Billy Butler's value: Royals > other teams

One of the things I like about this blog is hearing the opinions of Royals fans. The conversations on here, almost without exception, have been civil and intelligent. Thanks for that.

That said, I gotta admit surprise about what looks like a minor movement to trade Billy Butler.

Butler has his weaknesses, we all know that. He's still primarily "just" a DH (though when he's played in the field, he's yet to really kill the Royals), he's had some Emil moments on the bases, and, this year, hasn't been getting many extra base hits.

Now, perhaps the most compelling reason not to trade Butler is that the other teams have scouts, too, and those scouts see all these same issues and will adjust their teams' offers accordingly.

Most midseason trades are done for one team to get immediate help, and it's tough to see a contender (especially in the NL) viewing Butler as immediate help.

The other part of this the sentiment seems to be bordering on giving up on a guy who very recently was considered a cornerstone.

Butler won two batting titles in three full minor league seasons (finished second the other time) and was widely considered a better hitting prospect than Alex Gordon.

Butler's played in 148 big league games, and speaking of Gordon, here are both players' stats through their first 148 games:

Butler: .284 avg, .344 obp, .408 slg, 752 ops, 70 RBIs

Gordon: .248 avg, .315 obp, .413 slg, 728 ops, 59 RBIs

If you believe at all in scouting, Butler's power will come. Scouts mostly agree he could develop into a 25-homer, 40-doubles guy, with a chance to win a batting title.

If you believe at all in track record, his power will come. He slugged .561 in 1,532 minor league at bats, including about .550 in 304 at bats in Omaha.

The Royals aren't in a position where they can give up on a prospect who doesn't immediately become Albert Pujols.

They're not all Joakim Soria, getting to the big leagues and immediately dominating.

Butler has, right now, about one full season's worth of big league at bats with a 97 OPS+ (Gordon's is 94 in his career and 106 this year and he's hitting third). Butler isn't setting the league on fire, but he's also 22 years old.

Butler is certainly not untouchable, the Royals aren't in a place where anyone can be truly untouchable.

Here are three reasons for not trading Butler:

1. His trade value is likely diminished after just being sent down to Omaha, and for the lack of extra-base hits.

2. The guy didn't just forget to hit in the last year.

3. The Royals don't have much offense in their minor league system.

3. The Royals rank second-to-last in the American League in runs, ahead of only the Richie Sexson Mariners, and it doesn't make sense for a team desperate for offense to trade a guy who just one year ago was considered one of the best hitting prospects in baseball.

That sentence was way too long. This blog needs a copy editor.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on July 3, 2008 - 7:26am.
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Submitted by asta dog on July 5, 2008 - 8:37am.

I have short of 50 years of following baseball, so I'm still a punk at this.

I just guess that Billy Ray Bob, (BUBBA) Butler will not make it into the HOF on the first ballot. He will spill the milk and leave cookie crumbs that will upset the sportswriters to no end.

Should be a lock on the second ballot though.

Submitted by asta dog on July 5, 2008 - 8:29am.

This talk of moving Grudz is just ridiculous. He is the third ranked 2B in all of MLB. Wouldn't know it from the TV announcers, but guy has a gold glove and hits over .300.

What is wrong with you folks? There's a superstar in Kansas City and you don't even know it!! Just proves that this is a small market town. How many votes for the ALL-STAR team for GRUDZ.

You make me sick.

Submitted by HouseThatTeahenBuilt on July 7, 2008 - 6:49am.

if you SERIOUSLY think Grudz is a superstar then you so vastly misunderstand the term superstar you are beyond all levels of help. Grudz is a nice piece, but one the Royals should trade away for any kind of prospect / young player they can (along with Mayhay, Gload, German, DeJesus, et al)

Submitted by asta dog on July 5, 2008 - 8:21am.

Are you nuts????

Why would you trade the next George Brett?

To be real here,,,,, Butler is better than Brett was at this stage of his career.

Dayton doesnt make the typical Royals move,,,, stick with the plan Mr Moore.

Submitted by JGep on July 4, 2008 - 2:25pm.

Anyone that wants the Royals to even consider trading Butler, doesn't truly understand baseball at all, and it's history. Here is something I think too many people miss. Tony Pena Jr. will NEVER be a good hitter in the majors, for one really good reason. He gets himself out. Butler is 22, and still learning. But, I have NEVER seen such a young Royal with such an incredible understanding of the strike zone. Remember Jack Clark? The Slugger that was the power in the RedBird attack for so many years, after S.F. foolishly let him get away? What Clark did, was make YOU get him out, because he refused to get himself out. Jack had holes in his swing, and he knew it. But, he made you, the pitcher exploit them, by virtue of his extreme patience. Butler has that Jack Clark mentality, in that he refuses to swing at pitchers pitches, unless he has 2 strikes, and even then, if he knows it is borderline, and may be called a ball, he will take the pitch. That is VERY smart, because to protect the plate on a borderline pitch, means only a weak ground ball that is a double play ball, if there is a force condition. In other words, Billy already shows a very advanced intelligence to hitting. People, this guy is going to break out late this season, and next year, is going to go on a tear. I am not going to say he will ever be as good a hitter as Brett, and he doesn't have Brett's speed. But, he does have Brett's attitude, and one heck of a sweet swing and understanding of the strike zone. What I will say is this. He *WILL* be one of the best hitters the Royals have ever had, AND, I will say that I would not put it past him to surpass George in many offensive categories.
This is a young team that is building. Really, we don't have any old guys that are tearing the place up, except Grud. And, frankly, Grud is way too important to the development of these kids to trade. And, I can see Grud making an excellent coach once his playing days are done. So, fact of the matter is, sit tight, and let the talent you already have develop. Dayton Moore has done a PHENOMINAL job of building a strong, young, nucleus for the the long term competitiveness of the Royals. The worst mistake he could make is to give up on any of the young players now.
John G.

Submitted by lancef on July 4, 2008 - 8:24am.

I remember the last time the american league central had a overweight 21 year old DH come up that didnt seem to have enough power... in his first 3 years he hit 10 homeruns, the 3 years following that he hit 10, 18, and 20 homeruns respectively so his team gave up on him, justifying it by a DH who can not really play defense is not worth it unless he has a lot of power and clearly this now 26 year old would never have any power. Yes, for all you smart fans out there I am talking about some guy named David Ortiz!!!!!! He has been pretty good the last few years hasn't he? Lay off Billy, he is just young. Most guys that dominate at a young age went to college, ala Albert Pujos. I am not saying Billy will be David Ortiz, but I am not going to say that he wont be either. He is still a cornerstone for the royals. I am sure I will get some angry replys but thats okay, I will take my chances with Billy.

Submitted by bigsteveno on July 4, 2008 - 6:08am.

When they let him play first base, he did fine. If Gload hadn't started hitting a little while Butler was in Omaha, Butler would be back at first.

I admit he can't run worth a damn, but that's the way he's built. Not everyone can be a Gathright. Butler's gotten doubles that would have been triples for others.

He's a big kid, and he's fun to watch. I hope they keep him.

Submitted by Goobie on July 3, 2008 - 12:36pm.

To all of you who are saying "The Royals knew he didn't have defensive value but still drafted him -- they should have known better!" Well, they did that in 1999 by passing on a local talent that everybody knew could hit but didn't play a position. That seemed to work out well for the Cardinals in Albert Pujols. Point is, it doesn't matter how bad somebody is defensively -- if they are an impact bat, they'll find a place on the field. Either that or we could have an entire team of Rey Sanchez. You choose.

Submitted by collinincalifornia on July 3, 2008 - 11:23am.

During last nights game, the O's broadcast team relayed a conversation they had with both the O's and Royals hitting coaches: The O's hitting coach said it takes 1500 Major League PAs (plate appearances) to know what you have in a hitter... Barnett said it takes 2000 PAs. So our hitting coach thinks it takes anywhere from 3 to 4 full big league seasons to tell what kind of hitter you have. Obviously Butler is right around ONE full season.

I think the frustration and the trade talks are coming b/c he's not living up to potential yet. Let's see how many Royals fans want to trade Butler in 2 more years.

Submitted by neuty on July 3, 2008 - 10:48am.

This is a bad one, and I apologize in advance for bringing it up. But...does BB remind anyone else of Grimace (aka Ken Harvey)? I mean, they were both similarly inept in the field and are both as slow as Mike LeVallier. Worst of all is the trend they're setting as 300 pound singles hitters. Nobody in baseball needs a 300lb singles hitter. NOBODY.

Please, BB, get your fat ass in shape, and show up to Spring Training ready to play. Talent gets you to the majors, but talent + effort + dedication *keep* you in the majors. Take a look in the mirror and ask if you've given everything it takes to stay in the majors. Or take a look to Community America Ballpark and see if that's where you want to end up.

Submitted by jonfmorse on July 3, 2008 - 10:58am.

Billy can take a walk. Harvey couldn't.

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 3, 2008 - 12:17pm.

I remember watching those games when Harvey would get hits on 0-2 counts, and Splitorff would always be amazed and be like "how many of this guys' hits come on 0-2 counts!?!" and act like Harvey had this great knack for shortening up and making solid contact, which he was decent at, but the main reason Harvey got hits on 0-2 counts is that...... he swung at the first two pitches no matter what they were. Not as bad as Berroa's "throw it to the left hand batters box when I have two strikes and I'll take a hack at it", but still not a good habit to be in.

Submitted by coachb on July 3, 2008 - 9:47am.

Billy Butler should not be traded nor should any of our young core. We are not "really" in the playoff race and we should not expect to be this year either. We are starting to form a solid young nucleus that hopefully will be very productive in the future. The problem with any of the trades this month is that we will get a couple of minor leaguers that MIGHT make it to Kansas City in the next four or five years. Why send Butler, Grienke, etc to anyone when they are that young and have produced for us for some no names that we would get in return? I love Grudzy but he is a piece to look at trading.

As far as Moustakas moving to a new position, who cares! He is very young and we selected a kid who could really be a power hitter for us in the future. I would guess that a fourth of MLB position players were drafted at a different position than they are playing now. Dayton will find us a deal that makes us better if there is one out there.
Royals Fan Forever

Submitted by Royalbaseman on July 3, 2008 - 8:53am.

I guess back in 2006 the Royals offered Butler for Yuniesky Betancourt and was turned down; even back when Butler was tearing up AA and everyone thought he was going to be a hitting superstar the Royals were willing to deal him; granted it was for a position of need but I think that shows they have always been worried about his lack of a postion.

Submitted by dfrench23 on July 4, 2008 - 10:50am.

If it was before June of '06 it was a Baird move...sounds about right.

Submitted by jayhawkowensjunior on July 3, 2008 - 8:52am.

1. Everything Sam said.
2. He's been productive in his short time in the majors, relative to the team.
3. He's 22. He's 4-5 years away from his statistical peak, and his minor/major numbers aren't anything atypical--he's trending big.
4. The Royals are in no hurry. They're not going to win this year.
5. The Royals HAVE to build a team by "waiting" for prospects to develop.
6. Also, every other team in the majors with (2-3) exceptions have to build teams this way. You can't build teams through free agency anymore. We got Guillen, who was arguably the best of the free agent crop, and ended up giving 8 figures to a somewhat above average corner outfielder. (I'm not knocking Guillen--it's nice actually having some power in the middle of the lineup, and his hot streaks are something to behold. But he's got an OPS+ of 104, and he's hitting slightly less well than he did last year. And he's aging.)
7. He's twenty-freaking-two.
8. How on earth are we going to get value for this guy? You trade Butler, you're getting crummy prospects or overpriced underperforming veterans.
9. Who's going to play first? Gload? Teahen (meaning Gathright plays every day?) You'd seriously rather have Gload or Gathright playing over Butler? Neither of them can hit.
9. I...I...I can't believe this is seriously discussed.

I guess it's a moot point, because this is never, in a million years, going to happen. But I'm all worked up.

(By the way, Moustakas was never going to be our "shortstop of the future". Everyone there was a 95% chance he wouldn't pan out there, but they gave him a shot just to see. He's most likely to end up as a left fielder, but since he's 2-3 years off, what position he'll play is not a terribly crucial issue just now.)

Sigh. I'm done. Thank you for letting me work out some anxieties.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 3, 2008 - 10:54am.

If we keep Butler and he doesn't pan out, we can always fill in with Moustakas in a couple of years. And I forgot all about who would be able to handle Butler's fielding duties IF he were to be dealt.

For the Royals to be good in years 2010-20whenever like we are being led to believe, this year and next year will be CRITICAL for evaluating talent and either A)making changes to acquire the right guys for those years or B)dumping the wrong players in order to let more young talent come up through for evaluation.

My thought is this: It has been beat over our heads as fans that certain players are the "cornerstone" or "foundation" for this franchise. In the past, the Royals have held onto these guys for whatever reason, and instead of moving them through, we're left with average to below average platoon players who, mixed with a bunch of free agent retreads, have managed to lose over 100 games multiple times. This franchise can't let this continue. And its guys like Butler and Gordon and others who are the adjectives named above who will either have to be hugely successful in 2-3 years OR we need to acquire the right pieces using those guys to get to the level of consistent winning. If these guys don't pan out and we've spent the last 3-4 years waiting, then we're right back to where we are today. And this has proven to be the Royals M.O. for the last 14 years.

Submitted by PRL on July 3, 2008 - 3:45pm.

Look, the issue isn't "well, this team definitely isn't going to seriously contend this year, so why trade off a young guy like Butler." The issue is that the Royals need to make a judgment about Butler for the future. They either need play him at 1B every night (Gload starting there nightly is as useful as continuing to keep TPJ on the roster if he's not even going to be a defensive platoon/replacement), and hope their belief in his power comes to fruition, OR they NEED to trade him NOW while he still has a decent level of value. If they're concerned about his power development, then then CANNOT just let him languish and attempt to "develop" over the next few years. As Royals fans we have all seen plenty of big, slow, no-defense-having guys who could spray balls all over the park at Omaha, but can't make it work in the majors (Pickering, Brazell, etc.). If they make the wrong call by sticking with him, then the last few years will have been wasted, and they won't get ANYTHING for him. I can't stand the thought of experiencing another Grimace (a/k/a The White Ken Harvey a/k/a Ichislow).

Submitted by KALee on July 3, 2008 - 8:20am.

Royal's management knew that Billy Butler was a one dimensional player when they drafted him. Despite this fact, they selected him as a high draft choice and paid him a substantial bonus. Somebody should have raised questions about his inability to play a position. He is too slow for the outfield and too short for first base. Maybe he can be a catcher.
Now we learn that number #1 draft choice, Mike Moustakas can't play shortstop very well and will have to move to third base. Some members of the scouting staff should be moved elsewhere.

Submitted by jtuck123 on July 3, 2008 - 8:38am.

Oh, scary thought...I dunno if I'd trust Billy as my catcher...I player catcher in late-grade-school through junior high in a rec league. I didn't call pitches, study up on hitters, or do anything that a major league catcher has to do. I've since learned that being a catcher is one of the most important roles on a good baseball team. I just don't know if I could see ol' Billy doin' it...
JT

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 3, 2008 - 10:38am.

the royals moved mike sweeney FROM catching so he could concentrate on hitting. LOTS of players do this. if we moved Butler to catching it would in all likelihood be counter productive.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 3, 2008 - 8:05am.

The trouble I see with the Royals is that they have coveted these name prospects for so long. They hung their hat on guys who were drafted in the marquee rounds and then when the dust settled, there wasn't much to be had. I'm not anti-Billy Butler. I'm pulling for him as much as the next guy wearing a Royals hat. But I'm trying to be realistic that if Kansas City is going to truely grow this franchise, they HAVE to be willing to move players that are or were once thought of as "cornerstones" of the rebuilding process. This is the only way KC will be able to acquire needs in an efficient manner.

I agree that Butler's stock value is down right now. However, what happens if we're sitting her next year having the same conversation about him? What if in 2010 the year KC is supposed to go undefeated and win the World Series, Butler is still floundering at 30 RBI's, 10 HR's and nothing more than doubles and singles by the All-Star break? He'll only be 24-25 years old. Still convinced he's a building block? All I'm trying to do is point out that KC has the potential to be decent next year, but it may take giving up a guy like a Butler to go get a guy with some serious pop or a great arm.

If you still think I'm full of it, here's some names to jog your memory. I'm sure if you Google back far enough, you might find some quotes mentioning these guys projecting to be middle of the line-up types for the "future":

Dee Brown
Brandon Berger
Kit Pellow
Byron Gettis
Cal Pickering
Justin Huber
Mitch Maier
Craig Brazell
Matt Tupman
Chris Lubanski - the "Billy Butler" of the 2003 draft.

Submitted by HouseThatTeahenBuilt on July 7, 2008 - 6:52am.

I only see the correlation in that they were both overdrafted, skill-wise they were almost exactly opposite.

Submitted by dsmith84 on July 3, 2008 - 10:27am.

save for Dee Brown (and he is from a very dark age of royals management) none of these guys recieved as consistent of talk as a future major league masher. None of them won as many minor league batting titles at such a young age, and none of them recieved extended playing time at the major league level at as early of an age as butler.
of this list, Butler has been talked about THE MOST, and for good reason.
every team drafts players because they feel that their tools have the potential to develop enough to be on the major league roster, even though very few ever do make it that far.
just because a guy's name and the phrase "major league" are in the same sentence doesn't mean we are fawning over him as if he is the next ken griffey jr. it is because the scouts see some level of potential there.
it just so happens more scouts agree that Butler's potential is very high than with any other advanced minor league/new major league player in our system.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 3, 2008 - 11:03am.

They do nothing to help MLB teams win a world series. Its all about what you can do at the MLB level. Scouts have salivated about Butler since he was in tee-ball. The same scouts also said Gordon was going to be a can't miss, instant stud due to his experience in college. So far, Gordon has hit OK, but nothing compared to the hype he received during draft day.

just playing the opposite side here.

Submitted by Jcarter on July 3, 2008 - 7:36am.

I think the problem with Butler is those stats are all good and fine, but we can't afford another .270 hitter with 10 HR in a season with no position. We have got to have some power and if trading Butler for someone who has a better track record than him power wise at this point doesn't seem all that bad of an idea to me. I get that he had potential and what not, but he shows no signs of driving the ball.

Grant it yes that usually comes in a player's second or third full year in the majors, so personally I agree and think we need to hold onto him, but I can see the flip side too.

Submitted by jtuck123 on July 3, 2008 - 8:41am.

...and the fact that Billy Butler was brought up and played 50 something games last year. Because of that, I think pitchers have found a way to pitch a little better to him...granted, he is hitting singles, so he's showing that he can find a way to get a hit even if it's not the pitch that he wants. So, I can see Billy in the future getting the doubles and the homers that the Royals saw from him in AAA, but right now I can see why so many people want him on the trading block...

EDIT: The posts were consistantly getting 10-20 comments, and then something happened and there's like 40 comments on the last 2 posts...When do you qualify this blog as a "super-blog"?
JT

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on July 3, 2008 - 8:07am.

....the point I failed to make was, that's great if you can trade Butler for a guy with a proven track record of power, but it'd also be great if the Royals could trade Jimmy Gobble for Albert Pujols.

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on July 3, 2008 - 10:58am.

freaking funny.

So lets hope that BB turns into Babe Ruth between now and 2010.

Submitted by Royalbaseman on July 3, 2008 - 9:07am.

Sam,

A little off the Butler subject but since the move to 3rd by Moustakas was brought up I thought I would ask; I remember reading in Baseball America when Moustakas played for the USA Junior Team how the coaches raved about his play in the OF. They said how athletic he was out there and of course his strong arm; most of the national baseball people seem to think he will be an outfielder in the big leagues. Do the Royals not believe this? Why don't they just put him in the OF right now and stop messing with him in the INF? Are they afraid they are going to lose Gordon when he is up for free agency? Thanks

Submitted by seanut1 on July 3, 2008 - 11:06pm.

I told myself from the onset of reading this article that this topic was so ridiculous that only a few non-baseball fans would be calling for a trade of B.B. But it seems there is a boystrous few that are actually insinuating that this should happen... PEOPLE, HE'S 22!!!! He wouldn't even be in the majors yet for most other teams and instead be waiting in the wings mashing the ball in AAA. Why? Because other teams are deeper and can wait to fully develop most players in the minors. B.B is still raw in some aspects but is progressing nicely. Everyone talks about how he's one dimensional, but have they seen enough of him at first base to say he's bad? I watch the team all the time and I can't recall any major bungled plays. He's not that bad defensively and he'll get better. I already think he's better than Sweeney ever was defensively (granted, that's like saying he bats better than Berroa or TPJ, setting the bar pretty dang low). And to those who mention he's too short for 1st base, that's absurd. He's +6ft. I remember a pretty good first baseman who wore #5 that wasn't exactly moonlightng as power forward for the Celtics during the winter months. GIVE HIM TIME PEOPLE! BE PATIENT! It will pay dividends down the road

Submitted by JGep on July 4, 2008 - 2:54pm.

In reading all the other comments, they appears to be just about right on, for the most part. However, I do want to point this out, just to make it clear. When comparing these young Royals to past young Royals cornerstone players, there are a few MAJOR differences.
#1 - Dayton Moore. I could not stand ANY GM the Royals have had since Joe Burke's health forced him to step down as GM. I thought John Schuerholz was bad, and then we got Herk and Allard (OMG, Wow, how they made J.S. actually look like he wasn't terrible is beyond me, but somehow they managed to do just that). Dayton Moore has shown me that he is VERY, VERY much in the same mold as Joe Burke. And, Joe Burke and Cedric Tallis are the two masterminds that built the Royals into a perenial contender. I think Dayton is THE BEST GM in baseball, for building a team from the ground up. More than any other GM in baseball right now (Bobby Cox is Atlanta's manager, not the GM anymore). Just trust Dayton and see what you have in 2 years.
#2 Most of those other players of the future that didn't pan out were not the best available talent, and the Royals KNEW it when they took them. They drafted to economics, not talent. Choosing to draft "signable" players, and not the "best" players. They openly, routinely, admitted that. That has CHANGED! Now the Royals are taking the best player, EVEN IF Boras is representing them. AND, they are signing these guys.
#3 When it comes to Butler, and how he is different from all the other failures, it comes down to this. I mentioned this before. He UNDERSTANDS the strike zone, and does NOT get himself out by swinging at bad pitches, UNLESS he is fooled by the pitch (I.E., looking for one pitch, and getting another). That problem WILL correct itself over time as Butler gets experience. NONE of those other failures had the patience at the plate that Billy has. In fact, I will shock all of you with this comment. I think Alex Gordon is going to be a SUPERSTAR player, and a better player than Billy, OVERALL. Alex IS the best young player we have, no question. HOWEVER, when it comes to pure hitting, in the end, I think Billy will be proven to be the best of the bunch.
John G. (Again. Sorry guys. I'm done now).

Submitted by jtuck123 on July 5, 2008 - 9:23am.

There is HTML tag that you need to learn bad man...it's called strong...
JT

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