or released because an under-.500 record is disappointing, regardless of the standings. But maybe the sheer indignity of last place will stoke some of those "Hey, we can finish in last without you!" feelings, and put a bigger name (Magglio Ordonez?) on that trade block.
If you were forced to choose just one, what's been the biggest factor in the Tigers' disappointing season?
It's absolutely been the pitching. No one seems capable of throwing strikes. Starters are out of the game by the fifth inning, forcing inferior relievers to pitch when they shouldn't. And even when that bullpen gets a lead, they constantly put runners on and turn little matchstick flames into five-alarm infernos.
I know a lot of experts thought that would be Detroit's Achilles' heel coming into the season, but it's been even worse than expected. Dontrelle Willis was definitely a question mark, and Nate Robertson caused some anxiety, too. But a 10-17 (soon to be 10-18?)record from Justin Verlander? He was supposed to be the rock, with a little help from Jeremy Bonderman and Kenny Rogers. If not for Armando Galarraga coming out of nowhere, the starting rotation would be a complete train wreck.
I just talked to a scout this afternoon who said he has no doubt the Tigers can come back and be next year what many thought they'd be this year. Is that more optimistic than most Tigers fans?
No, I believe most fans share that optimism, though there are definitely the extreme naysayers who think the current team is a lost cause. Maybe I'm misreading the fanbase, but I think the prevailing sentiment is that everything that could go wrong did go wrong, and it couldn't possibly be this bad again next year. We've seen how dangerous it is to depend on a big "if." (If the pitching is good, if everyone stays healthy, if certain players post their typical numbers...) Besides, wasn't that the Indians' off-season philosophy? Where did that get them?
Will the Tigers get into the CC Sabathia sweepstakes? Or is the Illitch fortune temporarily out of reach before the team proves it's worth the money?
I'd be surprised if they tried to sign Sabathia. Not that he wouldn't help (and Ilitch has shown he'll pay up if he fancies a particular player), but I think the approach will be to take that kind of money to fill several holes. Sign a less heralded starter, such as Derek Lowe. Get a shortstop. Bring in a couple of relievers.
Um, Justin Verlander's future. Discuss.
Partly cloudy, with a chance of sunshine?
For most of the season, Verlander wasn't getting enough run support and I think that got into his head. He felt like he had to shut the other team out and couldn't make any mistakes. So he tried to be too fine with his pitches and racked up high pitch counts. So maybe it's that simple. Or maybe it's far more complicated.
Some believe that Verlander's been fighting a shoulder problem because his velocity was down. Others think he doesn't attack hitters with a proper game plan, believing instead that his stuff is good enough to get them out. A scout was quoted as saying that Verlander isn't throwing his curveball and four-seam fastball anymore. Is that coaching? The Tigers' pitching coach, Chuck Hernandez, said in today's Detroit News that he's known for two years that Verlander "wasn't all there." Well, what is he doing about that? And did he tinker too much with Verlander's mechanics to begin with? A different pitching coach might be trying to fix Verlander next year.
Who's the closer next year? It could be Joakim Soria if the Tigers would trade Curtis Granderson, Rick Porcello, and Miguel Cabrera (assuming they'd pick up most of the salary)?
Hey, if the Royals threw in a shortstop (that Aviles kid could have a future), that might be a deal.
Joel Zumaya could be the closer, but who knows if his arm won't explode? The Tigers can't possibly depend on his health. Fernando Rodney has the stuff, but is too inconsistent in the ninth inning. Detroit drafted a bunch of college relievers, and I think they're hoping for a quick return on that investment. They also have two quality prospects in Cody Satterwhite and Casey Fien. But can they really trust a rookie to be the closer? So that might mean an outside hire. I don't think they'll pursue Frankie Rodriguez, for the same reasons they won't go for Sabathia. However, I could see them signing a lower-priced guy, like Arizona's Juan Cruz.


If Porcello, Granderson and Miguel Cabrera were offered for either Soria or Greinke I think there would be no choice but to accept it.
Granderson leads the league in triples, second in runs scored after starting the year on the DL with a broken hand. Add to that the fact that by all accounts he is a great guy both on and off the field, he would be a great answer to our outfield productivity.
Miguel Cabrera is a stud who rakes at the K, he is only 25 and has 4 seasons of 30 plus homers and a career OPS of 922. According to baseballreference.. Cabrera's most similar player by age? Henry Aaron, and he is the only one listed..
As for Porcello, high upside guy, projected to be top of the rotation..
If this offer was on the table the Royals would have to do it, but there is absolutely no way the Tigers would.