The importance of Gordon, Butler, and Hochevar > the importance of Orlando Hudson, Rafael Furcal, and other free agents

but I'm not sure about the placement of Shealy at 7th. If his power numbers aren't a fluke and he does stay healthy, shouldn't his power be a little further up the food chain? Batting 7th, I'm afraid there would be too many times where he would be batting with the bases empty. What about moving Shealy to 4th, protecting him with Guillen and following Guillen with Gordon, Butler, Teahen. Switching Gordon and Butler would leave intact the S/R/L/R/R/L/R/L/R alternating pattern. I could also see protecting Guillen with Shealy once MLB pitchers were clearly afraid of Shealy.

Otherwise this is spot-on.

Remember the Royals of the late 70s, early 80s? You could write the lineup on the scorecard before it was announced EVERY SINGLE NIGHT. Wouldn't it be great to get back to that point?

Lastly, why can't someone teach Gathright to bunt, slap hit, and run to turn this guy into Vince Coleman? How cool would it be to have someone at the top of the order who could disrupt the way Vince could? But every time I see Gathright bunt it looks like he's doing it with a hockey stick...

I couldn't agree with you more. You have to give up something to get something. And in this case with the Royals in the 08/09 offseason, from what I've heard, GM DM is taking the "no one is safe" stance. I wouldn't be surprised to see some of our younger players dealt in the offseason (if Butler is in a Royals uniform next year, feelings in the Royals front office will have to change drastically...)

I would love to see us go out and trade for a Taylor Teagarden from Texas. Buck's bat is a liability, as well as his arm strength. I don't care what people say about him calling a good game -- don't get me wrong, it is crucial part of the game, but there are also a lot of good game callers in the minors/backup MLB catchers and they are there because they can't hit(or have some other major flaws in their game). Buck would be at best a backup catcher for any other team in the Majors. Olivo is serviceable, but certainly not a long term solution.

The winning in September has certainly done a lot to squash the horrible feelings lingering from August -- hopefully we can go out and sweep the Twins to finish the season. And then sit back and see what happens in the off season

Sorry, but can someone tell me why we have to watch Teahan 'prove' himself one more year? Also, why is it clear nobadgerbear54 that Teahan is our best bet at 3rd?

For next year the upgrades need to be Teahan, Buck and another starter to replace whomever falters between Hochevar/Davies/Bannister.

Hawk actually couldn't shut up about the Royals in general. He had a lot of good things to say about the entire team, which frankly frightens me since he's an idiot.

actually, in my experience, ken harrelson never shuts up about how good the other team is.

it's almost like he's trying to convince himself (and all the other mindless sox fans) that the white sox are actually accomplishing something by perpetually defeating the last place royals.

you have to look no further than hawk's strange september fondness for shane costa in recent years. the man constantly raves about worthless royals rookies.

My "well" post above was supposed to be a reply to this.

Here's one example, though.

Frank White didn't have a "terrible" VORP, for a second baseman in his time, but it was pretty low -- around 11 or 12 runs above replacement level (in other words, if Guillen stays hot this week, his hitting might be about as good as a defensive second baseman in the early 1980s... $36 million, ladies and gentlemen!).

However, VORP, while adjusted for position, is also purely offensive. Frank White wasn't killing his team on offense -- he was below average, but not great. BUT -- Frank White was probably the best defensive 2B of his time, one of the best ever... So there you go. He really, really helped.

A guy with an equivalent VORP, playing the corner outfield, and being one of the worst defenders in the league is, um, shall we say, "less than essential."

...football season.
JT

In my little world,

Football:Baseball::Flavor Ice:Ice Cream

You wouldn't turn down a flavor ice, but you'd rather have ice cream.

"Although even Sweeney wasn't killing the Royals in the field as badly as Guillen is."
- Difference there is that Sweeney hardly ever played...I'd say that Sweeney hurt them more by riding the bench (and getting paid 12 million a year) 120 games out of the year...I'd take the "poor defence" over "riding the bench"...
JT

....the only comparison I was noting is that Sweeney was and Guillen is incredibly polarizing among Royals fans. For different reasons, of course, but polarizing nonetheless.

and that's really sad. Sweeney isn't a Hall of Famer, or as good as Carlos Beltran, much less George Brett.

Nonetheless, there's not way he should be in a conversation with Jose Guillen A quick check of VORP shows that Mike Sweeney had 4 seasons better than Jose Guillen's best. Even this year, Guillen, playing every day, has only been slightly over half a win better than the corpse of Mike Sweeney.

Some people won't ever forgive Mike Sweeney for been a good player on a terrible team. I guess it's better to be a terrible player that some people think is good on that terrible team.

but you mean Gload?

.....I've never understood the animosity toward Sweeney. He vastly overachieved his draft position, always gave max effort, and represented himself and the team in the community as well as anybody could ask. His sin was signing a below-market deal to stay in KC and having a back and body that couldn't hold up to the grind of long baseball seasons.

Somebody had to take the heat for the Royals' terrible seasons during Sweeney's tenure, so maybe it was inevitable that it'd be the captain and highest paid player.

"Somebody had to take the heat for the Royals' terrible seasons during Sweeney's tenure, so maybe it was inevitable that it'd be the captain and highest paid player."

Could it be possible that Jose Guillen is that player? (Let it rip...I know I'm gonna get killed for saying that...but give me a few more days to write my living will and get some life insurance...)
JT

I mean, he's been almost one win above replacement player, so he shouldn't get a whole lot of credit for helping the team, given that he's been their fourth most valuable hitter (there have been at least 4 pitchers more valuable to the team this year). I don't blame Mark Teahen, either. I mean, sure, he's been about 9 runs worse than Guillen on offense this year. Guillen's been about 20 runs worse on defense.

But let's really compare. Let's not even take Guillen's time from the Royals as representative. Let's take his four best seasons (and by "four best" I mean "the only four seasons in his surprisingly long career where he can be said to have been good). Let's leave out a discussion probing into the secrete behind his 2003 breakout. Let's use an offensive metric that adjusts for positional value as well as park effects -- VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). It's a counting stat, not a rate stat, so if a guy misses games due to injury, like Sweeney did, it will show up (or, more accurately, not show up).

Guillen's four best seasons by VORP:

2003 (Cin + Oak): 39.9
2007 (Sea): 28.0
2005 (Was): 26.8
2004 (Ana): 26.0

Sweeney (all in KC):

2000: 51.6
2002: 48.3
1999: 44.6
2001: 42.2

I think this speaks for itself. Mike Sweeney's best four seasons are all better than Guillen's best season. It gets even more interesting -- Sweeney's 5th best season is 2005 (!), at 34.8. That's better than all but one of Jose Guillen's seasons. Sweeney's 6th and 7th best seasons are a bit over 20, so close to being on JoGui's list. All the rest of JoGui's seasons are around replacement level or below it. The current season might actually be one of his better ones not listed. He's at 9.0 currently. Sweeney's course managed a 2.7 this season.

I don't boo players, and think others should back off. But JoGui sucks this year, and to compare his performance at this stage with the seasons in which Mike Sweeney was "disappointing" fans is ridiculous.

respectably competitive club this past offseason, he likely would have put up better numbers, would not have been given reason for some of the off-field antics (it's likely that he would not called out a competitive club's team members as "babies"), and the fans of that team would probably not be as negative about him as Royals fans are. $12 million per for a corner outfield (bad defense/good arm) that puts up 25 HR, 100 RBI, and has some "clubhouse"/personality issues is not nearly the lightning rod for fan criticism on other teams as he would have been for the Royals.

My question to everyone who bashes Guillen to the point of saying that he was a terrible signing and the Royals never should have done it*: How would you have liked the alternative? I suppose the only one I can think of (without crazily speculating on possible trades last offseason) is an outfield of DeJesus, Maier/Gathright, and Teahen. Do you suppose that a Maier/Gathright platoon would have replaced the 100 RBI (almost) that Guillen provided? Or would you rather have just re-signed The Eyeball Assassin (ask Karen Kornacki), Emil Brown?

*I hereby propose that anyone who claims the Guillen signing was a horrendous mistake MUST also include their preferred alternative for a corner OF spot for the 2008 season in the same comment in which he/she decries the signing. I hate it when people just rip something without having a reasonable alternative or solution in mind.

Leaving aside the unsubstantiated notion that lineup protection measurably effects performance (check the difference between numbers in Guillen's 2004 with Anaheim's playoff team [you know, the one he got kicked off of]) and the 2005 Washington Nationals), let me just say this:

He's better than Emil Brown. At least as a hitter. Emil Brown sucks (well, he did out perform Guillen in their respective 2006s, and they were pretty close in 2005, but yeah, EMIL). Guillen's been about 1 win better this yeaer as a hitter. Despite Emil's rep, he's actually not a horrible defender 0 Guillen is one of the worst in baseball this year. I'd say it comes out as a wash. But let's let Guillen off the hook, just look at offense, and say he's about 12 runs better than Emil. That's a bit over one win.

So, yeah, the Royals were one win better with Guillen this year. YOu know what? I'd rather have Brown on a one-year, 1.5 million dollar contract and have one less win and have the extra money to spend on someone who can actually, you know, HIT next year, or whatever. So, yeah, I think that's a better idea. And that has nothing to do with personality -- just performance.

I don't think so. But whatever. If Emil Brown were batting cleanup for us again, he would not have anywhere near 95 RBIs or 20 HRs. He'd probably have 10/75. So 20 runs, does that make a big difference? It sure does. It could turn a lot of those 1 and 2 run wins we had into extra innings and losses.

And let's talk about VORP. It's a league wide stat correct? How many Royals players are above 0 for VORP? Who would we replace our underachievers with? We let Brown go, so who replaces Guillen to make our team better? He's the best we have besides DeJesus.

it's free at baseball prospectus. But if you really think Guillen is the best besides DDJ, just check it. Here's the rankings before tonight, where just about everyone who played had a hit (Gordon with two, including a homer, Aviles and Shealy with a homer, DDJ with some hit(s)). Also keep in mind that this is a COUNTING stat, not a rate stat, so guys who have only played a little bit of the season have no "small sample size" advantage. This will all change in the morning -- JoGui will be lower after his clutch-tastic 0-4 with a GIDP. This is purely offense, keep in mind. It doesn't include JoGui's defensive "contribution." it is adjusted for park and position.

1) Mike Aviles 30.1
2) DDJ 29.7
3) The Smirk 17.1
4) Grudz (!) 12.0
5) Callaspo (!!) 9.2
6) "Great" Guillen 9.0
7) Miguel "I thought I was starting" Olivo 6.4
8) Ryan "I've only been here two weeks and I'm halfway to $36 million" Shealy 5.0

So, yeah, Guillen is the highest paid. But that's totally worth it for your 6th best player. Well, 6th best position player. The only pitchers that have higher VORPS are Meche, Greinke, Soria, RamRod, Mahay, and Nunez. SO he's TOTALLY the thirteenth most valuable Royal. But he has a chance to catch the corpose of Mark Grudz and maybe even Alberto Callaspo, who's had less than half the ABs. Hope Alberto doesn't get to mad and drunk and mistake Guillen for his wife! Leave that stuff to John Bale...

Look, I'm totally with you on the new stats. For the most part, I believe them. By the way, I was talking about Guillen being our 2nd best OFer in the whole system offensively. Not our 2nd best player. I agree with you, he was a waste of money for the production. If we had paid him $4M a year, maybe not.

Here's 2 stat lines. Tell me which one has the higher VORP:

____PA R 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB CS AVG OBP SLG
A: 556 70 34 1 16 57 65 115 7 2 .259 .351.434
B: 609 65 30 4 15 58 45 130 4 3 .254 .312.403

They are essentially the same except one has 50 fewer plate appearances with 20 more walks and 15 less strikeouts. Obviously, you're going to pick player A for VORP. Gordon is 18.9 compared to Teahen's player B at -1.7. Is there really that much difference there? I think VORP overrates walks a bit too much. And therein lies the problem. Guillen doesn't walk. Yes, it hurts the team. If Guillen adds 30 walks to his total I wonder how much his VORP goes up. That's basically a little more than 1 extra walk a week. With those numbers in place his stats equal or exceed Gordon's in every category except walks (12 less), OBP, and SBs (and let's say Guillen scores 7/30 times, tying Gordon in Runs). So let's just say for the sake of argument those walks elevate him to exactly Gordon's VORP. That means those 30 walks=11.3 VORP, or .38 VORP per walk. So if a guy like Adam Dunn walks 118 times so far this year, that should be a VORP of .38*118=44.8. But his VORP is about 33, not 44.8. So it seems his massive strikeout totals have hurt him, or the more you have of a stat, the less of a return you get in VORP. I don't know exactly what goes into VORP, but I have a feeling this winter I'm going to seriously look these stats over and see exactly what makes them tick. I have a math and economics degree and I just don't think they add up. But we'll see, I could be wrong.

Just in short -- Tom Tango has shown that VORP actually undervalues walks/OBP. www.statcorner.com has a stats like wOBA (rate stat, cf. it's quantitative sister, bRAA) that correct this problem. Jose Guillen wasn't even a league-average hitter this year, and it gets worse once you adjust for position (one advantage VORP does have over bRAA).

Stat Coern also has park-adjusted fielding independent pitching stats. Interestingly, they should that by both the quality of pitching and quantity of it, Ramon Ramirez was better than Soria this year. But hes not a Proven Closer and we have to leave soria in the bullpen OMG!!!11111

Royals Review is where a lot of informed, stat-minded Royals fans hang out.

This is my problem. The Royals have been so bad for so long, I couldn't pick a league average hitter out of another team's lineup. I've grown accustomed to DeJesus's puny production being about the best this team sees unless Sweeney was healthy. I've got an unhealthy bias here.

Another underrated player. While his CF defense has seemingly fallen off this year (small sample size warning -- thanks, Trey and Dayton for all those thrilling Gathright appearance sin CF!), a 114 OPS+ is very good for a center fielder. DDJ's production has just been overshadowed by being a the same division with two of the best centerfielders in the game (Sizemore and Granderson), and, until this year, the overrated Toriii Hunter (DDJ was a better defender last year, although his bat was off. DDJ's OPS+ is better this year, as his is career OPS+).

First of all, I can't believe this conversation is now comparing Emil Brown to anyone. One more year of E-7 and I would have burned any and all Royals clothing.

If you want to compare hindsight, the Royals should have traded Mike Sweeney to the Angels when they had the chance. As I understood it, they could have gotten half the Angels AAA team, 4 starters, cash and the Rally Monkey. And look how they are doing now. It would be hard prove that the money saved from a team with even worse numbers would actually get you better ballplayers. Many more factors than just salary.

...I'll still take that dang Rally Monkey...
JT

Yeah, I can't believe I'm comparing Giullen to Brown either. But that's how bad he has sucked. He's anywhere from -11 to -24 on defense this year. Emil was hard to watch making errors. Guillen has the "advantage" of not having enough range to make those errors -- they just fall in for singles.

I think this year we can look at signing several lesser peices, rather than having to find one true building block. I look at what Hinske and Pena have done for Tampa Bay and look at the fact that both were originally signed for less than 1M off the scrap heap. Finding those kinds of deals (somewhat similar to Dotel) when coupled with the young nucleus (that, yes, needs to perform at or above it's expectation) could make a huge difference.

We wasted 600+ ABs on Pena, Gload and Gathwright, not to mention a ton on Teahen as a starting COF. That's a lot of room for merely replacement level production to provide a significant improvement. Where are all these "replacement level" players and why can't DM find them?

I would avoid these guys like a plague. Furcal never has been that good, and he looks like he's gonna battle injuries the rest of his career. Burrell's attitude has always been in question, and it seems rather fishy that after three or four down years he would suddenly find a spark in a contract year. When he got off to the great start this year(he has now tailed off), I told myself it must be a contract year for him.

I always note that the backbone of the Yankees dominance was the 5 young players they brought up at essentially the same time: Jeter, Posada, Williams, Petitte and Rivera. Home grown talent at up the middle positions. Then they filled in around that talent with FAs to win.

And one reason why they finally no longer could maintain their winning was that these guys finally got old and they failed to bring up new blood in sufficient numbers to fill their shoes.

...we also have to remember Dayton's previous jobs...He was a scout, then a player development director, then an international scout, then player personnel director, then Assistant GM. Sounds like the kind of guy who would want to build from within...
JT

think of all the awesome players the Braves developed on Dayton's watch:

Brian McCann

um, Tim Hudson? uh, Andy Marte! no... um Jeff Francoeur!

The Bravest Way To Build a Baseball Team

Note: This is all in fun, don't freak out.