Huh? Shortstop problem? What shortstop problem?

I'm a huge Royals fan, always have been and probably always will be but let's not get delusional about Kyle just yet.

Yes I know his ERA is 1.46 and he's 3-0 for KC thus far. I'm very happy with the boost he's given the bottom of the rotation and is certainly better than say Brett Tomko, however there are some warning signs that he's been more lucky than good.

First his WHIP is 1.42; that folks is just not very good.

Second his K/BB Ratio is 1:1 12K/12 BB in 24.2 IP. I also am trying to find his BABIP but I know it's very low .

The Royals need some luck but I hope no one is seeing him as a long-term solution unless he can either cut his walks in half or raise his strike out rate. His K rate seems more likely given his stuff but he's living on the edge right now.

I know what VORP, WARP, PERA mean. If you don't pick up a Baseball Prospectus.

...but what if Davies could continue on his high walk/low strikeout ratio and only give up a couple runs a game? I would take that any day...That's kinda what Brian Bannister did at the beginning of his season as well...

And I tried to figure out Davie's BABIP for you and the closest I can get is anywhere from .288 to .298...I don't know how many sac flies have been hit against him so those figures are for highest amount of sac flies to lowest amount of sac flies hit. Luckily for me, only 4 runs have been scored against him and one of them was yesterday and it wasn't a sac fly, so that left 3 ER unnaccounted for... Nonetheless, the kid has a very good BABIP. I'm at work and can't check anything because of the filter but check some better sites for stats...I'm sure they'll have it...

And, I don't wanna be mean about it, but I also figured his WHIP and it's like .03 higher than what you had, as if it really makes a big difference...I got 1.45 rounded up...
JT

Nah, I'm not offended I grabbed the stats from ESPN.com and apparently they don't have the BABIP stat.

I know you are hopeful about Davies and I am too but I'm more hopeful his peripheral stats improve based on his "stuff" than I am that he can maintain being lucky. Stuff is easier to maintain from season to season while "luck" is fickle.

So to rebuttal, no, I dont hold any delusions that Davies will continue at his current ERA given his WHIP, BABIP or strikeout rates. If he could just improve on the strikeout rates everything else would fall into place. Only time will tell.

I know what VORP, WARP, PERA mean. If you don't pick up a Baseball Prospectus.

There's no way he can survive when he walks too many and then doesn't get any strikeouts...When I was watching him yesterday, it seemed like even though he walked a lot of batters, he seemed to have control of the pitches he threw...I know he doesn't wanna throw any fat pitches, but his locations seemed to be right where Olivo wanted them to be...Hopefully he can develop to be a great pitcher...let's hope for the best...
JT

I'm pumped that Daives has at least been consistent. I am, however, not thrilled by his line drive percentage. He's getting hit hard, so his BABIP of .280-.300 is actually very lucky. That's bad!

Hopefully this brief consistency continues, and his results catches up to his stuff.

You know, I think I was one of those people who blasted you on Pena. From the bottom of my heart...I'm sorry. Pena is not who we need at shortstop...He'd work on a team who has all the power they need and everyone hits over .300, but last time I checked, that wasn't the Royals. So, my bad there...Having Butler in Omaha has given Trey Hillman (and for that matter, Dayton Moore) a chance to see a good look at what some of our other players have to offer...It's given Trey an opportunity to change up the outfield a little bit. By moving Teahen to first, that leaves room for Gathright, DeJesus and Guillen to all be in the outfield, but still have the bat that Teahen should be showing... I think that works for the Royals. I know Teahen gave up the error that lost the game last week, but I think he's not a bad fit for 1st base. At least I think he's got a better bat that Gload...I think as soon as we find out what we need to do at catcher, we could bring Butler back up. One of the catchers needs to go. With Butler's bat being better than Buck's and Olivo's arm better than Buck's, I think Buck should be the one to go...I know that he can call a game really good, but these are choices that need to be made, especially when your 2nd catcher is hitting the DH spot that belongs to Butler...Am I rambling? Does any of this make sense?
JT

I think that Buck is the better keeper here. Olivo works great as a backup catcher/DH supplying power and emotion. Many times this year, the pitchers and coaches have said how great Buck is with calling a game and knowing the competition. His Defense is good, and I know his arm isn't the best.

On the note about the outfield, I was impressed with the production of a Guillen-Gathright-DeJesus OF with Teahen at 1B. It seemed to work well and Gathright makes a great 9 hole hitter.

I see a Butler/Teahen rotation at 1B working out well offensively. You can mix Teahen between 1B and RF depending on Gathright's play or opposing pitching. Butler then DH's when Teahen is at 1B.

Its just an idea. Main thing is that pitchers love a catcher like Buck. I say do what the pitcher loves best...they influence who gets on base, and who needs a strong arm if no one gets on base? Or puts the ball on the ground to infielders?

My opinion, Dayton is showcasing some of the AAA talent right now before the All-Star Break and so far it's working out well. Davies could be shipped to a team desperate for arms (insert Yankees, Cardinals here) and they could get something slick for him.

You are correct JT we don't need two catchers that are essentially the same guy. Good game caller, a bit of power and no on-base. It's the same guy no matter which one you stick back there. What's sad is the fact our offense is so inept that one of them plays DH for us.

I know what VORP, WARP, PERA mean. If you don't pick up a Baseball Prospectus.

Buck and Olivo are not the same player. Buck has historically been the better hitter and is better at getting on base (plus he's younger).

Olivo had a hot start to the year no doubt, but he's starting to cool off. All of his production was tied up in his average. So when he stopped making good contact (maybe pitchers adjusted to him?), he no longer looks so favorable.

Buck, however, can draw a walk. Buck calls a better game, and the pitchers seem to like Buck better (I think the Star had an article on it the other day quoting Greinke, Meche, etc...). Glaring deficiency in Buck's game is gunning runners.

I'm starting to agree more and more with the idea of keeping John Buck...What are we gonna do with Olivo then? I'm thinking that we should start looking for some trade's that involve Olivo...
JT

Offensively:

Buck .249 avg .325 obp .367 slug
11 doubles 3 HR 22 RBI 17 bb 36 K

Olivo .262 avg .295 obp .494 slug
14 doubles 8 HR 25 RBI 6 bb 45 K

While Buck's OBP is 30 points higher his .367 slug is well..sad. In almost identical official at-bats we are looking at 14 EBHits for Buck and 22 for Olivo. I hate Olivo's BB/K ratio but for a team so starved for power I have to think Olivo gets the nod offensively.

Defensively:
Buck 2 PB 21 stolen 3 cs CERA 4.17 (note* Catcher ERA is an unofficial stat and Diamond Mind Baseball as well as Baseball Prospectus have found no data to back up that a catcher has anything to do with a pitcher's ERA so take that for what it's worth).

Olivo 0 PB 6 stolen 7 caught CERA 5.36

So if you believe in CERA Buck is helping the pitchers but all other more quantifiable defensive stats favor Olivo. I'm not saying CERA has no bearing but when companies that do this for a living don't use the stat it makes me wonder.

I know what VORP, WARP, PERA mean. If you don't pick up a Baseball Prospectus.

I think given the stats you presented, it mostly favors Buck. Runs win the game (duh) and RBI is the most important stat there...so Buck is almost as good as Olivo. Sure the power isn't quite the same, but then add the defense and familiarity with the pitchers (which clearly favors Buck by experience alone), you stick with Buck. OBP is higher, and maybe the avg isn't the best, but you get on base...bottom line. Can we get a stat of WP per catcher? I bet Buck blocks a lot more than Olivo.

I kinda like the rotation of Olivo in DH. Perhaps a steady rotation of Teahen/Butler at 1B, Butler/Olivo at DH, Buck/Olivo at catcher? It would keep ABs up and can provide match up strengths.

Surely I cannot be the only one who groans every time I see Buck behind the plate. I have seen it argued on many a message board that Buck "calls the better game," but to be fair, it's as much or more the pitchers' responsibility to know how to pitch opposing batters- and they always have veto power when it comes to the signs being thrown their way. Moreover, whatever he supposedly brings defensively with "game managing", he is an absolute liability for the jobs once thought to be the most important roles for a catcher: blocking balls at the plate and throwing out runners. This no talent A-clown hasn't even thrown out a single runner all season. What catcher could hang with a team not throwing anyone out for almost half the season? As for blocking balls, ask Ramirez about the game a couple of weeks ago when the winning run was allowed to score not only because Buck didn't get his glove in front of it, but also because he made the genious move of running the ball halfway back to home plate after it took a fortunate bounce back to him when careening off the backstop. He could and should have flipped the ball straight to Ramirez for the tag out. Just one example, but throw all this in with his pedestrian offensive numbers and you'll see this guy has to go... wouldn't be more than a backup on most teams. Why do we assume these guys like Buck are going to develop into average to above average players when everything in their playing history does not point to such probablities. This is the dude's fourth season in the majors. He's shown his capabilites and incapabilities. Next!

I'm not the biggest Buck fan, but the more I look at it, the more I believe that he needs to be back there more...We have young pitchers who aren't as familiar with batters as, say, Gil Meche...So, Buck is a good fit back there because he knows these batters and he helps them a lot more than I think Olivo could...But, I do agree, Buck's offensive capabilities need to improve drastically if he wants to keep his job...
JT

Pena is a wiz in the field but the royals need runs. they desperately need runs. If aviles is as good as he has looked, he's going to get us some runs. Send pena down. Bring butler back.