Why the Royals are still a long ways off: Banny edition

So I know some of you are looking for Brian Bannister to be sent to Omaha, and that stinker of a start yesterday is as compelling a case as a pitcher can make for the minor leagues.

I promise there's a point here, please stick with me, and this blog post will hopefully point out another reason why the Royals' franchise is in rough shape but also why it's getting better.

But first I think there's some value (maybe it's just perverse) of looking back at just how bad Banny was yesterday.

Baseball Reference's Play Index is a wonderful tool for research and wasting time, and not such a wonderful tool for the men who welcome Banny into various and unfortunate clubs of having pitched horrific games.

For instance, Tom Gordon is the only other player since 1956 to allow 13 or more baserunners in one or fewer innings. He gave up 10 runs in one inning in the Royals' last game of the 1995 season, and, clearly, the franchise still hasn't recovered.

And doesn't it seem too often that the last time something really crappy happened in baseball it happened to the Royals?

Besides Gordon, there are only five other examples of a starting pitcher giving up 10 or more earned runs in one or fewer innings, and, of course, there's one more Royal on the list. They are:

- Edgar Gonzalez, D-Backs, Sept 3, 2004. 1 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, -3 Game Score.

- Joe Decker, Twins, May 12, 1976. 1 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, -4 Game Score.

- Bronson Arroyo, Reds, June 24, 2008. 1 IP, 11 H, 10 ER, -9 Game Score.

- Luke Hudson, Royals, Aug 13, 2006. 1/3 IP, 8 H, 10 ER, -9 Game Score.

- Jason Jennings, Astros, July 29, 2007. 2/3 IP, 8 H, 11 ER, -11 Game Score.

Or, if you believe in Game Score as a top evaluator of one-game dominance or suckatude, Banny's -10 ties him for the 13th-worst pitched start in baseball since 1956, and, of course, one of the starts worst than Banny's was done by a Royal -- Zack Greinke, who gave up 11 runs and 15 hits (but also homered off Russ Ortiz) in Arizona in 2005.

Here are the outings as bad or worse than the turd that Banny threw yesterday. When you look at this list, try to keep in mind that these are the only 13 such starts that exist in more than 180,000* starts by major league pitchers. We're leaving Jennings and Greinke (-11 Game Score, 4 1/3 IP) off the list since they're already listed.

*This number assumes that my math is correct. And it often is not.

- Pat Rapp, Marlins, April 22, 1997. 2 2/3 IP, 13 H, 10 ER, -10 Game Score.

- Jon Garland, White Sox, July 6, 2007. 3 1/3 IP, 11 H, 11 ER, -11 Game Score.

- Jason Marquis, Cardinals, June 21, 2006. 5 IP, 14 H, 13 ER, -11 Game Score.

- Bryan Rekar, Rockies, April 28, 1996. 2 1/3 IP, 10 H, 11 ER, -11 Game Score.

- Yovani Gallardo, Brewers, Aug 8, 2007. 2 2/3 IP, 12 H, 11 ER, -12 Game Score.

- Jerry Augustine, Brewers, May 11, 1982 (against the Royals). 5 IP, 15 H, 12 ER, -12 Game Score.

- Bill Travers, Brewers, Aug 14, 1977. 7 2/3 IP, 18 H, 14 ER, -13 Game Score.

- David Wells, Blue Jays, Aug 20, 1992. 4 1/3 IP, 11 H, 13 ER, -14 Game Score.

- Galen Cisco, Red Sox, July 27, 1962. 5 1/3 IP, 16 H, 11 ER, -14 Game Score.

- Scott Sanders, Tigers, April 14, 1998, 4 IP, 16 H, 11 ER, -15 Game Score.

- Mike Oquist, A's, Aug 3, 1998. 5 IP, 16 H, 14 ER, -21 Game Score.

Now, as best I can tell, 10 of the 13 guys with -10 Game Scores or worse made their next scheduled starts, with varied results.

Arroyo beat the Indians with one earned run surrendered in six innings. Hudson was terrific, beating the A's with one run and five hits over seven innings.

Rekar made his next start a month or so later, Augustine was just a reliever making a spot start, and Cisco was sent to the bullpen and then traded to the Mets.

Now, my point here is not to kick Banny when he's down. And since I've already taken too long to get to that point, here goes:

As bad as you might want him sent down, the ugly truth is that the Royals need him up.

I still think Banny is a solid 4-5 starter in the big leagues, but that point is irrelevant right now. Even if you're convinced he's a Class AAA pitcher, for the Royals, he's a big league pitcher, and this is why they just spent more than $10 million on signing draft picks.

Carlos Rosa is in Omaha, where he recently missed a few weeks with a sore elbow. The Royals have a lot of hopes for him, but a promotion right now would be ahead of their timetable.

After Rosa, well, you don't want to know the other options in Omaha after Rosa (who, by the way, is 4-3 witha 4.09 ERA).

The only reason they were able to demote Davies is because the schedule laid out so they didn't need a fifth starter. With Davies now down, they'd have to make up an injury to Banny to bring Davies up and have him make Banny's next start.

This point goes for Banny, and it goes for anybody else you might want sent to Omaha: As much as the Royals are improving their farm system, they're still at least a year, probably more, away from being at the point where they have big league ready players in their farm system, available for promotion when someone is under-performing.

The Royals just wrote some very large checks that say they're serious about improving the quality of their farm system. They also just traded a good big league reliever for Paulo Orlando, a minor leaguer who was the fastest baserunner and best defensive outfielder in the White Sox's system according to Baseball America.

The Royals think Orlando would've been a second or third round pick if he was in the draft this year, so they are very much addressing their weak farm system.

Meanwhile, the lack of big league ready minor leaguers means the big league club is operating without a safety net, and without the option of replacing most any of their under-performing players.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on August 18, 2008 - 8:31am.
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Submitted by crawford on August 18, 2008 - 11:57am.

I agree, Aviles needs to start hitting to wake the offense up. But it says a lot when we have Gordon, Teahen, Buck, Butler on the roster but Aviles is the guy everybody looks to to make it click.

Drop the dang purses and hit the ball.

Submitted by CMKeller on August 18, 2008 - 10:20am.

we need to know if there's got to be something wrong with him, and something's got to be done to figure it . The guy had an ERA under 4 last year - he may not be that good, but he shouldn't be this bad. Over the winter, we all drooled as we heard him speak like he had some idea in his mind why he did so much better than anyone expected him to. But if his smarts are what did the trick, and his theories are right, they should work fine this year as well, if he could pitch nearly as well.

Is it his arm slot? His deception abilities? Is he landing on the wrong part of his foot? Someone needs to analyze and work with him on fixing what's gone wrong, and it's certainly easier to tinker when you're facing minor leaguers than when you're about to face J D Drew and David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia. If there's absolutely nothing different about him, and it was just a truckload of dumb luck last year, the best way to find out is to see if his troubles persist at a lower level (which means something's gone wrong) or if he excels there (which means he was lucky last year but is now overmatched).

Chaim Mattis Keller
New York City's # 1 Royals Fan!

Submitted by AxDxMx on August 18, 2008 - 9:32am.

Unless Aviles starts hitting again. He was the difference and now he is 4 for his last 32 over the past week. That's .125. We are going down in flames unless he turns it around quick.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on August 18, 2008 - 9:21am.

Sam, nice polite post about Bannister. At least he can be proud of making a list this year. Be it good or bad. As I listened to yesterday's 1st inning debacle, I remembered back at the beginning of the season when he started hot in the first few weeks and ESPN interviewed him on baseball tonight and started making comparisons to Maddux. Oy veh...

8/18/08 - Here comes the apathy...

Still feeling good about 20 more wins in the next 6 weeks?

Submitted by Old Man Duggan on August 19, 2008 - 12:08am.

I'd rather see if the Royals can do anything for another month or so, than usher in what's sure to be an even more disappointing Chiefs season. The Chiefs are only a season removed from a playoff appearance (albeit a fluke of one), and I think we can't feel safe hoping for a single-digit loss season.

Old Man Duggan: The Inconsiderate Prick

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