One problem with making trades

...is really the only thing holding him back from being a good catcher. Yes I know his arm isn't the strongest for gunning baserunners, but his defense is something to be valued.

Anyone know some viable options at catcher? Who's got a good prospect in the wings? I don't know who's available.

...there for a minute, I thought I was one of the few who thought that RBI's meant something...I needed some support there...
JT

It's hard to take anyone seriously who claims that Alex Gordon has been a better offensive player than Guillen.

I'm sure that some people still find it hard to take seriously those who claim that humans evolved from apes, too, just as most people found it hard to take seriously those people who claimed that the earth travels around the sun.

"That's crazy. I don't care what your stupid telescopes and astral charts say, if you watch the sun rise every day, you'll know that the universe is geocentric."

I take it your Baseball Prospectus subscription ran out? You can still get the team audits for free... VORP is a counting stat. Despite 50 less plate appearance than JoGui, Alex Gordon's VORP as of now is 17.1, Guillen's is 9.0. If that's too "nerdy" for you, just check out that crazy new rate stat, OPS. Even better, OPS+. Jose Guillen is making a late run at being a league average hitter!

I know the stat geeks hate this stat, but there's gotta be a reason that the same guys drive in runs year after year. Guillen has batted all over the order with a number of different teams, yet he's always a 90-100 RBI guy (when he gets a full season). Why do you suppose that is?

It might be where they hit in the order, behind guys who have superior skills (pretty much everyone on the Royals but TPJ, and especially Gordon and DDJ, who hit ahead of Guillen when he was at his hottest), at getting on base.

It's hard to tell from my mom's basement, but I guess maybe future Hall of Famer Tony Batista was even more awesome than Guillen in 2004. Did you know that Garrett Anderson has as many 100+ RBI seasons as Mickey Mantle? Garrett Anderson, undoubtedly one of the 10 greatest players ever.

4. BABIP presumes that all hit balls are roughly equal and that each pitcher will give up roughly the same amount of liners, grounders, etc. Presumes the same for hitters, too. Yet, we know that some hitters are consistently hitting rockets (even if they're caught) while others hit lots of soft ground balls (think Ken Harvey here). All is not equal. BABIP tends to be a leaning post for hitters with too many strikeouts.

Well, maybe BABIP does, that's why we have xBABIP, that takes into account flies, line drives, and groudballs and their respective liklihood of turning into hits. That's how we see that Mike Aviles will regress. It might also have helped people see that Jose Guillen's 2007 was extremely lucky.

1. Agree
2. Agree
3. Agree...Runs wins games right? Score more than the other team? This isn't Golf...
4. Agree
5. Disagree...he knows the pitchers and calls a good game. That is the description of a backup catcher. Why not grab a better hitting Catcher and have Buck help him learn the pitchers?

...you stole my thunder...lol...
JT

I am amazed how many people feel like we should stand pat. This team has a LOT of improvement necessary. I'm not advocating spending money just for the heck of it. I'm advocating spending money smartly, because it has been made available, and there are definitely holes and areas to improve on this team. Standing pat will yield largely the same results next year. There may be some gradual improvement through individual skills growth of our young players but I really don't see this team suddenly exploding to the top of the division.

I think you will see that even the Red Sox will make moves and try to improve themselves. Do they have way more money available? Yes. But, that misses the point. They are one of the best teams and will still do something. So will the Angels. If those two teams see themselves as needing improvement, then the Royals definitely need serious improvement.

Seriously.

What don't we know about Teahen? He's been here 4 years and hasn't done what you propose "he can do."

But what has he gone through? Rookie Season (which was supposed to be spent in AAA until Chris Truby got hurt), Shoulder Surgery year 2, New OF position w/ repaired shoulder year 3, and now this year where he has moved a few times on the field. It's not the move to 3B that has helped his swing in the late season. He's getting comfortable with his arms again...driving the ball better.

What does Mark have?

Base running proficiency. Good speed. Decent arm from an OF corner (17 assists last year...yes I know it was because they were testing his arm/shoulder...but still). Good clubhouse rep. A chaotic power/avg bat yes, but given the afore mentioned issues, I am willing to let him go another round in KC before deciding on him. Let the man get fully healthy. Look what happened to KK when he got fully healthy.

If I haven't said it elsewhere here, I should say that, for some reason, Guillen seems like a guy who might actually be pretty cool to just hang out with. I can totally see the "funny" stuff. I have good friend like that. Oddly, though, none of them are getting $12 million.

[Ironically, of course, when Mark Teahen is funny, this is seen as him "not being serious enough!!!!1111"]

My main problem isn't with his personality -- it's with fans pretending like it's actually a "good thing" or that he's such a good player he needs to be saying this. Indeed, what gets me going is not Jose's performance -- well, that's irritating, but, although I realize the Star isn't known for its hard-hitting investigative pieces, I'm pretty sure he didn't hold a gun to DMGM's head and make him sign such a stupid contract.

Anyway, my problem is that fans and writers say/write things like "well, maybe he hasn't been quite as good as we wanted, but he's still been good/the best guy on the team." Um, no, he hasn't. Not even close. "Best guy on the team" is a joke. Even just considering offense, again, Aviles, DDJ, Gordon, Grudz (!) and Callaspo have all been better. He hasn't even been "good." It's only been the last couple of weeks that's he's managed to be above replacement level. Once you factor in his abysmal defense (worst on a team of terrible defenders), well... Maybe not the worst player ever. Barry Zito also means it's not the worst contract in baseball. But let's not even pretend he's good. He was a decent hitter in 2007 (bolstered by luck on BABIP). Even then he didn't hit righties, and his defense was just as bad. Even his one offesensive skill-- ISO, is declining, particularly against right-handers.

Sorry, I'm repeating myself. As far as "slug" goes, if you mean power, well, as I said, he does have the highets ISO on the team. Good. He's a BB gun against righties, though, and that's a trend. If you mean slugging percentage, well (leaving aside recent callups), Aviles is better, and DDJ and Olivo are just a bit off. Again, he's pathetic against right-handed pitching.

I fully concur on the problem being what management lets him get away with, and liked your blog on that topic. It weakens Hillman's leadership. Look, sometimes that's the way it is. But this isn't Manny Ramirez or Barry Bonds. It's a dude who was only genuinely good when he was 'roided up, and doesn't look like he's getting back to that. At 26, he was worse than Mark Teahen -- he had John Buck numbers. So I think you're dead on, there. And that's really the big concern about JoGui -- the Royals knew what they were getting personality-wise, why did they handle it this way? Personality aside, the much more important issue is -- many people saw this level of performance coming -- why didn't Dayton Moore? As right as he was about Meche (and about pitching in general), he was dead wrong about Guillen, and it's costing the Royals. That is somethign worth writing about.

Thanks for responding, I really do appreciate your work.

then you shoud really be upset with the signing.

His career average is around 100 OPS+ -- exactly league average. If you think a league average hitter (not a league everage hitting RF, but hitter) who is among the worst defensive players in baseball is worth $12 million a year, well, I dunno what to tell you.

He didn't come close to his peak of 2003-2005. I wonder what would have stimulated that performance?

I can see why one can totally expect a 33 year-old outfielder to turn it around and suddenly be a good hitter again. That always happens.

I forgot to add that Alberto Callaspo also has as higher VORP than the $36 million dollar man.

I wonder if Tony Batista is still available?

You know, I was upset with the signing at the time and I still wish we could have had someone better. But that didn't happen. Would you like me to pull a 120 OPS+ guy that hits 30+ HRs a year out of my ass? How many more games would we have lost without the extra 40 or so RBIs that Guillen contributed over Emil Brown? And if not Brown, then who? I just don't understand where you think the extra production would come from, and without Guillen this year, I think you still have a bunch of "babies" on the field. They did some growing up this year and for that reason I like Guillen. Was he worth his salary? In the words of Miguel Olivo, "Not just no, but HELL NO!" I have no idea why we gave him what we did, but what's done is done. If we had signed him for $4M a year would he be a bargain? Hell yes! Remember, there is no salary cap in baseball, it doesn't matter what we spend on our players. And if you refer to our artifical cap imposed by ownership I would say your argument lies not with Guillen, but Mr. Glass.

BTW, I think everyone should be extremely happy we didn't end up with a bigger turkey in the clubhouse than Jose. A turkey by the name of Andruw Jones with a 32 OPS+. And I still can't believe the Royals gave 200+ ABs to Tony Freakin Pena Jr who came up with the best total ever. An OPS+ of 1!

up with ?

your point is made, but he's under contract. Do you hold onto him or get what you can for him on the market?

and if you dump, who are you picking up and for how much? keep in mind:

1) legit players will ONLY come here for the $$.
2) this team needs so many holes filled that 100MM in FA would barely cover it.
3) do you put all your money on pitching or hitting? remember, this is the AL - where the home run is king.

just curious.

...but I didn't do my research.

The Royals are kind of stuck, I guess. If it were up to me (and thankfully for all, it isn't), I'd try to dump Guillen to the first suitor stupid enough to pick up most or all of his salary. Even if its for a bag of balls. Yeah, the Royals might have a hard time replacing him, but the saved money can go to another free agent acquisition the offseason.

I'm assuming that the Royals have money for at least one more free agent this offseason, even with joGui on the books. Teixeira is going to go for way too much. I think the Royals should go for Dunn or Burrell. Yes, they suck on defense, but given that stats show they're only barely worse than Guillen, given that they can, you know, actually hit, I think it's worth a try, even if Guillen is still around.

Don't give them anything. Dunn has "old player skills." There are mixed opinions on what they'll get. I'd go 3/51 or 4/64 for Dunn, and just 3/51 for Burrell as a second choice.

After that, well, if his back checks out, I'd look at Furcal. I'ver read that he won't be able to get 3/39 again. Well, heck, if the Royals dump Guillen's salary, they could potentially get one of Dunn/Burrell and Furcal. Or at least try.

After that, maybe Raul Ibanez. He's a good hitter, but he's just too old. I wouldn't go more than a one-year deal with some sort of club option for a second year.

I love Orlando Hudson, and actually think he's a better overall player than Furcal, but he's going to get too much, and Furcal fits the Royals' positional needs better.

Eric Hinske might be another guy to target, if he comes cheap. He's crap against lefties, but, again, he can't be much worse than Guillen on defense, and he crushes righties -- the only guys the Royals have now who are legitimately good against RHP are DeJesus and Gordon. But I'm not sure Hinske will be willing to come to KC for a two-year deal.

That's just the offense. I'm not sure about pitching. I think that's realistic, but the Royals should decide who they will and won't take. I really didn't like the "well we didn't get Torii or Andruw, so we might as well give Jose Guillen $36 million," strategy. If they can't get those guys at the price that's good, well, they aren't gong to contend in 2009 anyway. Save the money for the next class. The priority in the offense should be to extend Greinke long-term, anyway.

And, again, dumping JoGui would make a lot of things easier. Teahen has been a big disappointment, but when you factor in defense, he might not be worse than Guillen. Adding a cheap RHP platoon guy (Teahen's splits this year are surely an anomaly) might give the Royals an above-replacement-level corner guy.

Just some quick thoughts.

I agree with most of what you said. As much as I'm for leaving players alone and letting them just play baseball (foul-mouthed or not) I'm also willing to cut losses and make the team better. That includes chemistry. However, I don't think moving just him at this point is the answer either.

There are as many quality AAA-level guys sitting on other teams that could be had for a guy like Teahen or Buck or others who haven't gotten it done for 3 years. Is this a step up from what we have now? Who knows? Would you rather find out than struggle through another season of knowing what you have? I think a lot of replacements could be had this way for a lot less than filling everything in FA. I'd save the FA $ for two quality starters. And if you can pull an Ibanez off the heap and he still has some gun from his position, then go for it. But don't sign them to Guillen type dollars.

Unless you get the opportunity to get an Uggla or someone with serious pop far an above their average at their position.

1. I agree
2. I agree
3. I agree
4. I agree
5. I agree...(If you give Teahen another shot, give Banny another shot too. I think he has what it takes to mentally pitch a good game...)
And I'm sure if there was a 6th point, I'd agree with it...
JT

Thanks for that link. That is a very interesting page and website.

You did fail to note that there IS a Royal on the underrated list, Mr. Aviles. I thank him because I view him as the biggest spark to the Royals season this year and they'd really be hurting without him.

Although, DeJesus was also a pleasant surprise for me this year. Kudos to both.

Thanks for pointing that out. Aviles has been good. I know his offense has been greatly fueled by BABIP luck, but it's nice that the Royals at least have a non-embarrassing stopgap with a league-minimum salary for the next few years. And his defense, panned by some before his call-up, has been a pleasant surprise.

That made it sound like I was not high on aviles. He is the team leader in VORP. He's been wonderful. I just hope we all have realistic expectations going into next year.

He's also been helped by his destruction of LHP this year, although is numbers versus RHP are better than Billy Butler and Management-Appointed Team Leader Jose Guillen.

1. Not sure nine words out of a blog post are worthy of a 12-paragraph rant, but I'll just say that I'm not making the case. Just that there's a case to be made for the team leader in HR and RBI, especially when a guy's getting close to 100 RBIs on a terrible offensive team. Again, I'm not making the argument (Aviles will probably get my vote). Just saying there are those who might.

2. Hosey's so dreamy.

"Current Judgment: Great Signing"

--Sam Mellinger, JUne 27, 2008

I think it's also fair to say that you haven't been eager to discuss Jose Guillen's performance at all this year, well, except when he was hot and went on the "babies" rant that was undoubtedly what fueled the Royals' thrilling march toward 70 wins. I'm sure his clubhouse-glue and management's excellent handling of it will make off-season extension negotiations with Zack Greinke (the team's true MVP) all that much easier.

I guess, in all honesty, I expect a bit more from you, since Rany says you are "one of us." I appreciate the slight-bit of self-deprecation.

I have to say I was put off after the "babies" rant that you managed to say that Guillen's attitude was helpful, and contrasted it with Sweeney. So I'm still overreacting to that.

Look, I really don't care if Guillen's a jerk if he's producing (which he isn't). But it really pisses me off when his personality problems are elevated into a mysteriously helpful "asskicking" for the team. If a guy being a jerk shouldn't count against him, why should it be allowed to count for him?

Why the Sweeney put-down? If it all comes down to production... compare their career numbers by age. It isn't pretty. Until he went down with injury (surprise), as I pointed out elsewhere, Sweeney led JoGui in VORP for much of the year.

Here's another player who lead a horrible team in RBIs and HRs: Tony Batista for the Expos in 2004. Indeed, he was even more "valuable" that JoGui's been this year: 32 HRs and 110 RBIs. Frank Robinson had him hitting cleanup all year. His OPS+ was 80. So, yeah, his rate stats were even worse than JoGui's this year, but, heck, he hit all those homers and RBI. DO you think that he just had a "knack" for driving in runs, or that it had to do with his place in the order. JoGui got big chunks of his RBIs not only when he was hot, but when DDJ and Gordon -- the two best OBP guys on the team -- were hitting ahead of him. I'll leave the "homers on a terrible team" thing alone -- unless you really still believe in lineup protection.

It's all good. Keep up the otherwise good work.

How's that for a long response to a four line comment?

please don't let this be the lineup next year.

this team needs a serious power overhaul to EVER compete in the AL, especially the central.

the rotation is far from complete. davies didn't show me many signs of being a quality starter at all against competition that hadn't already given up on the season.

this team needs more utility players like we need more national debt.

Can we please keep Teahen in one spot please? I know he does well at 3B...but what about Gordon? Does he go back to AAA to learn LF? No. Teahen just needed time to get back to his old swing after shoulder surgery. I think he will be much better next year as he learns to be more aggressive. Keep Gordon at 3B...show him the confidence that he can make it after a rough season.

If this is the lineup next year someone better be hanged.

WE ALREADY KNOW WHAT WE HAVE IN TEAHEN. He is one of those bench players - AT BEST. Gathright, WE ALREADY KNOW - dump him. If Gload is not the utility infielder you think we need, dump him. Buck, WE ALREADY KNOW - dump him.

Shealy, maybe we don't fully know what we have with him, we should bring him to spring to see. Maier, who knows.

But, DM has said he's going to blow up this team. Even the dumps I've (we've all talked about them) outlined above definitely should be done. But beyond that there need to be some significant improvements through trades or FA. Unfortunately, we'll get nothing in trade unless we offer Greinke or similar. I'm not sold on the utility of doing that.

We need to shake ourselves out of the "we aren't going to win next year anyway" give up plan. That's fine for late in the season when you really do know. But, for next year, major improvements need to be implemented. We should try to win and improve.

In the lineup I proposed earlier our bench is weak. I would be fine with dropping Gathright, Gload, etc. but we don't have the minor leagues to fill their spots.

However, don't sign Furcal. All signs point to Aviles playing an adequate SS and Callaspo is coming on at 2b. Why spend $12-15 million a year on an oft injured aging SS. If we want to sign one free agent, then we should sign Burrell from the Phillies. Dunn seems like he might be a bit of a cancer. As for Gordon in LF, why not? That is where bad defensive 3rd basemen go, i.e. Ryan Braun.

Grienke is the only piece we have to really blow the team up. I think that statement was in the heat of the moment. Is anybody going to give us anything for the players we have? NO. Blowing the team up would have us take on too much payroll through free agency and I don't think that is best for the franchise in the long run.

I agree totally on Furcal. I am very worried that DM is very interested in him but I see him becoming another Mike Sweeney. Although, his statistics show that typically he has put in a lot of games per season. Unfortunately, back problems don't tend to go away.

I do like Callaspo. I think Gordon will continue to grow. Shealy is worth giving more time especially if some more AAA time will benefit Kila, which it should.

I just have bad reactions to keeping Teahen as a starter, or keeping Gathright, Gload, Buck at all.

Oh, and TPJ. If he is still on Royals next year it better be in AA or AAA with a different hitting coach.

Speaking of that, blowing up the team better include at least getting rid of Barnett.

Please!
I'll go one step further - If Pena is still living anywhere in KC, it better be because he found a job at Cerner or Westlake Ace. Not because he's playing professional baseball for this franchise.

I have a feeling we're going to see 2-3 coaches gone soon. Speaking of which, I wish the Frank White deal wouldn't have gone down as ugly as it did - he would have made a solid bench coach for Trey. What better person to mentor on KC Baseball who also had a hand in the development of some of these guys? Too bad he's up in the booth instead.