The Rays' way, the Royals' way, and Rafael Furcal

In come the Rays, starting with a Ladies' night promotion tonight that's even got my mother-in-law headed to the ballpark.

The temptation with the Rays is to write about being either encouraged or frustrated at how dramatically they've turned it around.

The Rays are seven wins short of last year's total, and 11 shy of the club record. And it's July 24.

And they've done it almost entirely without major free agent purchases. These are draft picks (Upton, Crawford, Longoria) or trades (Kazmir, Navarro, Jackson) or smaller free agent signings (Iwamura, Percival).

There have been no $55 million buys of Gil Meche, or $12-million-a-year for Jose Guillen, but they also had a decade of drafting at the very, very top...and that's bound to pay off eventually.

But the Rays' plan is not exactly the Royals' plan. The Royals want to draft as well as possible, obviously, but they've also shown a pattern of identifying one or more of the best free agents who match up with the team's needs and pursuing them.

And when they pursue someone, they've shown a pattern of either signing the player or having a competitive-to-richest offer turned down.

With that in mind, the Royals need a leadoff hitter. This we can all agree on. If we're seeing the real David DeJesus, he has more value hitting down in he order a little bit.

And the Royals need a shortstop. This we can also agree on. If we're seeing the real Mike Aviles, he's probably a better fit at second base, where his bat still plays but his defense is less of an issue.

The Guillen signing, combined with the offers to Andruw Jones and Torii Hunter, show that Dayton Moore's focus is shifting a bit to address the lineup. He'll always care about starting pitching first, starting pitching second, and starting pitching third, but he's also well-aware that the biggest weakness is a lineup that's second-to-last in the American League in runs and on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging percentage.

And with the front office's tilt toward Atlanta connections, it's only natural to point out that Rafael Furcal is a free agent after this season.

Furcal was .366/.448/.597 with 34 runs in 32 games before going down in May with back pain. He started a minor league rehab assignment about four weeks ago, but that lasted just one game before the pain came back. He had surgery and is expected to be out at least until September. He also missed the last two weeks of the 2007 season with a sore back.

Now, I don't have to point out that back problems have sidelined big-money Royals players before, but how about this lineup, without any other moves:

Furcal, SS
Aviles, 2B
DeJesus, CF
Guillen, LF
Gordon, 3B
Butler, DH
Teahen, RF
Buck, C
Gload/Shealy*, 1B

* Shealy, by the way, is hitting .294/.378/.505 with 15 homers and 42 RBIs in 75 games with Omaha this year.

Not a bad lineup, right? Furcal is finishing a three-year, $39 million contract and turns 31 in October.

If healthy, and even approaching what he was at the beginning of this season, he'd be worth at least that kind of deal again.

Edgar Renteria, also with an Atlanta connection but struggling everytime he's played in the American League, will probably also be available, as will Orlando Cabrera, Adam Everett and Cesar Izturis if you're looking for cheaper options.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on July 24, 2008 - 7:05am.
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Submitted by Old Man Duggan on July 29, 2008 - 9:54pm.

A certain Hawaiian sitting down in Double-A who's murdering the ball and getting on base. I can't imagine he doesn't get a chance late this summer. He's simply hitting too well not to.

Old Man Duggan: The Inconsiderate Prick

Submitted by ral121 on July 25, 2008 - 8:52am.

I think an interesting player the royals should look into is Mark Teixeira, another Atlanta connection. I know there are several interested teams in Teixeira as the trade deadline is approaching, but I feel like none of the teams are really a good fit for him. He could answer a lot of questions at 1B long term if the royals were willing to give him a long-term deal at the end of the season. I think its time for the club to stop banking on potential at that position (i.e. Butler, gload, shealey,) and go with a guy they know can hit 40hrs and drive in 120 RbI's. This could be the big bat the club has looked for the last two season.

Submitted by crawford on July 25, 2008 - 8:44am.

Shealy's OPS in AAA is over 900 this year. Oi, i have a feeling the kid is going to go the path of Justin Huber. Gosh darnit, gid rid of the Gloader.

Submitted by skipperr on July 24, 2008 - 8:14pm.

What is it about Aviles defense that is always mentioned? The only thing that is ever mentioned about Pena is his defense, but if you look at their minor league numbers, they are very similar, and Aviles has shown that he can hit at every level, including the majors. If you look at their defensive statistics in the majors, Aviles seems to compare well. Aviles has a zone rating of .823 and Pena .840 (Derek Jeter .838). Aviles' range factor is 4.30 and Pena 3.78 (Jeter is 4.21 and Erick Aybar and Orlando Cabrera are at 4.79). I can understand if they could get someone like Furcal, but, if not, perhaps they could use Aviles and get a run producer at another position. I thought the main reason that Avile was moved to 2nd was because they thought that Pena would be able to hit enough.

skipperr

Submitted by stephanzero on July 24, 2008 - 2:45pm.

it seems as though the problem with the royals isn't the lack of talent, it is the lack of effort, i mean if you watched any of the games against detroit, you could tell that the only 3 guys who wanted to play out there were Aviles, DeJesus and Grudzielanek. The rest of those guys were in a daze it seemed, that's how it looked anyway.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 24, 2008 - 10:28am.

Sam, have you given up on this season already??! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

A wise man (my doctor) once told me that back problems last your whole life. You can never get rid of them, unless you have surgery, and surgery could actually make it worse. I'd stay as far away from any player with a back issue as possible. One tweak = DL. That being said, I think the club will have to make a decision as to what order of priority they want: Pitching, Hitting, Defense. Personally, I'd take it in that order right there. Very good teams have very average defense in the middle infield. They may not have range, but they make the plays that should be made. Fearless hitting should overcome those few balls that squeek through. Problem is, the Royals do not have fearless hitting.

Agree with BGramm - that lineup is essentially a carbon copy to this year.

I'd rather have DeJesus at #2 and Aviles at #7. That is, of course, if the Royals could get a true leadoff with speed to steal bases.

Here's a guy I think the Royals should try to pry away:

Micah Hoffpauir - Middle of the lineup potential, true 1B. Lefty bat that could protect Guillen. He's stuck behind a veteran. What would the Cubs want? They need bullpen help. Package Mayhay and couple of struggling prospects who need a fresh start. We might have a few. Hmm...

Submitted by labbadabba on July 24, 2008 - 10:51am.

"Sam, have you given up on this season already??! Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?"

Was that humor?

"The only thing we have to fear, is...a bad history teacher"

Interesting comment of Hoffpauir tho - sounds like Shealy from a couple years ago.

Submitted by jonfmorse on July 24, 2008 - 3:04pm.

Wow, you mean Paul McCartney was in a band BEFORE Wings?!?!

Submitted by dbutler_05 on July 24, 2008 - 11:07am.

I believe that is a well played "Animal House" reference...

Submitted by jcblue42 on July 24, 2008 - 12:00pm.

"May I dance with your date?"

In my top 5 of all time.

'Blazing Saddles'
'Stripes'
'Caddy Shack'
'Animal House'
'Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid' or 'Cool Hand Luke'

Beats trying to determine the future Royals lineup at this time.

Hillarious!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Submitted by SconieRoyal on July 24, 2008 - 8:18am.

about Furcal is the injury problems the last few years. I'm all for getting him, but the problem is what happens when he plays 50 games a year and the deal blows up in our face and (to steal from Petro) the money spigot stops. Spending a lot more money on FA's has been nice for now, but in the long run I think they need to spend as much money as possible on the draft and scouting.

Submitted by BGramm69 on July 24, 2008 - 8:12am.

Not because you picked the wrong people, Sam, but because none of those people are particularly very good.

Aviles is unproven. DeJesus is not a #3 hitter. Guillen is a 5 or 6. Gordon and Butler are busts (there, I said it), Teahen is a MAJOR bust, Buck is awful, and Shealy will never hit.

I hate saying these things, but they are facts. The absolute best lineup the Royals can put together....is still one of the worst lineups in the major leagues. It's not by accident that we have an identical record after 102 games this year: It's the same team. Same losers, doing what losers do...lose.

Our starting pitching is below league average, our hitting is WAY below league average. This is not a good team, and the future doesn't hold much promise for change.

I'm as frustrated now as I've ever been in my 25 years held hostage as a Royals fan.

Submitted by lazarusl on July 24, 2008 - 6:55pm.

...on so many levels.
It's way, way too early to call Gordon & Butler busts. Disappointing? Sure, but give me a break, they still have time to develop.
DeJesus has definitely performed at a high enough level to bat third - but without a consistent table setter leading-off, what's the point?
As for Wednesday's game, yeah, they looked terrible, but whoever accused Trey of making excuses is dead wrong - in fact, he made the same point, that it was a quick turnaround for Detroit too, but they were ready to play. He was p-o'd, and called out his team.
They've hit a rough stretch, but I believe this team has one more good run in them to get the record back to respectability.
tracey

Mike Aviles, Royals MVP, 2008

Submitted by rebmoti on July 29, 2008 - 3:28pm.

I agree that it's too early to call Butler and Gordon busts, although 2 years in a row of bad production from Gordon is scary. But DeJesus is no #3 hitter, and if neither Butler nor Gordon can hit #3, then they are busts.

Submitted by jtwibell on July 24, 2008 - 10:23pm.

and I hope that you are right about us turning it around. I would love nothing more than having us contend for the division (not this year, unless something crazy happens)...

but I have to politely disagree with you about DeJesus as a legitimate three hole hitter. Take a look at other 3-hole guys across the MLB. DeJesus is not the same caliber of hitter as Pujols, Hamiliton, Utley, Holliday, or Beltran. DeJesus is a solid MLB hitter, but is not a true 3 hole hitter. And that is exactly my point -- is that there simply isn't enough talent, and hasn't been for a number of years now, for us to have a true 3 hole hitter. I think our perception of the Royals has been skewed over the years because we have been so bad, and maybe this is part of the reason why we were so quick to crown Butler and Gordon as studs and can't miss future all-stars because we saw potential in them. But neither one have proven anything yet in the bigs, and to their credit, they have had to play with a lot of unfair pressure.

Tonight's game, however, was certainly a step in the right direction. Solid pitching from Meche, some timely hitting, and Soria was able to close it out

Submitted by CMLachky on July 24, 2008 - 12:01pm.

BGramm: I can only assume that you are a very well-respected, thoughtful and intelligent reader, if only for the fact that you add the number 69 after your name.

BUT...you are exactly right. All of the screaming from 1998-2004 centered around spending the money necessary to land big money Free Agents. Fat lot of good that's doing us right now. There are meteoric holes in our lineup, but a 31 year old with back problems is not the answer. Plus, all I hear from the idiots on BBTN is how much of a "gamer" he is, and how much the Dodgers are going to benefit when he comes back, which makes me think of him as a this-guy-is-a-clubhouse-guy-so-we're-going-to-overlook-the-fact-that-he-has-a-career-OPS-plus-of-96-and-drastically-overpay-him-for-him-to-put-up-below-league-average-numbers-for-us type of player.

The key is not putting up money for Free Agents, it's putting up money to keep the talent you have. Unfortunately for The Royals, there's not a lot of that on this team.

Submitted by JMGesling on July 24, 2008 - 8:43am.

I don't believe our team is as bad as you think BGramm.

DeJesus is a 3 hitter...compare his stats to other 3 hitters...and he's been doing it in leadoff.

Guillen is a 4 hitter...it's just that he has had no protection in the lineup.

Teahen has been disappointing...and needs to show something quick.

Butler and Gordon...not producing but THEY ARE YOUNG. I don't care how well you've played in the minors. It takes time and experience to get things going. Your body keeps growing and changing, and the competition stays high. I refuse to call Gordon and Billy a bust yet.

Pitching has been very inconsistent. Again...got some youngsters that need more experience to get that consistent arm slot and delivery.

Shealy can hit...and did it for the Royals for a brief time...and could again, if he ever gets called up.

Buck is a catcher...catchers typically don't hit for much power or average. He's there to call the game and help pitchers. Someone pull up wins/losses when he catches vs. Olivo.

Not to say you are wrong BGramm...You have good points and are entitled to your opinion. But I have watched these Royals for a while now (my whole life) and I see good changes. We'll get there.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 24, 2008 - 10:43am.

Outside of this year's winner of the "Token Royals Player Who Far Out-Performs Expectations" in DeJesus, where am I missing the good changes you mentioned?

Aviles was luck, not change. If it wasn't for Callaspo getting hammered one night, we're still watching Pena flash his glove, spend off-days in the bullpen and struggle to stay above .100.

Submitted by PRL on July 24, 2008 - 9:18am.

You know, the apologists can keep making excuses for Gordon and Butler all they want, but the facts are facts. They aren't performing to expectations. Plain and simple.

Ryan Braun is young. Evan Longoria is young. Now you say, "Well, not everyone can be like Braun and Longoria..." Of course not, that's not what I'm saying. We're not talking about everyone, we're talking about Gordon and Butler. These are the two best hitting prospects the Royals have. They are IT. Beyond them, the cupboard is virtually bare (unless you want to go down to A ball).
Gordon and Butler were supposed to be like Braun and Longoria. They were touted as, if not saviors...well, then as close as the Royals could come to that. I listen to Ryan and Split, I read the blogs, Star articles, and they (almost) all talk about how Butler is supposed to be an incredible hitter. This usually comes right before I see him weakly ground out. Gordon is supposed to come around and explode at the plate any day now...maybe right after this at bat when he whiffs terribly (AGAIN) against a low-level left-hander.

The statistical analysis is better left for someone like Rany, who has already done a great analysis of players who had a similar track as Gordon's first two years, but after two years of major league service time, I think that true stars perform better than Gordon and Butler have. They were supposed to be the young, stud 3/4 hitters this team DESPERATELY needed to compete. I just don't think that's ever going to happen. If it was going to happen, we would have at least seen flashes by now.

Submitted by SconieRoyal on July 24, 2008 - 9:40am.

Butler and Gordon, they definetly need a "wow" game for me. Like "wow that's why we drafted these guys."

I remember one specifically from Gordon last year in Minnesota, when he put two in the upperdeck (it might have been one in the upper and one not quite in the upper).

I'm not saying it's gonna take a mutli-homer performance, just SOMETHING to make me see it.

I'm with Poz on Teahan, put him at leadoff and tell him not to be concerned with homeruns, just figure out how to get on base and run like hell.

Submitted by jtwibell on July 24, 2008 - 10:20am.

Let's face it -- this team isn't making strides; in fact, it could be regressing. And maybe it will continue to get worse before they turn the corner -- I certainly hope not, because this season already has me pulling out my hair.

Did anyone else read the sports page this morning? The quote from Hillman about his team not having the effort or energy because they had a late night Tuesday (actually he wasn't sure if it was lack of energy or effort)? The Tigers didn't seem to have any problem getting up for yesterday's butt kicking. Are kidding me, Trey? Do you know what your job is? To mold and gel a team, motivate them, encourage them, MAKE THEM BECOME A TEAM who will fight, scrap and claw every game???

I know Hillman has a severe lack of talent on this team and he is behind the eight ball, but there should be no excuse for lack of energy or effort. That is a disgrace, not only to the team, but himself as well.

Another huge void in this team is their lack of discipline at the plate. Barnett always talks about this "approach" at the plate -- what the hell is he talking about?? I've seen Little League teams with better plate discipline -- Galaraga had 80 some pitches through 7 innings. That is ridiculous. I know he was pitching well, but c'mon -- find a way to get on base. I know hitting coaches fall on the sword quite a bit and take the blame for a team's poor hitting, but Barnett shouldn't have a job right now. The Royals are currently second to LAST in the MAJORS in OBP (.314), only in front of the lowly Mariners. But then again, maybe it goes back to the lack of talent on this team and that the majority of our players wouldn't even be starting on any other major league team with the exception of Guillen, Grud, and Dejesus.

And whoever said Dejesus is a three hole hitter, is out of their minds. Maybe on this team he is, but therein lies the problem. We have no other choice but to put him there. That's how bad we are. He should be either a leadoff man (not really a good spot for him) but more likely in the 2 spot.

Here's to 2013 and maybe making a run at the playoffs

Submitted by jrh6k2 on July 24, 2008 - 6:32pm.

I think there is a real argument that we are regressing in that (1) we are on pace to have almost the same number of wins this year as last - in other words just standing still, and (2) our big prospects are not living up to expectations. Every day we don’t get better is a failure. It sucks.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 24, 2008 - 10:44am.

2010! 2010! 2010!

Beautiful Post!

I'm still keeping my promise not to get worked up until after the Royals do something/do nothing before the trade deadline.

Submitted by labbadabba on July 24, 2008 - 10:02am.

Both of these guys are having trouble getting deep into counts. Both of these guys are having trouble identifying the strike-zone. From what I've read they've never had those issues. Butler's knowledge of the strike-zone was uncanny. Gordon could hit for average and power.

What changed? They are talented hitters who do not have the coaching resources at the top level to guide them through the transition to being big league hitters.

Anyone remember when Barnett eliminated Buck's leg kick last year? He plummeted shortly after and we spent the rest of the summer trying to decide who was the better hitter; LaRue or Buck.

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