The juicy Royals speculation of the moment...and why it'll stay as just speculation

This rumor is gaining momentum, people are talking, the idea is slowly turning into something of an underground thought and movement, so lets just get it out there:

The Royals should cut Mark Teahen, maybe John Buck, too, and use the savings to sign Orlando Hudson.

Now, let's just point out that the Royals not only will NOT do this, but there is a good case as to why.

On the surface, sure, it looks great. Teahen doesn't have a solid spot on this team, not with all three outfield spots spoken for, not with Alex Gordon on the verge (perhaps?) of a breakout season, and not with first base overstuffed with Mike Jacobs, Billy Butler, Ryan Shealy, Ross Gload and Kila Ka'aihue.

So, yeah, depending on what you think of Teahen's chances at second base, the Royals don't want to pay a backup $3.575 million, and rightfully so. Contracts are not fully guaranteed for arbitration guys, so if the Royals cut Teahen 16 or more days before opening day, they could save about $3 million.

That's $3 million you won't spend on a guy you think might, maybe, possibly -- if everything goes right -- win the starting second base job. And that's $3 million they could use for a guy they fully KNOW would be their starting second baseman, and do it well above the league average.

You might think this is a good plan.

And you might be right.

Except that the Royals STILL wouldn't have enough to give Hudson what he's asking for. He wants between $3 million and $5 million for a base salary*, plus makeable incentives that could push him close to $7 million or even $8 million.

That's too much for a team that's already at their maximum payroll number, and, truthfully, a little above it.

* Of course, this is the same guy who turned down a three-year, $24 million extension from the Diamondbacks last summer because he thought he'd get $10-$12 million on the open market this year, so, well, yeah, there's a chance he might need to come down.

But a-ha, you say. There is still more fat in the Royals' projected payroll.

And you're right.

Just not in the cuttable kind.

Oh, John Buck's set to make $2.9 million this season, which seems like an awful lot to pay a backup catcher because, well, it is. Cutting Buck would save about $2.4 million, so now we're at about $5.4 million saved and we've got a seat at the table with Hudson.

Brayan Pena can be your backup catcher, Willie Bloomquist can take the utility role he's probably best suited for, your four bench players are now much more efficient, and that AL central is looking winnable.

Your lineup looks something like this:

CF Coco Crisp
SS Mike Aviles
LF David DeJesus
RF Jose Guillen
DH Mike Jacobs
1B Billy Butler
3B Alex Gordon
2B Orlando Hudson
C Miguel Olivo

Not bad, right?

But there's a reason it would take a massive change of thought among Royals brass to do anything CLOSE to this.

General managers are paid to think of the worst-case scenario. I haven't talked to Dayton Moore about Hudson since this new momentum started to build, but I think I know him well enough (even though I was apparently the only guy down here not to wish him a happy birthday yesterday) to know his thought process on this.

What if David DeJesus gets hurt again? Or Alex Gordon? Or Guillen?

What if Aviles regresses?

What if Hudson, who hasn't finished either of the last two seasons, gets hurt again?

Or, goodness here, what if Olivo gets hurt?

Mark Teahen is the Royals' insurance policy at, depending on how you look at it, four or five positions -- half the diamond.

Go down the list, and the chance of each guy getting hurt is less than 50-50, significantly so.

But the chance of ONE of them getting hurt? Vegas is not taking that bet.

The Royals would be particularly screwed if they didn't have either Olivo or Buck, because there is virtually no depth in the farm system at catcher.

There are reasons to be encouraged by Brayan Pena, but as a friend was saying today, Pena is benefitting right now from the "backup quarterback" bit, where nobody's overwhelmed by the starter(s), so the guy you've never seen looks better and better.

I suppose the question isn't so much would the Royals' starting 9 be better by dumping Teahen and Buck for Hudson? because of course it would.

The question is over the course of a 162-game season, will the Royals be better off keeping the depth they haven't had in so many years?

Of course, this all leads to the obvious question:

Should David Glass just swallow hard and sign the check?

Glass has already blessed a 20 to 25 percent payroll hike, to an all-time franchise record. The Royals are at or above the limit he originally set.

But the Royals are also staring in the face an obvious chance to turn the lineup's biggest question mark into one of its biggest strengths.

They're doing this at a time when the AL Central looks to be exceedingly winnable, when the club is about to open what is being billed as a brand-new ballpark -- which was overwhelmingly funded by taxpayers.

Sure is fun to spend other people's money.

Submitted by Sam Mellinger on February 18, 2009 - 7:51am.
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Teahen

Submitted by catcher59 on February 20, 2009 - 12:03am.

catcher59 What's wrong with trying Teahen at catcher. He's big enough, athletic, has a strong arm and there's your back up catcher or if he shows enough, the starter. If that were to work out, the Royals could have a hell of a team.

Have you played catcher?????

Submitted by charlie on February 22, 2009 - 6:24pm.

It is not just playing catch with a 90+mph arm... A good catcher is like having an extra coach on the field who can position your players when they space out their assignments and he has to know how to call a game.

Personally, I don't see the transfer as worth the hassle.

It's just fun to say...

Submitted by drewfuss on February 19, 2009 - 3:01pm.

Tug Hulett! He's sure to give Jason Smith a run for his money this spring.

draft pick

Submitted by drewfuss on February 19, 2009 - 8:29am.

Don't forget, if we were to sign Hudson for 1 year and he has a decent year (compared to other middle infielders) and leaves as a type A free agent, we would get the draft pick back next year, and potentially a higher draft pick. So in that situation, you're paying the money, and trading a second round pick this June for an extra pick next June. Take a college player (not Dayton's usual preference), and you've eliminated that "delay" if the player makes it.

Great point

Submitted by RoyalsRetro on February 19, 2009 - 10:22am.

I don't see how we don't jump on this.

It is quite simple.

Submitted by charlie on February 19, 2009 - 3:13pm.

If you're building for the long haul, OH is not the answer. He's 31 and by the time the Royals can get a team that can consistently compete, he'll be ready to leave and we'll still have a pseudo-hole at 2b. If GMDM feels we can compete (which I feel we can do w/o OH), then he should get what will help to put us over the top. OH isn't that answer. I believe we're well set for the 2b/ss tandem with Aviles/Callaspo/Bloomquist/Teahen covering there and if there is a place to boost fielding, I'd opt for getting a proven ss like Orlando Cabrera and moving Aviles into 2-b to compete with Callaspo. If we're going to talk bang for the buck, OH is not going to provide enough of a boost to warrant the expenditure. We'd be better served by getting our draft pick this year and another next year and growing our own talent.

As to putting together "the best team", I would point out that the recent Tigers were supposed to be monsters with Pudge, Gary Schefield, Maglio Ordones, Carlos Guillen, Placido Polanco and Curtis Gunderson... That was so until injuries kept them from performing and cost them the penant.

Also, we really need to look at what we've got on the minor league "shelf" and, the ETA on them is to the majors and what will arrive as a group to impact our team so we can acquire any supporting players.

I like Hudson, but

Submitted by AxDxMx on February 18, 2009 - 4:18pm.

the draft pick isn't worth it.

Also, to suggest that House and Pena are not major league ready is wrong I think. House's bat is ML ready, his catching skill is questionable. Pena as a catcher is pretty good, and has good contact rates at the plate. I'm pretty sure that combined Pena and House would hit better than Olivo and Buck (probably less homers though), and they could play at least passable defense. In fact, according to the Chone rankings for catchers offensively:

14. House (1 run below the average MLB hitter)

20. Pena (6 runs below average)

42. Buck (14 runs below average)

74. Olivo (26 runs below average)

one more thought

Submitted by drewfuss on February 18, 2009 - 1:27pm.

Before I attempt to actually accomplish something worthwhile today...

1. Wouldn't DM trade Buck given the opportunity (i.e. if anyone would take him)? I'm sure Buck has plenty of fans, but I feel this is likely true.
2. The organization has already stated that Olivo will be the starting/regular catcher.

If 1 and 2 are true, don't you have to ask: What are we doing paying the guy nearly $3m if he's not good enough to be the regular backstop for us or (apparently) anyone else?

I'll be cheering for Buck and anyone else that takes the field in April, but like German, Pena, and Peralta, it will be a head-scratcher if he is on the roster and Hudson (or someone else with more talent/value) is not, especially given that the contract is not guaranteed.

You're right, however...

Submitted by charlie on February 18, 2009 - 3:40pm.

Buck is a good catcher, and if you looked over the pickings in this year's free agent catcher options, one can understand that Buck has some value based on quality and age. His problem is that Olivo bats more than he does and is not a defensive liability. Otherwise, a pro-Buck argument could be made.

I would have traded him back before the July trade deadline, but we have him and he's serviceable. German has had all the chances in the world to make the lineup. Pena swings at everything but hits very little. I would have cut him outright.

If we look at where an addition would have the most upside for the Royals, Sheets would be the one addition that while being a gamble could pay off big. The field positiosn are pretty much set with the logjam at 1-b and teh competition at 2-b and Aviles having to prove that his rookie season was no fluke. 3-b is set with Gordon and the OF is also set with Guillen being the one area where one would desire some improvement. That leaves the rotation as the most impact prone area of the roster and Sheets is a well matched pitcher for "the K". Think about it: Meche, Greinke, Sheets, Banny and Davies...

Hudson is a good 2-baseman, but between the cost to get him here and the amount of improvement he brings, I don't figure how we can spend that kind of moolah on a non-essential player. I'd be better impressed with a top-shelf ss and moving Aviles to 2-b.

sheets

Submitted by drewfuss on February 18, 2009 - 4:09pm.

"Free-agent right-hander Ben Sheets underwent successful surgery on his right elbow Tuesday and is hopeful of returning after the All-Star break..."
- Ken Rosenthal, 2/12/2009

Otherwise I would agree whole-heartedly!

I must have left out the cost/risk issue

Submitted by charlie on February 19, 2009 - 8:34am.

I read an article on his surgery and his surgeon apparenty is very optimistic on his recovery. Becasue he is in recovery/rehab, Sheets should be able to be had for a couple of years for a relatively low price. Particularly given the current economy and market dynamics. He's a 3-pitch guy with good control but is succeptible to lh-hitting, so if I was him, I'd take advantage of that rehab to pick up a slider or cutter to go along with the fastball-curve-changeup repertoire. Also, since he'd be coming back from injury, he'd be able to start at the middle or rear of the rotation where he'd have a distinct advantage against real back-of-the-rotation pitchers. He'd have a huge impact on our w-l results.

AS to catching: House is a .167 hitter in the ML's. He could well be another 4-A player. I'd like to wait and see what 19 yo Jose Bonilla (.987 OPS in AZL in 37 games) can do in the next couple of years. Olivo is a decent option if he can cut down on his strikeouts and Pena certainly can hit, so I wouldn't wig-out too much on getting in another catcher unless we run into the reincarnation of Bench/Fisk/Simmons or Mickey Cochrane... I'd try to trade Buck into a situation where he's likely to be an everyday catcher in a lineup better able to protect him as a hitter in excahnge for either more pitching or a good rf prospect.

If we were to look to improve up the middle, rather than getting Hudson, I'd go after 34yo ss Orlando Cabrera and shift Aviles to 2b. His .281/8/57 and his glove would be a welcome addition and would mitigate any sophomore regression that Aviles might have. A 2 year contract with mutual option for a 3rd year might be good enough.

Personally, I think that if a few things bounce the right way, we can walk away with the Central. Remember how the last couple of years they almost gave Detroit the Central before a game was played??? Remember how they imploded? Depth is very important in a 162 game league and of all the teams in the Central, we can weather injuries best. The lineup should provide better than 4 run/game which puts us on the borderline for production of good teams. Add to that a good rotation and a lights-out closer, and we have a pretty good chance if our middle relief and set-up pitching holds up and we can avoid losing streaks of more than 2-3 games. Granted, we would need for the opposition to have key injuries or at least a rash of injuries to keep the wins total to win in the Central in the 85-87 games-won range. I see it as doable even with our present cast.

Look at our team and look at the rest of the Central.

Hudson is not worth the draft pick and the $$$$

Submitted by charlie on February 18, 2009 - 12:46pm.

Hudson is a good option at 2-b for most teams. That being said, he's not worth the price of admission given the market conditions. Hudson is not going to want to stay here unless we're the last option and as soon as demand perks up, you can count on him not being happy in KC. He's also a bit brittle and not likely to be a long term solution.

If we do have options for playing at 2-b coming up the pipeline, Hudson is too much money. I'd recomend looking at Ray Durham whose .289/6/45 with the Mariners last year gave him a .813 OPS makes him a stp-gap starter in '09 and a complementary piece in 2010, not to mention a good role model for guys like Callaspo and Aviles. He should be able to be had for a lower wage than OH who is in his prime and less likely to be a realist about his market value.

I agree that GMDM is putting together a team of decent, if not impressive, hitters who should support each other up and down the lineup and provide pitchers enough of a threat so they won't be able to let up while not having much of drop in production if there is an injury.

Now, if we look at a potential Royals roster, we can possibly do without
+Buck: $2.4m
+TPJr: $420k
+Peralta: 640k
+Gobble: 1.35m
+German: 1.2m
TOTAL SAVINGS: $6.01 m
And then we would have a good amount of money to pursue Durham and still have some money left over to snap some other bargain.

Even if we don't get OH or RD, I feel we're solid enough at 2-b that we should be ok. I'd still flush out TPJr, Gobble, Peralta (too old) and I'd trade Gload (I'd keep Shealy because of his bat) and get Sheets. Teahen will likely prove his worth throughout the year as he can play well at 3-b and RF (he has a very credible arm there)he also can spell in lf, 1-b (not that I think he will ahve to) and maybe 2-b.

First argument

Submitted by RoyalsRetro on February 18, 2009 - 12:30pm.

Makes some sense. We don't know what Hudson is asking for, it could be more than we could make room for.

But the second one is absurd. We wouldn't sign a Gold Glover because we would be worried about our BACKUP catcher? The Red Sox had a stinker at backup catcher last year (and at starting catcher). They still managed to win. Who was Tampa Bay's backup catcher? Philly's?

The backup catcher needs to be a warm body who plays once a week. Brayan Pena can more than do that. Or JR House. Or Vance Wilson. Or heck Matt Tupman.

As for Teahen, it would stink to lose him, but if it means bringing in Hudson, I think you do it. Bloomquist can also fill in at a lot of positions. GMs should plan for the worst, but they shouldn't do so if it means sacrificing the chance to get good talent. The Yanks don't go out and spend $3 million on reserve infielders because they're afraid Derek Jeter will get hurt. Sometimes you have to take a chance. If a guy gets hurt, well that sucks, but you move on.

The only things that concern me about O-Dawg are (a) the draft pick, and (b) his declining defense. Other than that, he seems like a no-brainer to bring into town.

+1 totally agree

Submitted by RAM_Doubler on February 19, 2009 - 1:02pm.

Winning is all about risk-reward. Those guys could get hurt with or without Hudson here. The real issue is finding guys who can help you win a championship.

If Bloomquist had to play 40 games at 2nd while Hudson was out, I'd take that over Teahan for 162. The only thing we ensure ourselves of by settling for mediocrity is another mediocre season.

If we have injuries, Bloomquist/German/Callaspo can sub in the infield, and Gload and Jason Smith are ready to help in the outfield. Having a half dozen utility guys gets you a team that does lots of stuff well, but nothing great.

Not trying to create the best team you can because you fear injuries is absurd. You need back-ups, yes, but at the price of wins? No way, no how. It's the kind of loser's mentality GMDM is trying to shake...

I believe Smith is not on the 40-man roster

Submitted by charlie on February 19, 2009 - 3:31pm.

Also German's fielding is a liability, although his bat is not. Bloomquist makes him and TPJr expendable. It is not "fear of injuries" it is a reality that, given bugetary constraints, we could only look to sign a certain price-player.

Bloomie is more likely to be Aviles insurance policy, in the event his rookie year production was a fluke. Teahen is more of a corner OF/3B replacement.

Now, if Glass sells the team to Steinbrenner, we can look forward to unlimmited payroll.

draft pick

Submitted by drewfuss on February 18, 2009 - 11:26am.

As a loyal Royal, I have become accustomed to having the June Amateur Draft be the most exciting part of the year... When June rolls around and the team is already in the toilet, it's enchanting to dream about the future and the draft. But I don't think that will be the case this year or next, and I don't think paying several hundred thousand dollars to a (likely) HS kid in the second round (~ #55 pick overall)that may never reach the majors (or may in 4-5 years) is a better idea than plugging in a gold-glove, decent-hitting, big-league second baseman for opening day 2009.

But you're right, the draft is central to Dayton's well-publicized plan on re-building. And taking the pick may prove to be best in the looooong run. I think you CAN still have a good draft with 39 instead of 40 picks, though.

Plus, in the unlikely scenario Grudz goes somewhere for the league minimum, I believe we would pick up an extra pick (he was Type B I think).

Hudson

Submitted by crawford on February 18, 2009 - 11:05am.

Orlando would cost us our #2 pick in the draft, and the Glass's would surely lower the budget for the draft if he splurges during training camp. We're only in year # 2 of "building the team with prospects, with the draft". Gosh darnit just stick with the plan for a few years. Stick to ANY plan for more than 6 months..

Why not cut ?

Submitted by RoyalsonRadioetc on February 18, 2009 - 10:01am.

Teahen can be spelled Bloomquist spelled Hernandez

Buck can be spelled Pena spelled House/Tupman

Joel Peralta spelled DiNardo etc.

Plus German is just taking a spot from Callaspo.

The bottom line is Dayton has the biggest budget in Royals history but can't manage it.
Glass is a Walmart guy he should realize Hudson is on the clearance rack.
www.royalsonradioetc.com

The big issue is not the money.

Submitted by jayhawkowensjunior on February 18, 2009 - 9:31am.

Hudson is a Type A free agent. The issue is "Is Hudson worth losing your second round draft pick this year?" If I could be convinced that he was the missing piece, the one guy who will put us over the top, I'd say ... well, I'd say "Maybe." But I'm not convinced.

Despite a seemingly good draft or two, our minor league system is very, very thin. And the only, ONLY way we're ever going to compete in the long term is to have at least another 3-4 good drafts -- which I suppose you can do without a second round pick here and there, but it doesn't make things easier.

Is Hudson going to add more than a win or so? And that's assuming he's going to stay healthy, and is not going into the statistical decline that most middle infielders hit at about Hudson's age. I just don't see it.

You left out the good parts

Submitted by drewfuss on February 18, 2009 - 8:40am.

Sam, Sam, you left out all the more realistic (non-Teahen) parts...

Buck
+Peralta: 640k
+Gobble: 1.35m
+German: 1.2m

We DO have other lefthanders capable (I think) of replacing Gobble - Musser is one that comes to mind, HoRam if not a starter, Bale, etc, + Mahay.

German's presence on the roster at 1.2m is not necessary... In this scenario we'd still have Teahen as a four-corners guy, Callaspo and Bloomquist on the infield, plus 1000 1B to sort through (Gload would be guaranteed money, but Shealy probably belongs on the above list, too).

As for Buck, who says you can't sign a AAA insurance-policy backup for something like half-a-million bucks (pun only sort of intended).

If we don't go get Hudson, I think the excuses are going to sound pretty hollow.

What if?

Submitted by Darin on February 18, 2009 - 8:18am.

I'm not up on the contract situations of everybody on the roster, but what if the Royals were to trade Ryan Shealy for minor leaguers, or cut Ross Gload (settle down, Trey, it's just a hypothetical), or both. They've got a logjam at 1B, and somebody has to go. Would that free up enough $$$?

Failing that, David Glass could possibly mend some fences with Royals fans by just adding a little to the payroll to make signing Hudson possible.

tangledupinroyalblue.blogspot.com

I believe

Submitted by RoyalsRetro on February 18, 2009 - 12:32pm.

Ross Gload's contract is guaranteed. We're on the hook. Great move Dayton.

Money Money Money

Submitted by UncleFester on February 18, 2009 - 8:57am.

Why is nobody talking about whether the financial crisis is affecting the Royals' plans? Are the ticket sales up or down? Are sponsors renewing their in-park and broadcast advertising? Are the renovations having any impact on drawing in new fans and corporate suite buyers?

I think the real world's going to have a lot more say on a potential Orlando Hudson offer than any fantasy roster-shakeup ploys we're hearing.

I believe they'd already hit bottom

Submitted by charlie on February 18, 2009 - 12:49pm.

The Royals are not the cream of the league and I doubt their sponsors have to pay top dollar. They are still a relative bargain.

Orlando Hudson is already missing some spring training. For a player like him, this could spell "Disabled List".

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