It's only Aug. 21, still 36 games left in this regular season, so let's start by saying there's plenty of ball left in the Royals' season.
Lets also say there's Olympic basketball to watch, football starting up, the weather cooling off, and all sorts of reasons to be happy right now.
But as we begin our Thursdays, fresh off the Royals losing their 11th game in 13 tries -- not even Gil Meche could save them -- dropping to 3.5 games behind the fourth place, Murhpy's Law Indians, and now needing to beat Cy Young Lee to avoid a sweep, here is the question of the day:
Is this the lowest point of the Royals' season?
Now, this is sort of like a presidential race before the primaries: there are plenty of candidates here. They broke off a seven-game losing streak that brought a giddy fan base back to reality. They got no-hit. Then lost 12 in a row.
They've been shut down by pitchers with questionable big league credentials, their $6 million setup reliever is struggling in Omaha, and then there's Brian Bannister's recent string of uh-oh.
But I would say this is worse.
There is reason to believe that hope is on its way. The Royals just spent $6 million on a draft pick who may or may not hit a lot of home runs in Kansas City, and more than $10 million total, so maybe this all going to get better.
But that's part of the point here. There was a couple days there where message boards and my e-mail inbox loaded up with giddy fans already counting the interest on the Royals' unprecedented draft investment.
Throw in some optimism for pre-free agency guys like Zack Greinke, Joakim Soria and Mike Aviles, add a dash of expectations for Alex Gordon and Billy Butler (they've got to get better, right?) and if you hold it in the right light, and squint just so, well, that 2010 thing seems realistic.
Then comes the backhand slap across the face, leaving a big red imprint that looks a little like reality.
The Royals are now a game behind where they were last year. We all remember the collapse of last September, and can anyone say with certainty that this team won't do the same?
Either way, they're on pace for 71 wins, which would be a disappointing improvement of just two games from 2007.
The Royals have lost to mostly good teams during this current stretch, but, then, that's part of it, too. It's fine to go 13-5 through the Class AAAA National League, but would anyone be upset if I mentioned their win percentage against American League teams works out to 99 losses over 162 games?
If this team is going to compete by 2010, it's going to have to beat the good teams, too. Pitching has failed recently, and when that happens, it gets ugly in a hurry.
Trey Hillman has justifiably called out his hitters during this stretch (31 runs in 13 games), and the pitching/defense has been just as bad at times (83 runs).
Of course, this morning's writing comes fresh off Hillman's easy-to-second-guess decision of pulling a dominant Meche for an overworked bullpen after seven innings and 104 pitches last night.
The rotation is Zack-and-Gil-then-hope-not-to-get-drilled right now. When it gets like this, you just wonder how it'll get better.
Big picture, there are still reasons to hope. But the last two weeks, this has been as ugly as it's been all season.
Maybe my memory's just short, and the 12-game losing streak is fading, but to me, because of the way they've lost these games, the stranglehold they now have on last place (again), the injury to Hochevar, the anemia of the offense, the struggles of Banny, this is about as bad as it's been all season.
Back in May, during the 12-game streak, it was only May, plenty of season left, all that. Heck, they were only a game under .500 when that freefall began, so there were more positive vibes to go on.
At this point, to borrow a phrase, you have to believe what you're seeing. What we're seeing is a last-place team (again), deep into the season, again unable to avoid a miserable stretch.
That's why this is my vote for the lowest point of the season.
It's easy to blame the struggles on the woeful state of the franchise and its depth when Moore took over, but here is the unavoidable fact:
By and large, Moore's acquisitions have been so bad they had to be benched, often for the supposedly horrible players from the abysmal Baird administration.
Moore wanted the Royals to emphasize defense, but the team is now absolutely horrible defensively. Why? Because the defensively-oriented players Moore brought in have been so putrid offensively they had to be benched.
Moreover, realizing he was putting a tragic offensive team on the field, Moore felt compelled to sign Guillen and Olivo, two vastly overrated offensive players whose strong arms don't make up for their complete inability to play even AA caliber defense otherwise.
Not only has Moore shown extreme impatience in free agency, but the approximately $100 million the Royals have lit fire to in the last two years has purchased a team that can't pitch, hit, or field. The reason: Instead of applying a level-headed approach of trying to maximize value by position (both in terms of winning and in terms of wins-added per dollar), the Royals are lurching along with an untenable overarching philosophy.
I still believe - or believe in the value of believing - that the Royals have a bright future, but Dayton Moore will need to learn from some very bad mistakes if the team is to build the kind of talent-rich organization that can eventually dig out of this morass.