Why the Ray Durham trade is important to Royals fans

Ten more days of the non-waiver trade deadline, and the price on the Royals' most tradeable player has been roughly set.

The Brewers got Ray Durham for two eh prospects. Durham, besides being two years younger, is a lot like Mark Grudzielanek in many ways: same position, set for free agency after this season, no long-term future with the club, but still getting it done for the moment.

The Brewers sent Steve Hammond and Darren Ford to the Giants, and it's hard to see either guy making a huge impact. Hammond, 26, is 0-4 with a 7.41 ERA in four starts at Class AAA this year (though 20 Ks in 17 IP).

Ford, 22, is a right-handed hitting outfielder who's at .230/.322/.303 in 91 games at High-A Brevard County (though 48 steals in 59 attempts). Ford's Baseball Prospectus PECOTA comparables include Mike Cameron, which is terrific, but also include 19 other players you've probably never heard of, which is not as terrific.

Hammond's PECOTA comparables are even less impressive, led by Paul Ahyat and Rich Pratt, neither of which ever pitched in the majors.

In addition to receiving blah talent, the Giants get to cover half of the $3 million remaining on Durham's contract this year.

So, to review: for a player hitting .293 with a .385 on-base percentage, a good clubhouse reputation, and a switch-hitter, the Giants get two mediocre prospects and still have to pay $1.5 million.

Keep this in mind when you think about what the Royals could get for Grud, a player hitting .303 with a .353 on-base percentage, a good clubhouse reputation, and making $4 million this year.

This is one of the most interesting times of year to be a fan, the trade deadline, thinking about all the possibilities. One of the problems is that fans often overrate (sometimes underrate) the value of players on their favorite team.

The best Royals example of this that comes to mind is last year, when the consensus among fans seemed to be the Royals didn't get enough for Octavio Dotel.

Well, they tried to get Franklin Gutierrez for Dotel. The Indians wouldn't do it, and that should tell you something, considering that Joe Borowski was their closer.

The Royals ended up with Kyle Davies, who might actually end up more valuable considering he's currently in the rotation and Gutierrez is hitting .220.

It feels like the Royals might end up not doing anything at the deadline. A contender would like Ron Mahay, but his value is increased to the Royals because he's under contract next year.

Miguel Olivo would be attractive somewhere, but the Royals don't have the catching depth to cover themselves.

David DeJesus would be a good fit for a lot of teams. He can play all three OF spots, hit anywhere in the lineup, and he's playing under a club-friendly contract. But would you really want to trade the guy when he finally looks like he's figuring it out? It's intriguing, but don't bet on it.

Another thing that hurts the chances of the Royals making a deal is the increased value all teams hold now of young players, prospects or pre-arbitration big leaguers.

As the Durham deal shows, teams aren't always willing to give up much of value in trades, even for a proven big league commodity like a solid veteran 2B.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on July 21, 2008 - 6:55am.
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Submitted by Nate Greene on July 22, 2008 - 11:02am.

I am so not one to jump on a "cut 'em" bandwagon when a player goes through a slump. All the brouhaha over Guillen early in the season made a lot of fans look like fools in the long run.

That being said, I absolutely can't figure out what the heck Jimmy Gobble is still doing on a major league roster. I know he seemed to emerge as a reasonably good situational lefty last year, but right now he can't get anybody out, anytime. Even if you take out last night's game where they simply made him take a shelling so-as not to burn the bullpen during a beating, his stats are still terrible and to the naked eye he just looks like he's going to creamed every time he throws a pitch. He doesn't seem to be in a slump. He seems to be done. Am I wrong here? Why is this guy still around?

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 21, 2008 - 9:56pm.

Tony Pena, Jr. pitched the 9th inning and struck out Pudge Rodriguez looking.

(I'm going to get up in the morning and check this blog to make sure I'm not writing this in my sleep.)

Submitted by jtuck123 on July 22, 2008 - 7:22am.

I stopped watching the game after the comical 8th inning...it was truly funny...Anyway, how fast was TPJ pitching? Just fastball/change?
JT

Submitted by JMGesling on July 22, 2008 - 7:24am.

It showed up one or twice at 91 mph on a fastball, and he showed a good curveball. Might we have stumbled upon something?

Submitted by jtwibell on July 22, 2008 - 7:44am.

Yeah why not? Pena probably doesn't have a future as a position player, so why not roll the dice. Low 90s fastball with serious movement and a decent curve? He could be a relief pitcher with some work in the pen. A few things to take away from last night:

-- This team is a long way away from contending. Whoever said 2010 is crazy. More like 2013. DM will have to make some incredible trades to turn this team into a contender because there is no one in the farm system, outside of a few pitchers (Rosa and Pimentel) and not a whole lot of talent on the field as we speak.

--Jimmy Gobble has to go. Somewhere. Anywhere, but here

--Hopefully we won't have to see another game like that for a long time

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 22, 2008 - 9:45am.

it really wasn't a dream...

Submitted by jcblue42 on July 21, 2008 - 12:55pm.

My point was that I don't remember the details of the trades, I was upset when they traded those two, and I forgot about Beltran, but that it didn't seem like the organization cared about the future. Here it is years later and we are just now getting closer. But, we have a different GM, a different Manager, and different attitude.

I don't remember what I did this morning, much less a baseball trade from 10 years ago.

Bleed Blue....jcblue42

Submitted by jcblue42 on July 21, 2008 - 9:40am.

Just remember what happened when we traded Jermaine Dye & Johnny Damon, I don't remember the details, some good and some not so good, but at that point the fans were thinking "What are you doing for the future?". Anyway, ownership seems committed now to make the team better, back then I don't think they were thinking ahead.

DeJesus needs to stay, he isn't the best or the fastest, but he is a leader in the clubhouse and on the field. He enjoys the game and plays hard all of the time. 2010 will be an exciting year, but if we trade Grud or Grienke or Butler or DeJesus for 'prospects', 2010 becomes 2013.

Five Guys note: I had the opportunity to visit the Lee's Summit 5 Guys on Saturday. IMHO I prefer In 'n Out Burger, I know, they aren't here and won't come here. 5 guys was a little pricey for a quick lunch, but I'll go back The fries were more than enough for one person

Bleed Blue....jcblue42

Submitted by jcblue42 on July 21, 2008 - 1:13pm.

He was a Royal in 2004, only 4 seasons ago!!!! Poz had a good article that I just read from Saturday's paper. Where would we be if we would have invested $11M 4 years ago? Sweeney was making $11M, Beltran could have made $11M. Now we have Meche at $11M and Guillen at $13M. The times have changed and the purse strings are a little looser now, but think about how much further ahead we could be.

I know, we couldn't afford Dye, Damon and Beltran, but if we would've kept just one of these guys we wouldn't need to still look for a power hitting corner outfielder. (except Damon is now on the down side).

Just sayin'

Bleed Blue....jcblue42

Submitted by graypoopon on July 21, 2008 - 10:39am.

"Just remember what happened ... I don't remember..."

Submitted by jtuck123 on July 21, 2008 - 10:44am.

Isn't it Grey Poupon? I've always wondered about that mustard...why the heck would they name it that? It's kind of a turn off for me...
JT

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 21, 2008 - 8:37am.

Good points Sam. I think this is going to be a very important 2nd half of the season. I think the small trades will not do much for the Royals. I think they will need to be involved in a multi-player / multi-team deal or some sort of package (2 for 1) to get good value. But bottom line, for this franchise to get BETTER by 2010, Moore will have to make a splash. It will be one that will sting a little at first, but it has to be done. Its coming. I can feel it.

Either that or its going to be fun watching the Royals spend about $50MM this off-season! 2010 BABY!

Submitted by jtwibell on July 21, 2008 - 9:40am.

however, I think if a reasonable trade for Grud is offered (and we will never be quite sure if it is, unless of course a deal is accepted) the Royals will have to take it. Grud is 38 and his body isn't exactly holding up -- not that I would expect it to at that age. I love Grud, but I think the Royals need to take a look into the future to see who is a possibility at 2nd. Callaspo is intriguing, but has some character problems. Love his bat, but does he have what it takes to play everyday? Aviles is a possibility, but I don't see DM or Hillman moving him to 2nd unless they land a stud SS in the near future. German could certainly be a stop gap player at 2nd for a while and might be the long term possibility...

So either you roll the dice and try to sign Grud for another year after this season, assuming he wants to come back to play for the Royals, or you try to trade him now for some average prospects with upside with the hope that they pan out in the near future. A gamble for sure, but IMHO, DM and the Royals need to stockpile as much talent as possible if they want to become a successful franchise in the years to come. DM has been great so far with pitching -- now is time to start finding some talent with the bats and defense... (and much easier said than done, I know.)

Submitted by JMGesling on July 21, 2008 - 7:19am.

there's not much we can do right now to really change things for the better. Unless another team presents a great offer, then let's focus on improving the on-field play, rather than lineup. We have some good components...though they need more seasoning.

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