From Omaha: blocked web sites, Mike Aviles, and the Royals need more prospects

OMAHA -- Sitting here in the press box, watching the Omaha Royals, and you're going to think this is a lie but it's as true as your mother's love:

The web filter here blocks Royals.com.

Seriously.

Promise.

I tried to access the official website of the parent club from the press box of its top minor league affiliate, and kept being told it was blocked.

UPDATE: Maybe it was just a temporary thing. An hour or so after my first round of attempts, I was getting through to the official site.

Anyway, my friend and O-Royals broadcaster Mark Nasser pointed out the ridiculous numbers being put up by Nelson Cruz of Oklahoma, the Rangers' Class AAA affiliate playing in the same league as Omaha.

The guy's not on the Rangers' 40-man, and never had much big league success, but shouldn't he get another shot? He's 28, maybe he's just a 4-A player, but those numbers are absurd.

Other observations from a day in Omaha:

* Mark Redman is pitching against the O-Royals tonight. He's 6-3 with a 5.04 ERA at Class AAA, which is actually better than when he was selected for the All-Star Game two years ago, and was that a cheap shot?

* The Royals' system has a pretty good supply of right-handed pitching prospects, particularly starters. Other than that? Not so much.

Ryan Shealy is probably the most big league ready hitter in the system. Kila Kaaihue is having a breakout season, but there is still some skepticism about how real this all is. Mike Moustakas is very highly regarded by teams around baseball.

Past that, and you see why Dayton Moore is so obsessed with improving the farm system. He just wasn't given much when he took over two years ago.

Angel Sanchez is the starting shortstop here and not impressing. Chris Lubanski was the No. 5 overall pick in 2003 but doesn't seem to have a big league future. Mike Stodolka was the fourth overall pick in 2000 as a pitcher. He's now a first baseman, turns 27 next month, hitting .284/.365/.405 this year and mostly regarded as organizational depth at this point.

* Mike Aviles is viewed as something less than a God but more than a man here. This is a far cry from when he was called up and Trey Hillman called him "an extra body," and after an 0-for-3 debut said "the Aviles thing didn't really work out" and then sat him for a week.

I hadn't heard this before, but Omaha manager Mike Jirschele said there was a chance Aviles was going to be promoted last year but he got a stress fracture at the wrong time and missed out, left to wonder if his one chance had passed him by.

Now all of a sudden he's batting .340, though he wasn't called up in time to accumulate enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title even if he kept this up.

I know the fine commenter skipperr did something similar, but going into Monday's games, only Jerry Hairston's .344 average was higher than Mike Aviles' among big league shortstops with at least 150 at bats.

Aviles' .550 was the highest slugging percentage (even better than Hanley Ramirez) and his on-base percentage ranked fifth (though all three percentage stats are behind Royals probable offseason target Rafael Furcal's stunted season).

If you double Aviles' counting stats to give him the equivalent of a full season, he'd rank fourth in homers, first in RBIs, fourth in runs, first in doubles, and, just to show he's already a true Royal, 28th in walks.

There's a theory I've heard that the Royals knew Aviles was a player, but were confident enough that nobody else did, so that's why they left him unprotected for the Rule 5 draft, knowing he'd go unselected.

I don't buy it, you shouldn't either. Aviles' ascension is just one more in a long, long line of proof that baseball is the hardest, goofiest, most maddening, and exciting sport to scout.

* Haven't followed the stadium issue here as close as maybe I should, but word is there's a 50-50 chance the Royals are still here in a few years. They're building a 25,000-or-so seat stadium downtown, the zoo is taking over the Rosenblatt location, and the O-Royals are likely either moving to the suburbs (two new stadiums in Omaha?) or out of the area.

For what it's worth, not much, the O-Royals are averaging about 5,400 fans a game this year, up about 700 (15 percent) from last year at the same time.

* John Bale started and pitched two innings on Monday. The biggest thing keeping him from rejoining KC right now is velocity. According to the stadium radar gun, his fastball was mostly mid-80s, touching 88, though there were several pitches not picked up and you never know how accurate those things are anyway.

He got three quick outs in the first, then lost it a bit in the second: infield single (off Bale's glove), two walks, an RBI sac fly, an RBI single, and a crushed RBI double off the top of the wall. He was supposed to go two full innings, but only lasted 1 2/3. He gave up three hits and five runs, the last two scoring after Bale had left the game.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on August 5, 2008 - 6:44am.
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Submitted by minda33 on August 5, 2008 - 1:40pm.

If I had known you were here, I might have tried to find you and say hi (big fan and all)...heck, I was even upstairs for an inning of last night's game. Will you be there tonight?

Submitted by minda33 on August 5, 2008 - 2:20pm.

the gun at Rosenblatt isn't very accurate. To my memory, it's usually generous - it clocked Neal Musser at 100 mph once or twice last year. So whatever it had Bale throwing at might not have been his actual pitch speed at all.

Submitted by Chyladin on August 5, 2008 - 12:36pm.

I want the compensatory draft picks the team will get after Grudz and Olivio sign somewhere else in free agency this off-season. I have heard some people say that the Royals should have traded them for anything since they are going to be free agents. I prefer giving Dayton Moore the opportunity to draft two more Michael Montgomery types in next years draft.

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 12:53pm.

remember, to get compensation we have to offer them arbitration, which could come back and bite us in the bum if one of those guys can't get more money elsewhere/wants to stick around... Grud is a great player and person, but not sure his aging body will be worth whatever the arbitrators decide, and Olivo is pretty much a dime a dozen catcher (not that buck is BETTER... we just don't need two major league avg. guys, the money could be spent to bolster the bullpen or address the "one more big bat" problem, plus there has been endless discussion over how much better we are with Buck catching, etc...)

Submitted by Otis26 on August 5, 2008 - 1:15pm.

Isn't Olivo signed through '09? I could have sworn he was.

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 1:21pm.

club option for 2.7Mil for 2009, with a 100K buyout.

that actually could end up being less than what Buck might be arbitrated for...

one or the other will not be a royal next season.

Submitted by CMLachky on August 5, 2008 - 9:52am.

I've had the opportunity to check out the Royals from MY local stadium, Principal Park in Des Moines, home of the Iowa Cubs. A couple of my own observations:

-The O-Royals away uni's are absolutely atrocious. I think the numbers are ironed on before the game. Really?? I can get better uniforms from Rob at Nill Bros. in Rosana Square.

-Shealy looks like he's been ready to come up for the past month. I saw him over the ID4 weekend, and dude was raking. I can't imagine he's fallen off since then. Wouldn't his AB's be more beneficial than Ross Gload's??

-We have a guy named Gookie Dawkins on our team...seriously. Is it too soon to start the "Gookiewatch"??

-I'm a little dissappointed that I can't amaze my Cubbie friends by prognosticating the failures of a certain O-Royal anymore. I just had too much fun telling them, "Oh, watch. This guy's going to kill this rally by hitting into a double play," or, "1-2 count? Watch him flail over this slider." The player I was so apt at predicting the shortfalls of: Angel Berroa...it was just too easy...

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 12:33pm.

Gookie Dawkins made his major league debut in '99 and is a career .164 major league hitter. 3 months ago I'd have argued for him to get TPJ's job at SS, but Aviles has since corrected that joke.
Gookie Dawkins is what front office typs refer to as "organizational depth" and having guys like him at our high level minor league teams shows just how shallow the talent pool is.
I'd say Gookiewatch ended in 2003 when in 48 AB's with the Reds he collected all of 6 hits and struck out 21 times.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on August 5, 2008 - 11:10am.

Sec Taylor? I love that park. Great atmosphere, good seats everywhere, fun baseball to watch. Cheap everything. And staying a weekend in DSM doesn't break the bank.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on August 5, 2008 - 8:00am.

My wife lives near there so I follow them at arm's length (just like my wife's parents.) I'm not as convinved as you are about them staying in Omaha. If anything, I guess I could see them signing a small committment to the new stadium, but ultimately, that stadium will be too big, just like Rosenblatt. My first thought was heading to Lincoln as that park would be smaller, but now that Wichita is open again - I wouldn't be surprised if a AAA team for the Royals popped up there.

Would someone please explain to me the obsession with John Bale? The hype for this guy is amazing. Seems the Star loves to follow him so much we get John Bale DL reports when he's rehabbing on his couch at home. His name gets dropped confusingly in discusssions as a guy who could help the Royals rotatation and bullpen problems for next year. I'm just amazed.

I'm still scratching my head as to why Dayton couldn't even garner cash and sandwich picks for dead weight players before the recent deadline.

Best part of O-Royals games - low beer lines and Zesto's.

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 9:28am.

I'm scratching my head at all the people who think you can trade complete garbage players for cash and high potential draft picks (sandwich picks). Nobody wants the known quantity of a bad 34 year old pitcher. And certainly nobody is going to TRADE you a top 100 pick for that same cruddy pitcher.

As far as the trade deadline goes... we won 4 straight right before it, (3 against the division leader) and have won 3 of 4 since NOT making any moves at the deadline (including making Chicago NOT the division leader anymore...) So far so good as far as I am concerned. This team simply needs time to gel.

One more thing. Everyone is freaking out about the White Sox trading for Ken Griffey Jr. HUGE deal, widely publicized, etc.
Now, don't get me wrong, Griffey is a first ballot hall of famer, one of the greatest power and contact hitting left handers of all time (although not so much contact now...) but look at his stats THIS YEAR.
Avg/OBP/SLG/HR/2B/RBI/BB/K's
.245/.355/.432/15/20/53/61/64
now look at Alex Gordon's #'s.
.254/.347/.414/13/26/49/54/101

Other than a dramatic difference in K's... The white sox basically traded for Alex Gordon. Alex Gordon has been hailed by KC fans as being a huge failure/letdown/bust/etc. but he has very comparable numbers to the centerpiece of one of the biggest trades made this season...
I don't get it.

Submitted by mas5588 on August 5, 2008 - 12:56pm.

You can't trade for draft picks, can you?

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 1:13pm.

From USA Today's MLB Draft Primer:
Why aren't draft picks ever traded? Because it is banned. It's MLB's paternal "we-know-what's-best-for-you approach." You can't trade draft position or a drafted player until one full year has passed since he was taken.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on August 5, 2008 - 2:36pm.

For some reason I was thinking you could trade for cash considerations and a team could use their compensation picks (which are handed out like candy from the league office) to suffice the deal. So I'll eat crow there. Good work. My point is this: If a team like the Royals is holding veterans, they run the risk of holding them too long to the point of no value. You have to WANT to offer arbritration for another team to compensate. There are no guarnatees in the offseason. What if Grud's ankle doesn't heal and he retires? And a guy like Mayhay, who is having a phenomenal year, may also be at his highest value for prospects or players with ML experience. Why not go for it now vs. wait until next year? I guess I've seen the Royals take that chance so often and watched it blow up that I'm hoping this front office will be a little more agressive than we've had to this point. I hope all you guys are right. Go Blue!

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on August 5, 2008 - 11:07am.

So I don't get it. You're ok with holding onto Gload, but you want time for the team to gel? Same for Grudzielanek? Does this team gel for next year with or without Gload, Grudzielanek, Mayhay, Peralta, Jason Smith, Shane Costa...

Good point about Griffey, though. Although, it sounded to me like Cincy was trading him as more of a favor to give him a WS chance and the Sux were the only team willing to do a deal. Griffey was supposed to be the next HR king back when he was with Seattle. Boy, did the train come off the tracks after his big contract.

Submitted by AxDxMx on August 5, 2008 - 2:40pm.

He missed about 250 games due to injury when he moved to Cincinatti. That translates to about 60 missed HRs on the conservative side, and those were the end of his prime years. He had hit 40+ HRs in 7 of 8 seasons prior to that, and the one he missed was due to injury as well. I have to imagine if he stayed healthy he would be approaching Aaron and Bonds in a season or 2. Now he won't get there. It's not like he just started sucking. He got old and injury prone, or just really unlucky.

Submitted by dsmith84 on August 5, 2008 - 12:27pm.

I didn't specifically say we needed to gel with Ross Gload, but who knows, if he ends up being a part of this team next year (hopefully in the role he SHOULD be playing as a pinch-hitter/defensive replacement/situational guy) then I think it will serve us well that he got lots of time in multiple positions with this year's club. Would we rather have Jose Vidro?
Also, when I said "gel" I was referring to the "core" (generally consisting of the rotation minus Davies, Soria (and the other three reliable back end guys, which includes Mahay because he's under contract through next year), Gordon, Butler, Aviles, DeJesus, Guillen, cough*Teahen*cough). There are always going to be a few perifery pieces like a Gload or a Joel Peralta that aren't necessarily part of a teams future, but who are just there because nobody has the exact 25 man roster they want/need, and guys like Lubanski aren't proven commodities. At least you know what you'll get with a guy like Gload (although funny that both him and Peralta are having somewhat disappointing seasons compared to their respective careers).

Submitted by labbadabba on August 5, 2008 - 8:54am.

If they DID move from Omaha, I'd still like to see them in the upper-midwest. The Royals' presence in Omaha has extended our fan-base northward and if we put our top affiliate in Kansas it doesn't really extend our influence. I was born in Northeastern South Dakota (prime Twins country) but there were a fair amount of Royals fans up there too just because of the team in Omaha.

Submitted by jtuck123 on August 5, 2008 - 8:43am.

Dude stinks...terribly...you thought Guillen was bad off the field? Anyone pitcher who is disgusted with a start and breaks their hand punching a door truly does have off field issues...
JT

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