Jose Guillen's frustration and the Royals' struggles closing out innings

Jose Guillen's in the news again, calling his team "horse (bleep)," for certain baserunning mistakes and what he sees as a tendency to give up leads late.

This is somewhat the same thing he said in Sunday's paper.

When I talked to Guillen, he was especially upset about the late leads, and this was on Saturday, a day after they gave it up on Friday night, so the frustration was no doubt amplified.

Guillen is a lot of things, but he is not someone who's going to back down from most anything he says, so when a group of reporters asked him about it on Monday he said many of the same things.

Most all of what Guillen says has merit, with the exception of the bit about the late leads. According to Baseball Reference, which is where all the following stats come from, the Royals are 19-8 (.704) when leading after four innings, 23-7 (.767) after five, 25-4 (.862) after six, 28-3 (.903) after seven, and 31-1 (.969) after eight.

But when Guillen talks about not playing a complete nine innings, about getting some of the job done and then letting up, I think part of what he's referring to is the team's problems with two outs.

I could be putting words in his mouth with that, but I think that's part of it. Or maybe I'm projecting my thoughts onto him, who knows.

Either way, the numbers absolutely back it. As Guillen might say, the Royals' pitching and defense (stinks) with two outs.

Entering Monday (when the Rockies scored their first three runs with two outs) the Royals had given up 152 runs with two outs.

That's third in all of baseball, behind only Pittsburgh (158) and Texas (157), and we can all agree neither place is the standard of measurement for a franchise trying to build on pitching and defense.

The numbers are a little worse when you look at it as a percentage. Someone can probably tell me why I'm wrong, but the percentage seems the better way to go with this.

Entering Monday, the Royals had given up 42.6 percent of their runs with two outs. That's only slightly behind the White Sox (42.9) and Mets (42.7) for worst in baseball. The AL average is 37.2 percent.

When the Royals gagged the big lead against Minnesota, all five Twins runs came with two outs. Maybe it was mercy that Justin Morneau's game-winning homer in the 10th came on the first pitch with no outs, but those are the kinds of things that stick in memories, memories like Guillen's.

Now, I can't say with any sabermetric authority how big an impact consistent two-out runs have. It seems logical.

The Rays (110 two-out runs surrendered, 35.8 percent of their total), Red Sox (120, 36.4), and Cubs (111, 36.3) are all better than average, and they're all on target for the playoffs.

Then again, the Indians (108, 32.9) and Mariners (128, 34.0) are better than the league average, and they might be the two most disappointing teams in baseball.

The White Sox and Angels (129, 41.5) give it up with two outs and are in first place.

So, who knows? Maybe I did all this math to prove nothing.

But it sure figures that a team that can't close out innings --- especially one trying to build on pitching and defense --- will have a hard time winning.

And it also figures that fans who cheer for a team that can't close out innings AND has a high-priced, slugging free agent outfielder known for speaking his mind will probably hear some frustration.

Of course, the man is batting .437 with six home runs, 22 RBIs, and an .817 slugging percentage his last 17 games.

Even with his "horse (bleep)" start, he's projecting to hit .293 with 28 homers and 128 RBIs. That last number is more than twice Emil Brown's team-leading total from last year (Guillen is two away from matching Emil's 62 from 2007) and would be the team's highest mark since Mike Sweeney's club record 144 in 2000.

Royals fans won't mind if he continues to let out his frustration like this.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on June 23, 2008 - 11:00pm.
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Submitted by Isaac on June 26, 2008 - 8:55pm.

Guillen has backed up his comments with his play. But let's put that aside for right now. Let's look at what he said. First, he has placed blame on himself as much as the rest of the team. He has not called any players out individually. He has defended Hillman when the media questioned him. I see nothing wrong with what he is doing. He is not out of line with anything he has said and he doesn't put himself above everyone else.

If he keeps performing and behaving himself as he has, I will not have anything against his blow ups. If anything, they have been warranted.

Submitted by jhart227 on June 24, 2008 - 7:03pm.

I totally agree, once again, with what you're saying here in your post. For some reason, this Royals team (along with numerous Royals teams in the last 10 or 15 years) are just more prone to coasting than most other teams, only they seem to cast losing in a vast, much larger net. They never seem to give up when it comes to thinking they've get everything made at inappropriate moments. It's almost as if they think the innings only last two innings (and we've seen that lapse in judgement with two regimes now).
You're totally on the ball. I also wanted to bring your attention to my new blog about the
Royals, and its first post, which is located here: http://royalsandcelebs.today.com/2008/06/24/hello-world/
I hope you enjoy it. It's all about the Royals, celebrities, and anything else that crosses my mind. The first one is one Guillen's latest comments on the state of the team. Thanks for all the great posts every day, and I hope to be hearing from you soon. Jhart227

Submitted by Daytons Helper on June 24, 2008 - 2:57pm.

Guillen has a fine line to tread between motivator and "white noise". He needs to also give some praise to guys doing well if it's deserved otherwise his complaining will start to fall on deaf ears in the clubhouse. I like Guillen and what he said earlier in the season needed to be said but he needs to be careful to not alienate his teammates in the process of trying to pull the Royals up by the bootstraps.

I know what VORP, WARP, PERA mean. If you don't pick up a Baseball Prospectus.

Submitted by BigGuyDon on June 24, 2008 - 12:17pm.

I'm fine with Jose blasting his teammates on a nightly basis for every mistake they make, as long as he doesn't mind when they question his pitch selection or throw him under the bus every time he goes 0-4 with 3 strikeouts.

For comparison, a veteran like Grudz would have been well within the "Guillen code" to blast Guillen in the media for being fat and unprofessional when he started the season overweight and hit like Pena.

For a young team that is going to make some mistakes, you can't have a supposed team leader blowing everyone up in the media every night. Someone needs to reign him in.

Submitted by bangoskank on June 25, 2008 - 7:45am.

Guillen had two walks last night. How's that for pitch selection?

I don't think Guillen is blasting guys for striking out. He's blasting them for not caring that they strike out. He's blasting them for doing stupid stuff on the base paths which is something that is becoming inexcusable to me. I mean, how many times can our guys make these bush leagues mistakes on the base paths before they start concentrating a little bit harder on what they are doing.

Submitted by jtuck123 on June 24, 2008 - 12:38pm.

I think that's just the problem with the Royals...someone should have called him out, but the Royals are, well, a "bunch of babies"...What happened to players getting unhappy about striking out, or on the bad end of a terrible call? Nothing happens...they walk right back in the dugout and don't show emotion...Someone had to have noticed Guillen's inability to come to training camp in shape and his inability to hit in April, and I guaruntee you they did see it. BUT THEY DID NOTHING!!!

Grudz doesn't fit the mold for "clubhouse leader"...He's the strong, silent type guy who doesn't speak out much. You need a guy like Jose Guillen to piss people off and try to prove him wrong.

And I would like to see someone call out Jose Guillen when he strikes out twice and goes 0 for 4...if he ever does again this season. The dude doesn't seem to be letting up on crushing the ball. Plus, who in the clubhouse is hitting better than him and can back up what they say? Nobody. When was the last time Jose Guillen made an error on the basepaths? April? (when he should have run out a pop up...) When was the last time he made an error in the field? April? (dropping a routine fly ball) He has been a model example of near-perfection in the last 2 months...So, based on his performance, I think he has every right in the world to go off on some of his teammates...

And when does this whole young thing stop? The Royals aren't a "young" team anymore...Teahen is in his 3rd year and Greinke and Buck are both in their 4th years...DeJesus has been around for just about that long too... Alex Gordon is the only really "young guy" on the team right now (Butler doesn't count until he gets back).We have players that are mediocre that can show spots of brilliance...ex: Ross Gload - 31 years old and just hit his first homer... So when can we stop being a "young team"?

I'm gonna agree with you that he was very unprofessional in his first 2 months he was with the Royals (spring training and April). But this is what the Royals need right now. Someone to kick them in the face and get them up and playing better. I think that factored in to Dayton Moore signing him and look what Seattle's like this year without him, granted he's not the only reason they're doing bad, (Ichiro = .288 on the season....)but I think he's the right person in the right place at the right time for the Kansas City Royals...
JT

Submitted by lakewoodroyal on June 25, 2008 - 8:05am.

JT - you are right on the money. Guillen is ripe for being called out, but how are you going to call out your best overall baseball player right now. And part of me thinks you can see where the division line might be showing in the lockeroom with his comments. Notice the players who've not only stepped it up but kept the foot on the pedal since his first tirade? Can you tell the guys still making the same mistakes?

I agree with you completely. There is more than just winning a couple of ballgames to show that you aren't going to be the laughing- stock of baseball any longer. Maybe this is the Tequilla shots Muser was referring to.

Submitted by Otis26 on June 24, 2008 - 2:02pm.

Both of you presented good arguments. I agree with JT but well done to both of you.

I had a chance to talk a little with a few of the players after the game last night and told them to let Guillen know I support him.

It's one thing to go off when you're sucking wind...but when you're playing like he is you have every right to look around and expect others to step it up.

He would know better than us why some of these things are happening. It's either lack of skill or lack of effort. Sounds to me like he figures it's lack of effort (concentration, etc.)...and I'm not in any position to disagree with him.

Sure he got off to a slow start...but he admitted that he showed up in poor shape. I'm not hearing too many other players on the team stepping up and saying they're disappointed in their own performance and admit they've got to get their stuff together. He's accepted responsibility for being bad to start...now he's got the right to call others out.

Submitted by jtuck123 on June 24, 2008 - 6:39am.

There was a stat that was on the Ball Star or on the royals section of the star a couple of weeks ago that said the number of games that the Royals have won when they hit a home run...Well, I'm thinking that if we can hit one every game, we can make the playoffs this year, right?

Oh, and by the way...I was listening to 610 or 810 yesterday and whoever was hosting had been talking about Guillen and his comments before the game. He asked callers to call in and comment about those things that Guillen said, and then when the callers tried to give their opinions (most of them positive about Guillen), he would shut them down and tell them how terrible Guillen was coming in fat to training camp and playing a terrible month of April....Anyone else hear that?

I'm sorry man, but I could care less how much he let his teammates down in spring training and even into the month of April, because the dude is playing excellent baseball and will continue until September. I think five months of over-par playing makes up for one month of sub-par baseball. If Guillen was playing terrible and was still "fat", then yes I would have a problem, but the guy is making every single player on that team look like a 2 year old when he gets up to bat and crushes the ball...

PS - anyone else notice the speed of his swing? My god, I don't think I've ever seen a Royal who can get the bat around faster than that...

PSS - Props to Dutton for the "Mexicutioner" in his article. I vote for that Joakim Soria nickname...
JT

Submitted by JYarnell on June 24, 2008 - 5:33am.

I watched the Royals pregame last night, which had a few clips of Guillen talking. I don't know if there was a lot more that he had to say or not, it was all I had access to.

In those clips he seems to be talking about the offense, not the pitching. He specifically pointed out base running mistakes and not being able to move runners or score with two outs.

And when he talks about playing all nine innings, I could at least see that applying to our offense. How many games (until this recent surge) have we scored early and then done nothing the rest of the game? You've quoted the stats above to prove that we've done a pretty good job of holding leads. But how about that crazy stat where we were like 0-38 when trailing after seven? That's an offense that doesn't play all nine innings.

As far as Guillen himself, I'm becoming a bigger and bigger fan of the guy. Of course it's easy to root for him when he's absolutely tearing up the league. But he's also becoming a leader. He's not content with winning a couple of games, he wants to see the team play consistently good baseball. And he backs it up by playing very good ball, both offensively and defensively.

I've been on teams before that lost a lot of games and losing becomes a culture. No one likes to lose, but after a while you start to accept it and get used to it. Many of our current guys have been around losing a lot. Maybe Guillen can help set a new culture for this club - one that will do all the things necessary to win consistently.

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