Today really is the most important day of the year for the Royals.
The draft is how the Royals have to build, and as long as they're picking toward the top, they need to be drafting future superstars first and then get lucky with a couple guys in the later rounds.
And no matter how many scouts a team has (and the Royals have beefed up their scouting) this is still a bit like choosing the best looking girl from a partial view across the room in a dark and smokey bar.
It's easy when you read these scouting reports to think that Buster Posey is Joe Mauer with better defense, Tim Beckham is Derek Jeter with more tools, and Pedro Alvarez is a triple crown contender waiting to happen.
But chances are, at least one of those guys will fall WAY below expectations. Maybe two. Even all three.
For instances, here are the top five picks from the 2003 draft, and five years should be enough time to get some feel for it:
1. Delmon Young (HS OF). Has had his issues, obviously, but still has a chance to be a very good hitter.
2. Rickie Weeks (college 2B). Sixth in Rookie voting in 2005; batting .209 this year.
3. Kyle Sleeth (college RHP). Retired in March.
4. Tim Stauffer (college RHP). Found to have major arm issues after his selection; just had labrum surgery last month.
5. Chris Lubanski (HS OF). Safe to say this one didn't work out for the Royals.
Now, there were some very good players to come out of the first round five years ago. Nick Markakis (7th, Orioles), John Danks (9th, Rangers), Aaron Hill (13th, Blue Jays), David Murphy (17th, Red Sox), Conor Jackson (19th, D-Backs), and Carlos Quentin (29th, D-Backs) among them.
But the point is it's much easier to find guys like Ryan Harvey (6th, Cubs), Michael Aubrey (11th, Indians), Ryan Wagner (14th, Reds), Jeff Allison (16th, Marlins, who is pitching again after drug problems), Brad Snyder (18th, Indians), Matt Moses (21st, Twins), and Brad Sullivan (25th, A's).
Also of limited help to the Royals would be selecting guys who turn out to be only the "solid" players that Rany talks about, and there are plenty of first round picks in that group, too. I'll only mention Brian Anderson (15th, White Sox) and David Aardsma (22nd, Giants) because I'm tired of listing names now.
I know the more hardcore baseball fans among you are aware of all this. NBA drafts, even at the height of their "problems" with too many high school kids, were more certain than MLB drafts.
It's part of the beauty of baseball and how it's all set up right now. The Royals have to be one of those teams that consistently draft better than everyone else, because their options to make up ground in other areas are still somewhat limited.
One imperative ancillary benefit of improved drafts is having a system deep enough to make trades. The Royals are getting closer to that with their minor league pitching, but still need to draft and develop more hitters.
The Red Sox are the model organization right now, and one reason for their success is they have prospects like Hanley Ramirez to trade when they need to get Josh Beckett.
The Royals probably won't ever swing the same free agent stick as the Red Sox, and may not even get to the point they can spend Big Papi money to keep all their own superstars.
But today is an essential step in gaining ground on the Bostons of the world in developing top talent.
Sam - what is really striking about your post today is that 3 of the successes from the 2003 draft first round are regulars with the White Sox. John Danks and Carlos Quinton are (stars?) starters and Brian Anderson is a regular contributor.
Guess who's in first place?
I guess this is one more piece of info to confirm that success is bread in the draft (or through trades with other teams). It sure makes Kenny Williams (ChiSox GM) look like a superstar.