The Royals should be finalizing and announcing their deal with fourth-round pick Tim Melville soon, and meanwhile, Eric Hosmer continues to wait out a decision we'd all like to have.
He'll either sign for the Royals' top offer, which will almost certainly be enough millions to take care of his family for a generation or two before he ever puts on a professional uniform, or he'll take a scholarship to instantly be one of the best players on one of the country's best baseball teams at Arizona State.
And to think, my decision was whether to rush a frat or not.
He's being advised by Scott Boras, which means this will be a tough negotiation and that if everything works out the way the Royals hope -- if they sign Hosmer and he turns into a star -- they'll have him for six years before he really cashes in with free agency.
Boras' history is that if he doesn't like what a team is offering, he will take it right up until the deadline to see if the offer goes up in a last-second panic.
That's what he did last year with Mike Moustakas, the Royals' No. 2 overall pick, who signed for $4 million against Boras' advice. That bonus was about 25% more than MLB's recommended payout for the pick.
Hosmer's bonus might be closer to double baseball's recommendation, something approaching or even passing $6 million. Still, like with Moustakas, Hosmer will most likely have to sign a deal with the Royals against Boras' advice.
The vibes I continue to get from both sides are that something will probably be done, but that nobody would be surprised if it didn't.
The Royals' drafting strategy has changed in recent years -- to the point that they're going to sign Melville, who slid because of signability issues, when they used to draft guys too high so they could sign them for cheap -- but nobody selects a kid they don't think will sign.
The thinking from third-party observers is that it'd be awfully tough for an 18-year-old kid to be drafted third in the country, be offered more than $5 million, and turn it down to play for free with the idea that he'd make up the difference (plus interest) three years later.
There's every possibility that he could have a great career at Arizona State, be an All-American, play in the College World Series, crush home runs and further convince scouts of his potential greatness...and STILL not improve upon being drafted third and offered however many millions the Royals end up offering.
Then again, negotiating ploy or not, Boras has always been outspoken in his opinion that ballplayers should go to college.
I'm not aware of a high school kid turning down many millions to play in college. It certainly hasn't happened with a top 10 pick in the last decade.
Matt Harrington was a high school kid who turned down $4 million as the 7th pick in 2000. He went back in the draft the next year...and the year after that...and the year after that...and the year after that...and still hasn't played affiliated ball.
JD Drew wanted $10 million from the Phillies in 1997, turned down $5 million, and played a year of independent league ball, but he was already a college player.
Turning down the money (he did end up getting essentially what he wanted from the Cardinals the next year) meant holding off on pro ball for one year, not three.
It's possible that Hosmer could opt for an independent league, or even play juco ball or something like that, and enter the draft next year if he wasn't happy with the Royals' offer. But neither he nor Boras has given any indication that's an option, and if it was, it wouldn't be a terrible negotiating tactic.
Anyway, Hosmer is good enough that if he does sign tonight, he instantly becomes one of the Royals' best prospects, maybe even the best.
The Royals have every intention and motivation to sign him -- they can't fix a depleted minor league system by NOT signing good players -- but if last year is any indication, they won't fully meet what Boras is asking for.
Last year, the Royals put out an offer they felt comfortable with, a $4 million bonus backed by a process that, if Moustakas would've turned them down, the Royals' brass could've slept well knowing they did everything possible to sign the player.
Expect them to do the same this year, and hope that for a second straight year, an uber-talented 18-year-old takes their millions against Boras' advice.
Turning down the money (he did end up getting essentially what he wanted from the Cardinals the next year) meant holding off on pro ball for one year, not three.
It's possible that Hosmer could opt for an independent league, or even play juco ball or something like that, and enter the draft next year if he wasn't happy with the Royals' offer. But neither he nor Boras has given any indication that's an option, and if it was, it wouldn't be a terrible negotiating tactic.
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